The path to transforming agriculture is clear; the challenge is getting leaders to appreciate the value of agri-prosperity.

The Iran War is the latest in a series of setbacks in Africa’s quest to gear up development and achieve prosperity, peace and security. Increased conflict, limited prospects for economic growth, multilateralism under attack, and the United States’ (US) retreat from globalisation demand a rethink of the traditional wisdom.

A new playbook is needed, and an African agriculture revolution may hold the key.

Food security on the continent faces dire straits. An International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies report using July 2025 data said up to 307-million (20%) of Africa’s population was suffering from hunger. In addition, stunting in children under five stands at 30.7%, making both malnutrition and food insecurity an intergenerational risk in Africa.

The impact of declining global aid and the US’ attacks on the multilateral system could exacerbate this grave reality. World Food Programme projections are already devastating. Declining, and sometimes the complete withdrawal, of humanitarian aid, together with rising conflict, forced migration and climate change are now the four drivers of this downward spiral.

Adding to the crisis is the US-Israel war with Iran, which will likely be a severe threat multiplier for African agriculture. The conflict is set to have repercussions in four waves.

The first and most immediate is energy inflation due to the interruption of crude oil and liquified natural gas moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Closely related is the restricted movement of urea and its impact on fertiliser supply. This is a potential disaster for Africa’s agriculture, which depends on fertiliser imports, and will strain all levels of farming, from family gardens to high-level commercial farms.

Further, Africa’s model for agricultural development, as expressed in the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme, is deeply energy-dependent. Most farming relies heavily on fossil fuels, with diesel dominating. Oil price spikes and declining availability have already become a primary constraint to farming, casting a shadow on Africa’s future agricultural prosperity.

The second wave concerns damage to the global trading system. Africa’s agricultural imports include cereals (primarily wheat and rice), edible oils, fats, meats, dairy and sugar. Imports are valued at up to US$100-billion a year, and are pivotal to Africa’s food security.

Agricultural exports are also a cornerstone of Africa’s economy. Leading exporters are South Africa (the largest global exporter of citrus by volume); Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda, which dominate coffee and tea exports; Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, which lead in cocoa; and Tanzania, which leads in oilseed and spice exports. Disrupted and higher-priced logistics will stimulate short-term mitigation choices and possibly affect long-term trade connectedness worldwide.

The third wave of repercussions from the Middle East conflict is the potential steepening of global inequality. The global south has less capacity to absorb economic and other shocks, which not only reduce food security but also affect longer-term development ambitions, such as the African Union’s Agenda 2063.

The fourth wave of impact is political. Economic hardship and rising living costs put pressure on the state’s political capital and levels of citizen trust. The capacity of Africa’s agricultural enterprises – which produce, process or distribute agricultural products – to create more jobs, particularly for youth, is at risk. Resistance, protest and political change could increase, making development, peace and security goals even harder to achieve.

The Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA) is an African-led organisation that aims to transform subsistence agriculture into sustainable income sources for smallholder farmers. In June, AGRA brought together thought leaders from multinational corporations, global funds, multilateral banks, academia, civil society and agriculture leadership to discuss these challenges.

The workshop agreed on four areas for attention. First, Africa must accelerate its agricultural industrialisation by: diversifying crops and livestock; supporting small and medium enterprise development and proliferation; job creation focused on marginalised groups; and a complete value chain approach – what the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization calls ‘farm to fork’. Post-harvest processing will have the largest opportunities for job creation and business development.

Second, an enabling environment for intra-African trade is a priority, with the African Continental Free Trade Area as the primary mechanism. Inter-country agricultural corridors are needed for trade and local value chains, with appropriate incentives and rules in place.

Building on the lessons from the current Trade Corridors experiments is key. Successful examples of moving minerals and other goods are the North-South Corridor connecting South Africa to Zimbabwe, Malawi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Zambia, as well as the Djibouti-Addis Corridor and the Abidjan-Lagos Corridor. Including agricultural produce and agri-processed goods will be an important catalyst for African agriculture.

Third, as global pressures to transform to low-carbon systems grow, Africa can lead with low-carbon farming, processing, packaging, logistics and retail. The use of artificial intelligence can also stimulate the next agricultural revolution, and Africa could become a global epicentre.

The ability to scale up is critical for all three interventions. Africa has excellent pilots and many lessons from elsewhere in the world. We must move to scale with bankable investment cases, and then – as the development and commercial banks and investment houses continuously assure us – the funding will flow.

Fourth, and most important, is to persuade African leaders across all sectors that agri-prosperity is a key pillar of the continent’s peace and security architecture and should be treated as such.

Written by Dhesigen Naidoo, Research Associate, Climate Risk and Human Security Project, ISS Pretoria & Alice Ruhweza, President, Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA)