South Africa has 168-million chickens. What does their location tell us about food security and the resilience of this key agricultural sub-sector?

1. A sector built on scale

South Africa’s commercial poultry flock reached 168.5-million birds in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to the latest South African Poultry Association (SAPA) Provincial Distribution Report. The figures were collected through SAPA’s avian influenza (AI) survey database, making them among the most current and granular production statistics available for any agricultural commodity in the country.

Of the 168.5-million birds, 138.8-million (82.4%) were broilers, which are chickens raised for meat, distributed across 693 farms. A further 29.7-million (17.6%) were layers, egg-producing hens, housed on 282 farms. Together, the sector spans 975 farms nationwide.

The poultry industry remains South Africa’s largest agricultural subsector by gross value of production and is the country’s most affordable source of animal protein. Changes in the geographic distribution of poultry production have implications that extend beyond agriculture, influencing food inflation, employment, feed grain demand, transport logistics, and household food security. The provincial distribution data allows us to examine not only where chickens are located, but also how the industry’s spatial structure shapes economic resilience and market performance.

2. North West takes the crown

The North West province emerged as the undisputed leader in South Africa’s poultry sector, housing 35.57-million birds and commanding 21.1% of the national flock. Its dominance is most pronounced in the broiler segment, where it held 31.88-million birds, or 23.0% of all broilers nationally.

Mpumalanga followed as the second-largest broiler-producing province with 26.82-million birds (19.3%), while the Western Cape ranked third with 23.15-million broilers (16.7%). Gauteng was fourth with 16.36-million (11.8%), and the Free State fifth with 14.13-million (10.2%). These five provinces together accounted for over 80% of South Africa’s total broiler flock

North West’s leadership reflects deep structural advantages: the province sits at the centre of a dense maize-growing belt, reducing feed input costs for broiler operations. Combined with well-established processing infrastructure and vertically integrated supply chains, North West has long been the natural anchor of South Africa’s chicken meat economy. Mpumalanga’s second-place position reinforces this picture, with the Victor Khanye and Lekwa local municipalities alone housing 9.18 and 7.90-million broiler birds respectively, the two most densely stocked broiler municipalities in the country.

3. Feed costs drive location decisions

Feed typically accounts for between 60% and 70% of poultry production costs, making access to maize and soybean-producing regions a critical determinant of competitiveness. The dominance of North West, Mpumalanga and the Free State reflects more than historical investment patterns; it reflects the economics of feed procurement. Locating poultry operations close to feed-producing regions reduces transport costs and exposure to input price volatility. As feed costs fluctuate in response to climate variability and global commodity markets, provinces with strong feed-grain linkages are likely to retain a structural advantage in poultry production

4. Egg production: a different geography

Figure 3 reflects the provincial distribution of egg industry flock. Notably, the provincial map looks strikingly different. Gauteng leads the nation in layer bird numbers, housing 6.70-million hens - 22.5% of the national layer flock. The Western Cape follows with 5.55-million birds (18.6%), and the Free State ranks third with 4.55-million (15.3%). North West is fourth at 3.70-million (12.4%), and KwaZulu-Natal fifth at 3.32-million (11.2%).

This geographical split reflects the fundamentally different economics of egg versus meat production. Eggs are perishable and time-sensitive commodities. Layer farms therefore cluster near major consumer markets to minimise transport time and cold-chain costs. Gauteng, as the country’s largest and most densely populated metropolitan area, naturally attracts the highest concentration of egg production capacity. The Western Cape similarly benefits from Cape Town’s large urban market.

At municipal level, egg production intensity is especially concentrated. The Drakenstein local municipality in the Western Cape houses 2.63-million layer birds, while Gauteng’s City of Tshwane and Mogale City hold 2.57-million and 1.79-million respectively. The Swartland municipality in the Western Cape adds a further 1.44-million birds. For egg farms, the highest farm density per municipality is found in the City of Tshwane (21 farms), Ventersdorp/Tlokwe in North West (17 farms), and Mogale City in Gauteng (14 farms).

The concentration of broiler production in North West highlights the importance of agglomeration economies within modern agriculture. Poultry enterprises benefit from proximity to feed suppliers, hatcheries, processing facilities, veterinary services, and transport networks. These clustering effects lower production costs and improve efficiency, reinforcing the province’s competitive advantage. However, they may also create barriers to entry for smaller producers in less developed poultry infrastructure and weaker market linkages, potentially contributing to uneven regional development within the poultry value chain.

5. The full national picture

Table 1 below presents the complete provincial breakdown of broiler and layer bird numbers as recorded in the SAPA 4Q2025 Provincial Distribution Report. The data show the absolute bird counts and percentage shares for each province across both industry segments.

6. Inside the farms: structure and scale

The 975 farms in SAPA’s AI database represent a highly stratified production system. Within the broiler industry, the 693 farms span four functional types: 25 grandparent farms, which form the apex of the breeding pyramid and produce the parent stock for the commercial broiler industry housing 622 512 birds, 77 parent rearing farms (5.43-million birds), 135 broiler breeder farms (9.20-million birds), and 456 broiler rearing farms that account for the bulk of commercial production with 123.52-million birds.

The egg industry’s 282 farms are similarly tiered: six grandparent farms (23 559 birds), seven parent-rearing farms (174 500 birds), 20 layer breeder farms (538 867 birds), 37 pullet rearing farms (6.52-million birds), and 212 layer farms generating the majority of commercial egg production at 22.48-million birds. SAPA acknowledges that laying-hen numbers on egg farms are considerably under-reported in the AI database.

Beyond birds: The employment footprint

Poultry production generates employment throughout an extensive value chain that includes feed manufacturing, hatcheries, transport, processing, packaging, veterinary services, retail, and food service industries. Provinces with large poultry populations therefore benefit not only from direct farm employment but also from significant downstream economic activity. The concentration of production in a handful of provinces suggests that poultry’s employment and income multipliers are similarly concentrated, raising important questions about how the sector can contribute more broadly to rural development in lagging regions

6.1 Broiler industry

Large commercial farms (> 40 001 birds/cycle): 544 farms — 78.5% of all broiler farms

Small commercial farms (1 501–40 000 birds/cycle): 114 farms — 16.4%

Subsistence farms (1–1 500 birds/cycle): 35 farms — 5.1%

6.2 Egg industry

Large commercial farms (> 50 001 birds): 144 farms — 51.1% of all egg farms

Small commercial farms (501–50 000 birds): 119 farms — 42.2%

Subsistence farms (1–500 birds): 19 farms — 6.7%

At the extreme upper end of the size distribution, 15 broiler farms house more than 700 000 birds each. Farms in the 200 001 to 400 000 bird range dominate the landscape, with 238 farms in this category. This concentration of production in a relatively small number of large operations is a defining structural feature of South Africa’s commercial poultry sector.

7. Data as a competitive advantage

A distinguishing feature of South Africa’s commercial poultry sector, relative to other livestock subsectors, is its access to timely and structured production data. The provincial distribution figures are generated through SAPA’s AI survey, in which producers provide actual bird numbers alongside laboratory test results. This quarterly data collection cycle allows the industry to monitor changes in production volume and provincial concentration on a near-real-time basis.

The value of this data infrastructure extends beyond market monitoring. In a sector periodically exposed to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks, quarterly provincial and municipal bird density data supports faster biosecurity response planning, improved risk zoning, and more targeted surveillance. By contrast, many other livestock sectors in South Africa still rely on data collected at much longer intervals, limiting the ability of government, researchers, and industry to respond to shocks in real time.

Reliable and timely agricultural data are themselves a strategic economic asset. Information asymmetries often undermine investment decisions and policy responses in agricultural markets. The poultry industry’s quarterly reporting system reduces uncertainty by providing producers, investors, and regulators with current production information. It also strengthens the sector’s ability to respond to shocks.

8. Strategic implications

8.1 Concentration creates efficiency and fragility

North West and Mpumalanga together hold 42.5% of all broiler birds. This level of geographic concentration enables logistical efficiency and economies of scale, but it also means that any major disruption - an HPAI outbreak, severe drought, energy infrastructure failure, or road-network shock - in these two provinces could affect nearly half of South Africa’s national broiler supply within a single quarter.

8.2 The broiler-layer geographic split requires differentiated policy

Broiler and layer farms operate under different economic logics and in different locations. Broiler policy interventions, including feed-cost support, water and energy infrastructure, and biosecurity investment, must prioritise North West, Mpumalanga, and the Western Cape. Egg sector policy, by contrast, must engage Gauteng and the Western Cape as the primary production and distribution anchors. A one-size policy framework risks missing both.

8.3 Small and subsistence producers remain a policy gap

The SAPA database, though, is not a full census. SAPA notes that the number of subsistence farmers in the database is not an accurate representation of the total. The 35 subsistence broiler farms and 19 subsistence egg farms on the database are therefore indicative, not comprehensive. Understanding the full scale of smallholder and subsistence poultry production and its relationship to food security at household and community level requires a complementary data collection effort beyond the AI survey framework.

8.4 Poultry remains central to food affordability

Chicken meat and eggs are among the most accessible sources of animal protein for South African households, particularly lower-income consumers. Any disruption to production in the major poultry-producing provinces has the potential to influence food prices and household welfare. The concentration of production therefore elevates poultry from a sector-specific concern to a broader food security issue. Strengthening resilience in poultry production is consequently linked to national objectives of improving nutrition and maintaining affordable food supplies.

8.5 Scale economies and market concentration

The dominance of large commercial operations reflects the substantial economies of scale present in modern poultry production. While scale can improve efficiency and lower consumer prices, it may also contribute to increased market concentration. Policymakers therefore face the challenge of balancing productivity gains associated with large-scale production against broader objectives of inclusivity, competition, and transformation within the agricultural sector. Future industry growth strategies should consider mechanisms that improve participation opportunities for emerging producers without undermining sector competitiveness.

9. Conclusion

South Africa entered 2026 with a commercial chicken flock of 168.5-million birds, a figure that underscores the scale and strategic importance of the poultry sector within the national food economy. North West’s dominant position in broiler production, Gauteng’s leadership in layer numbers, and the geographic concentration of production in a small number of high-capacity provinces define the sector’s spatial structure.

The 4Q2025 SAPA data reveal more than the location of South Africa’s chickens. They highlight an industry characterised by increasing scale, geographic concentration, and strong integration with feed, processing, and distribution networks. These features have supported the growth of a highly efficient poultry sector capable of supplying affordable protein to-millions of consumers. At the same time, they expose the industry to concentration risks associated with disease outbreaks, infrastructure failures, and climate-related shocks. The challenge for policymakers and industry stakeholders is therefore not simply to grow the poultry sector, but to ensure that future growth strengthens resilience, supports transformation, and contributes to long-term food security and economic development.

Written by Whitney Matli and Portia Mdwebi, Econ3x3