Youth frustration fuels calls to prevent Ruto from winning a second term, even as opposition splits strengthen his prospects for 2027.

As next year’s presidential elections approach, Kenya’s voting public are calling for accountability from incumbent President William Ruto’s government – and for him to serve just a single term. The slogan of ‘Wantam!’ (one term), reflects this public dissatisfaction with his administration.

But the country’s opposition is increasingly fractured, giving hope to those who back Ruto’s August 2027 re-election. That campaign has been christened ‘Tutam!’ (two terms) or ‘Kumi bila break!’, meaning two uninterrupted terms.

Recent disputes over the preferred presidential candidate within key opposition outfits such as Linda Mwananchi could ultimately hand Ruto his second term. This outcome is made more likely by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission’s (IEBC) tight deadline of 15 October for political parties to submit their leaders’ names and party symbols.

In the absence of the veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga, who died last year, many assumed that the opposition’s political engine had run out of steam. But it was Ruto’s political bloc that fractured after the impeachment of former deputy president Rigathi Gachagua in 2024 for promoting ethnic division and undermining the president’s authority.

Gachagua has since emerged as the most popular opposition figure in his vote-rich backyard of Mount Kenya, where the IEBC estimated over seven-million voters had registered by April 2026.

Odinga’s death left members of his party without direction, with his once-popular Orange Democratic Movement Party (ODM) now morphing into two: Linda Mwananchi and Linda Ground, meaning ‘protect the people’ and ‘protect the ground’, respectively. Linda Mwananchi remains pro-opposition, while Linda Ground, headed by Odinga’s older brother Oburu Odinga, is government-leaning.

Although fractured and lacking a clear presidential candidate, the opposition has rallied supporters by calling for Ruto to be a one-term president. They cite his underperformance and worsening human rights record that has seen arrests, detention, forced disappearances and extra-judicial killings, mostly of youths and activists. Recent reports say that since January 2025, over 40 Kenyans, mostly youth, have been tortured and killed in police cells.

The call is fuelled by increased graft, with Ruto a finalist for the title of the world's most corrupt president, according to the 2024 Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project. Opposition supporters also cite high taxation regimes, especially the introduction of new taxes through the Housing and Social Health levies, which deduct 1.5% and 2.75% respectively from all employees’ monthly incomes.

The one-term call against Ruto originated from last year’s Democracy for the Citizens Party campaigns in Mount Kenya, driven by disaffection with Ruto’s leadership and grievances following Gachagua’s impeachment. Gachagua christened it ‘Wantam!’, galvanising discontent with Ruto’s performance.

While ‘Wantam!’ has gained momentum, the pro-Ruto ‘Tutam!’ call has also gained traction. Ruto’s re-election is backed by his party, the United Democratic Alliance, and the ODM’s Linda Ground faction, who argue that his presidency has brought equity in the distribution of resources.

Ruto’s supporters point to large-scale infrastructure development under his leadership, including the proposed extension of the Standard Gauge Railway from Naivasha to Kisumu, the Rironi-Mau Summit Highway expansion and construction under the Affordable Housing Programme.

They note the development of new roads, such as the 205 km Isiolo-Kulamawe-Modogashe road in historically marginalised north-eastern Kenya. They also cite the appointment of cabinet ministers from the opposition ODM following the Odinga-Ruto pact to form a broad-based government, which shows inclusivity. According to his backers, Ruto has outperformed all his predecessors in providing affordable medical care through the Social Health Authority scheme.

ODM Linda Ground supporters also highlight his development record in areas previously considered opposition zones, such as Kisumu, Migori, Nyamira, Kisii, Homa Bay and Siaya counties. They point to water projects built in Homa Bay and Siaya, as well as the Lake Victoria Water and Sanitation Project in Kisumu.

Ruto becoming a ‘Wantam!’ president would be unprecedented in Kenya. The call has gained traction because it symbolises youth discontent with the current administration. However, it can only be achieved if the opposition unites and fields a single major candidate capable of challenging Ruto. It would also require massive youth voter registration and voter mobilisation on polling day.

Latest Mizani Africa polling shows that Ruto’s approval rating has increased to 38.7% since July and August. The same poll places his closest competitor, Kalonzo Musyoka, at 27.5%, while Edwin Sifuna is third at 13.2%. Ruto is clearly gaining traction despite the popular ‘Wantam!’ slogan. If the opposition remains divided, the president looks likely to win a second term.

One priority is that Kenyan voters have a free and fair democratic space to exercise their constitutional right. Already, rising political intolerance and ‘political goonism’, which sees politicians paying youth gangs to disrupt and intimidate rival supporters, is a worrying trend.

Another priority is a government that can translate political rhetoric into actionable outcomes beyond the election. Failure to do so could see a rising tide of informed young people determined to enforce a ‘Wantam!’ rule for all future elected leaders.

Written by Guyo Chepe Turi, Research Officer, East Africa Peace and Security Governance, ISS Nairobi & Willis Okumu, Senior Researcher, East Africa Peace and Security Governance Programme, ISS Nairobi