The global energy transition is entering a new phase shaped by geopolitical uncertainty, rising electricity demand and structural changes in the global energy landscape. Following the outcomes of the First Global Stocktake and the UAE Consensus at COP28, the challenge is no longer only about setting targets, but about delivering integrated implementation pathways capable of accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels (TAFF) while strengthening energy security, resilience and sustainable development.

Under IRENA’s revised 1.5°C Scenario, electricity rises from around 23% of global final energy consumption today to 35% by 2035 and above 50% by 2050, becoming the dominant global energy carrier. Electrification, supported by renewable power deployment, grid enhancement and energy efficiency improvements, represents a “no-regret” option that can simultaneously reduce emissions, strengthen energy security, improve affordability and support green industrialisation and competitiveness. At the same time, sustainable fuels such as biofuels, hydrogen and their derivatives remain essential for hard-to-abate sectors including aviation, shipping and parts of industry.

The report also highlights that infrastructure is becoming one of the defining challenges of the transition. Rapid electrification and renewable deployment will require major expansion of grids, storage and system flexibility, alongside stronger system integration and strategic planning for the phase-out of fossil fuel infrastructure.

To support coordinated implementation, the analysis proposes a global electrification target of 35% by 2035, complemented by a corresponding target to double grid development and investment by 2035 in order to guide infrastructure expansion and system transformation.

Report by International Renewable Energy Agency