The first time Mpho Moroka voted, in 2008, she backed the African National Congress. Almost two decades on, the unemployed 38-year-old from Soweto has switched sides to the rival Democratic Alliance ahead of local elections.

"I'm from the township. I saw the poverty, I saw the struggles and I saw that there is no change," she told Reuters at a Democratic Alliance campaign rally. "So I said no more ANC."

Moroka's shift reflects a broader fragmentation of South Africa's electorate that has made outright majorities increasingly difficult to secure.

Polls suggest the historically dominant ANC will remain the biggest single party overall, but suffer a haemorrhaging of support in the November 4 votes.

In the absence of clear victories, the party and its rivals will have to sit down to the fraught task of negotiating coalitions to govern South Africa's major municipalities.

Their challenge — to get over their differences and form administrations stable enough to improve services, rebuild infrastructure and attract investment.

'WE'VE BEEN LIED TO BY MANY PARTIES'

Louw Nel, senior political analyst at Oxford Economics Africa, said polling suggested support for the ANC could fall to as low as 31% to 34% — around half the more than 60% it secured in the 2011 local elections.

But the Democratic Alliance, the second-biggest party, was not capturing all of its deserters, Nel told Reuters.

Instead, he said, voters were dispersing among a number of parties including the left-leaning Economic Freedom Fighters and uMkhonto weSizwe, led by former president Jacob Zuma. Hundreds of parties are taking part in the votes.

Signs of disaffection extend beyond Johannesburg.

In Cape Town, unemployed first-time voter Abdul Tonta, 28, said he wanted change and jobs.

"Obviously we've been lied to a lot of times ... by many parties in the past," he said. "I'm at least voting because I want to see people like me and people like my brothers having jobs as well."

'COALITIONS HOLD YOU BACK'

While some welcomed the prospect of change, others warned of downsides to a future of city hall coalition deals and closed-door negotiations.

"One problem with coalitions under the current legislation is that they are left to parties to negotiate amongst themselves," said Yunus Chamda, coordinator of the civil society group Joburg Crisis Alliance, formed in 2023 to deal with what he called "coalition chaos".

Shifting political alliances and a revolving door of mayors have contributed to worsening services and financial decline in Johannesburg, including by giving small parties too much power and allowing politicians to evade accountability, Chamda said.

Johannesburg's previous two mayors were from a party that had only three out of 270 seats in the city council. The city has seen seven mayors since 2021.

"It's created this huge instability. And when you confront political parties, they are able to divert the attack to the fact that it's a coalition," Chamda said.

Analysts said one route to stable municipal governments in highly contested municipalities could be for the ANC and the DA, traditional rivals that joined forces in the national government after the 2024 election, to replicate that arrangement locally.

"The most important question in cities like Johannesburg, Tshwane and Ekurhuleni is whether they will produce a stable government," Nel said.

Both parties would need to weigh the political cost of governing together across national, provincial and municipal levels. Neither is enthusiastic about the prospect.

"Coalitions make it difficult for us to fully implement our programme," the ANC's Johannesburg regional chairperson, Loyiso Masuku, said at a campaign stop last month.

The DA's candidate for mayor of Johannesburg, Helen Zille, said partners often don't respect the agreements that were signed.

"By definition, coalitions hold you back," she said.