South African inflation expectations stabilised in the third quarter, a survey showed on Wednesday, after a steep rise in the previous quarter because of the oil price shock triggered by the Iran war.

The quarterly survey is commissioned by the central bank and guides its thinking on the appropriate level of interest rates.

The average forecast of analysts, business people and trade union officials was for headline consumer inflation of 4.4% this year, unchanged from the second-quarter survey.

The average forecasts for 2027 and 2028 declined to 4.0% and 3.8%, respectively, from 4.2% and 3.9%. Those forecasts are important as the central bank says interest rate changes affect the economy with a lag of about 12 to 24 months.

Inflation stood at 4.3% year on year in July, the latest month for which price data is available.

The central bank targets inflation of 3% with a 1-percentage-point tolerance band either side of that.

The bank surprised investors and economists by keeping its main lending rate unchanged in July after its first rate hike in three years in May.

Its next rate announcement is scheduled for September 23.