On 9 July 2011, the world’s newest nation was born. The Republic of Sudan had been in conflict for the majority of its independence since 1956. South Sudan gained its autonomy from the North following a referendum that saw 98.83% of its population vote for secession.⁽²⁾ Only one year after this landmark event however, South Sudan finds itself at odds with the growing number of challenges it is facing. Observers of and participants in the process leading to South Sudan’s newly obtained sovereignty indicated that a joint effort by Government, the country’s citizens and external agents such as the African Union (AU) and the United States (US) was required to contribute to a stable transition – this in order to counter the country’s underdevelopment and lack of skills amongst newly elected officials.

The fragility of South Sudan’s sovereign infancy has been weakened by corruption, ethnic violence, and a growing humanitarian crisis. Coupled with these features, is the South’s dispute with the North over the transportation costs of Southern oil across a pipeline that runs through northern territory, ultimately cutting off 98% of the country’s public sector revenue.⁽³⁾ Together these challenges have created uncertainty and dashed optimism regarding a prosperous future for South Sudan. Internally, these circumstances have pushed the country to the brink of political and economic meltdown.

Religious leaders from both Sudan and South Sudan stated in a joint pastoral letter that they “dream of two nations at peace with each other, co-operating to make the best use of their God-given resources, promoting free interaction between their citizens, living side by side in solidarity and mutual respect, celebrating their shared history and forgiving any wrongs they may have done to each other.”⁽⁴⁾ This CAI paper briefly presents the challenges the two nations face in achieving this vision and in building stable and prosperous nations. Recent setbacks in progress toward achieving these goals are also outlined.

It’s not just oil

In one of Africa’s least developed nations,⁽⁵⁾ corruption remains one of the greatest problems. In a brave attempt to combat corruption and to maintain Government’s credibility, South Sudan’s president, Salva Kiir, wrote to 75 current and former Government officials in May 2012 asking them to return around US$ 4 billion that they had stolen from state coffers. To date, only US$ 60 million of the US$ 4 billion has been given back, this through a bank account in Kenya where anyone who has taken Government funds can anonymously return them.⁽⁶⁾ A large-scale anti-corruption campaign has also been launched. The canvass instructs all public officials to declare their assets to the South Sudan Anti-Corruption Commission (SSACC).

The ability of any anti-corruption campaigns to be successful, however, remains in question considering the generally poor state of the country’s justice system. The Southern Sudan Police Service (SSPS) remains under-equipped, ill-trained, largely illiterate, and insufficiently deployed to manage the conflicts between the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) and opposing militia.  This leaves the SPLA, whose appetite for fighting has resulted in the killing of innocent civilians, unlawful beatings and the displacement of people as a result of looting and the destruction of private property, to fill much of the policing void.

Furthermore, the systems that exist to enforce justice for crimes such as corruption are weak. This is due to the shortage of qualified staff and the application of customary law, both of which lead to low conviction rates and poor case management. Arbitrary arrests, detentions in poorly equipped holding cells and a lack of proper legal assistance are commonplace in South Sudan.

The inadequacies of the justice system extend well beyond its ability to enforce the law in cases of alleged corruption however. Children, innocent or once part of the SPLA army, are tried as and detained with adults, often awaiting trial for extended periods without continuing their education within the prison system. To date, South Sudan does not have a dedicated facility or child reformatory to which children in conflict with the law can go. In a report published by Human Rights Watch in June 2012, one teenager in Juba prison had been on remand for 12 months and had not yet been to court and another had been held at a secret location for 15 days and was beaten by security officials before he was taken to a police station.⁽⁷⁾ Cases such as these are used as frequent examples of human rights abuses in the publication.

Sadly South Sudan’s barriers to growth and development do not end with corruption and the justice system. South Sudan is also facing a severe humanitarian crisis. A large proportion of the country’s children, estimated to be 60% of the total population, now live in refugee camps.⁽⁸⁾ Erratic rainfall, a high inflation rate, border closures,⁽⁹⁾ and ethnic conflict have led to the United Nations (UN) estimating that 350,000 people will be displaced and in need of humanitarian assistance in South Sudan during 2012.⁽¹⁰⁾ Rising food insecurity is also of concern. Up to half of South Sudan's 9.7 million people are facing food shortages.⁽¹¹⁾

South Sudan’s relapse

Be that as it may, the biggest setback to South Sudan was its self-inflicted revenue loss due to the cessation of oil production. In January 2012, the country decided to turn off the tap over a dispute with the North around carrier charges. The South accused Sudan of theft, drafting and passing two resolutions to shut down all oil production until it had found another pipeline through which it could transport the precious resource. At the time, Khartoum announced its intention to charge the South US$ 38 per barrel for use of the pipeline which runs through Sudan; Juba was expecting to pay less than US$ 1 per barrel.⁽¹²⁾ While plans with Kenya and Ethiopia for an alternative transport route were laid, all interim solutions still remain with the South transporting its oil through the North.

The damage inflicted on the Heglig oil fields due to fighting and the loss of revenue as a result of the South’s oil embargo will impact on South Sudan’s political institutions and could have a devastating effect on its economy, reversing gains made in development so far. Global concern for the consequences of South Sudan’s decision led to the UN’s Security Council threatening to impose sanctions on the two territories if an agreement was not reached.  Any economic volatility will threaten the legitimacy of the young Government and could throw the region back into violence. In July 2012, at the AU summit in Addis Ababa, hopes that the two president’s would broker a deal were crushed after Sudan’s Foreign Minister, Ali Ahmed Karti, stated that any talks that were held between the two leaders during the summit were centred on security concerns and not on the resumption of Southern oil extraction.

The dispute between the North and the South has led to anti-Government protests in Sudan. In one instance Sudanese police used tear gas to disperse angry mobs aggrieved by high inflation which had more than doubled in one year, adding to the hardship caused by years of crises and conflicts.⁽¹³⁾ Without oil revenue, Khartoum now faces a financing gap of US$ 4.5 billion.⁽¹⁴⁾ The importation of even the most basic of foods does not bode well for businesses that have to trade in a currency whose value was reduced by a third against the US dollar and for consumers who do not have the hard currency to purchase expensive goods.⁽¹⁵⁾ Southern Sudan faces similar challenges, with the World Bank pointing out to President Kiir in March 2012 that if a resolution was not found, the country’s economy would collapse within a year.⁽¹⁶⁾

Conclusion: The political and economic future of South Sudan

On 27 September 2012, Juba and Khartoum signed a three-year transit deal in Ethiopia, outlining an agreement to restart oil exports from the South through the Northern Red Sea port. While the agreement to revive South Sudanese oil extraction and export has offered some respite from the list of Juba’s economic and political crises, officials have stated that it may take a minimum of three months for shipments to resume, while external observers point to an even longer wait of 6 to 12 months due to possible damage inflicted on oil production equipment as a result of recent fighting.

In the interim, another deal to demilitarise the border between South Sudan and the North as well as a cessation of all hostilities will serve to reduce the impact that the current humanitarian crisis is having on South Sudan. Through an understanding to protect both countries’ citizens and an economic cooperation agreement, a decrease in fighting and a reduction in the number of displaced people should assist in building a stable economy and promoting peace in South Sudan. 

These understandings, however, currently rest on the ability of both the South and the North to effectively carry out their disarmament campaigns. A small armed revolt in South Sudan’s Jonglei state, sparked by Government’s heavy handedness in the campaign, has threatened to delay oil production and new exploration initiatives even further, and also to unravel gains made in peace negotiations. By feeding on local grievances against South Sudan’s army, a small group of rebels, led by Murle militia chief David Yau Yau, has the potential to reignite doubt in Juba and Khartoum’s ability to share the region’s oil wealth equally and peacefully.⁽¹⁷⁾

While the oil sector is a vital component to the long-term economic and political success of Sudan and South Sudan, attention must be given to the challenges that the region faced prior to Juba’s secession from the North. Resolving differences, or at least finding compromises, will benefit any future diplomatic challenges the neighbours will face. Both nations undoubtedly face a rocky road ahead. If Juba and Khartoum fail to reinvent themselves in this new era, both countries will grapple with failures at any attempts to advance – both politically and economically.

Written by Daniela Kirkby ⁽¹⁾

NOTES:

(1) Contact Daniela Kirkby through Consultancy Africa Intelligence’s Africa Watch Unit ( africa.watch@consultancyafrica.com)
(2) ‘Results for the referendum of Southern Sudan’, The Southern Sudan Referendum Commission (SSRC), http://southernsudan2011.com.
(3) ‘South Sudan Inflation Eases to 43%’, Reuters Business Report, 10 September 2012, http://www.iol.co.za.
(4) Tran, M., ‘South Sudan faces economic disaster as cost of independence bites’, The Guardian, 9 July 2012, http://www.guardian.co.uk.
(5) ‘South Sudan profile’, BBC News, 22 February 2012, http://www.bbc.co.uk.
(6) ‘Corrupt Officials have Stolen US$4bn from South Sudan – Kiir’, Sudan Tribune, June 2012, http://www.sudantribune.com.
(7) ‘Prison is not for Me: Arbitrary Detention in South Sudan’, Human Rights Watch, 2012, http://www.hrw.org.
(8) ‘South Sudan’, Save the Children, July 2012, http://www.savethechildren.org.
(9)Sudan's president, Omar al-Bashir, has subsequently  authorised the reopening of all border crossings with South Sudan.
(10) ‘Onyeigo, M., ‘South Sudan: Ethnic Violence Pushes 120,000 in need of Aid’, Huffington Post, 20 January 2012, http://www.huffingtonpost.com.
(11) Tran, M., ‘South Sudan faces economic disaster as cost of independence bites’, The Guardian, 9 July 2012, http://www.guardian.co.uk.
(12)  ‘Sudan: The South goes for Sovereignty’, Africa Confidential, 3 February 2012, http://www.africa-confidential.com.
(13) ‘Security forces teargas protesters after Friday prayers’, Reuters, 13 July 2012, http://www.reuters.com.
(14) ‘Sudan Gov: Demands US$4.5 bill from S.Sudan’, Theososa News, 26 January 2012, http://thesosanews.com.
(15) Ibid.
(16) ‘South Sudan Faces Economic Collapse’, Business Report, 6 July 2012, http://www.iol.co.za
(17) Holland, H., ‘Jonglei revolt gives South Sudan a security headache’, Reuters, 30 September 2012, http://www.reuters.com.