Business organisation the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s (Sacci’s) Business Confidence Index (BCI) for September was 10.9 index points higher year-on-year at 134.3.

The continuing high international price of precious metals supported business sentiment, while slightly higher inflation, somewhat lower volumes of merchandise exports and higher energy prices had a small negative year-on-year effect on business sentiment in September, the chamber says.

The year-on-year increase in the September BCI was selective and driven by exceptional increases in inward tourists and new-vehicle sales. Increased volumes of merchandise exports and retail sales also made positive contributions.

The financial climate has become more challenging while real economic activity was marginally positive, Sacci notes.

Compared with September 2025, the business climate remained mixed, as the unstable fuel price, its effect on inflation and financial stability, and trends in global trade remain concerning.

Notable negative short-term effects on the September BCI were caused by reduced volumes of merchandise imports, less real value of building plans passed and higher energy prices, Sacci says.

Further, the BCI gave ground month-on-month in September to measure 134.3, down 0.8 index points from August, amid renewed uncertainty surrounding the crude oil price.

The BCI averaged 129.3 in the first nine months of this year, compared with 119 index points in the first nine months of 2025, despite the disturbance caused by the sharp rise in the crude oil price in April this year and the destabilising effect it had on the world and local economy.

The BCI had dropped sharply in April this year, owing to the fuel price shock, but stabilised at 125.4 in July.

Since July, the BCI recovered to 135.1 in August, which was a better level than before the oil price shock, the chamber says.

Further, Saccci notes, with concern, the expected restrained activity in the world economy this year and the rearrangement of international trade and the effect on the South African economy.

It is, however, encouraging to note some positive developments in public finance. If these tendencies are sustained in the upcoming medium-term budget, it could further enhance business confidence and encourage fixed investment based on expected higher economic growth, the chamber says.