The much-anticipated second Integrated Resource Plan, or IRP2010, originally planned for promulgation in September, is now expected by the end of October or early November, an official from the Department of Energy (DoE) said on Wednesday.

DoE deputy director-general Ompi Aphane said at a Sanea Action for Energy conference in Johannesburg, that the planning process had now progressed to a modelling stage, where the different scenarios, with regard to a range of energy mixes, were being drawn up.

Interestingly, he noted that one of these scenarios included the termination of the R142-billion Kusile coal-fired power station, which is being built in Mpumalanga province.

The first unit of the 4 800-MW plant was scheduled to come on line in 2014.

But Aphane emphasised that the cancellation of the Kusile project was only one, of many scenarios, being looked at.

Meanwhile, State-owned power utility Eskom told Engineering News Online that work and funding options for the Kusile project were continuing. "There are various scenarios being deliberated to consider the least direct cost to us, but also the impact that the introduction of carbon and emission taxes would have. The cancellation of Kusile is only one of the many different scenarios being deliberated during the IRP 2010 process."

DoE spokesperson Bheki Kumalo also stressed that in the absence of the Kusile power station, there would not be enough power in South Africa's electricity grid and that currently there were no other viable options to replace Kusile. "Accordingly, the department wishes to state categorically and without equivocation that the Kusile power station is on the table and that we are working with sister government departments and Eskom, among others, to make sure that Kusile happens," he added.

Aphane elaborated that the different scenarios considered the diverse challenges that South Africa was faced with, including the security of electricity supply, promises made by government with regard to carbon emissions, localisation, keeping a competitive edge, as well as the R80-billion funding gap that Eskom was faced with relating to the new build programme.

"The IRP 2010 will relate to a quest to diversify from electricity supply dominated by coal-fired power stations, but we also need to consider certain affordability issues.

"South Africa has made certain promises relating to the reduction of its carbon emissions subsequent to the support of developed countries, seeing that it is very clear that the country cannot afford the new generation from nuclear and renewables needed to achieve the preferred mix."

Aphane noted that the different scenarios would shortly be presented to stakeholders for consideration.

Also speaking at the event on behalf of the Energy Intensive Users Group, Xstrata Alloys executive director Mike Rossouw said that there had never been a more important time for all stakeholders to participate in the planning and resolution of South Africa's energy challenges.

"Currently, there are a lot of critics throwing stones, and not enough people in the trenches helping with the work that needs to be done," he commented.

Rossouw pointed out that South Africa's supply was once again headed for the "perfect storm", similar to 2007/8 up to around 2014/16, when Medupi and possibly Kusile come on line.

He emphasised that currently South Africa rapidly needed to get the IRP in place, which would provide it with a guideline of what needed to be done going forward.

"There will be a number of trade-offs that will have to take place, but it is also imperative that the country retains its global competitiveness in the energy sector, as this is the engine that will drive the growth needed in our economy."

From around 2011 to 2016, South Africa will have to tap into innovative measures to secure supply including demand-side management, energy conservation and energy efficiency.

Further, Eskom would have to replace its existing low-cost coal fleet by 2018, and then replace it with a more expensive fleet, whether that would include nuclear, concentrated solar power, wind or any other options.

Rossouw said that electricity prices would once again show an increase by 2018, and said that depending on the technology mix, tariff prices could increase by between 90c and R1,60.

It was important that South Africa chose a balanced plan, that would not chase away industry, seeing that the bigger part of the new generation capacity bill would be picked up by industry.

"We need real growth, in a sustainable way, that would also have to include higher-value products and the beneficiation of the country's mineral resources that will require large volumes of electricity at reasonable pricing, while also considering the amount of carbon emissions released," he concluded.