While the economic downturn seems to have bottomed out, there is a risk of a double-dip recession, the African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) warned this week, urging African countries to reduce their dependence on commodities and crude material production.

Speaking at the fiftieth Trade and Development Board (TDB) seminar, the AERC research director professor Olu Ajakaiye said that Africa's continuing dependence on raw products would increase its vulnerability to another crisis, which was "not a small threat", he emphasised.

While African economies enjoyed growth rates averaging 6% a year from 2003 to 2008, the continent's growth dropped to 1,2% in 2009, and owing to population expansion income per capita actually declined.

Ajakaiye recommended that African countries started investing in broadening its economic capacities by the training and education of Africans.

The TBD president and Luxemburg ambassador Jean Feyder said that it was vital for African nations to proceed in "adding value" to the commodities that they had long been exporting.

"Highly finished products can help countries expand their economic capacities and can yield better returns in terms of profits and job creation. African governments can boost such transformation, among other things, by supporting the building of much-needed infrastructure, increasing market access to African countries, and enhancing good governance," commented Feyder.

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development secretary-general Supachai Panitchpakdi said that the recent recession shock had given nations on the continent a strong reason to shift towards greater industrial capacities, improved infrastructure, expanded regional relations, and increased economic ties with developing countries internationally.

However, the Bank of Botswana governor Linah Mohohlo pointed out that a number of countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, had been able to implement strong counter cyclical policies, which had helped them to weather the downturn.

"Although recovery from the recession was losing momentum, especially in Europe, sub-Saharan economies were proving more resilient than expected," she said.

It was predicted that the region's growth would accelerate to 5% in 2010.

Nevertheless, the experts agreed that African countries should take steps to be less dependent on outside influences.

National delegations contributing comments said that Africa was often "held hostage" by economic actions and decisions taken elsewhere in the world.

They concluded by saying that African governments needed to manage their natural resources better so that income from commodities was effectively employed to broaden the capacities of the continent's economies and added that regional integration in Africa could make a significant contribution to economic growth.