On 25 April 2011, a Presidential election was held in the Republic of Chad. Presidential candidates from the major opposition parties decided to boycott the election due to allegations of fraud and misconduct surrounding the contested parliamentary elections held in February 2011. As was widely predicted, the incumbent President Idriss Déby was re-elected to serve his fourth term in office.

Chad has had a turbulent political past and it was hoped that this election would lead Chad further along the road of democratisation. However, with the boycott and controversy surrounding the Presidential election, it appears that the election has instead thrown the country further into political turmoil. This paper discusses the background to the election, the electoral procedures, the criticised outcome and the implications for Chad and the wider West African region.

Chad's political background

The Republic of Chad is a landlocked state with a population of 10.7 million.⁽²⁾ The former French colony became independent in 1960, with François Tombalbaye appointed as the first President. Tombalbaye introduced a regime of one-party rule and under his reign the first round of Chad's civil war began. Tombalbaye introduced policies benefitting the groups from the south of the country and was accused of introducing anti-Muslim policies into the country, resulting in a civil war along religious and regional lines . Tombalbaye was killed by rebel soldiers in 1975. A protracted period of conflict and failed agreements between rebel and Government forces followed, with several interim heads ruling the country.

Election Type
Presidential

Election Date
25 April 2011

Last election
May 2006

Date of last election
Idriss Déby 88.6%
Albert Padacké 6.03%

Goukouni Oueddei became President of the Transitional Government of National Unity in 1979 as part of an attempt to unify rebels and Government forces. However, Oueddei's reign was limited due to personal rivalries with his Minister of Defence, Hissène Habré. Due to this rivalry, Oueddei called in Libyan forces to protect him as Habré had the loyalty of the Government forces. Oueddei's rule was ended by a coup d'état lead by Habré in 1982. During this time, Libya made several attempts to annex the northernmost part of Chad, a long-contested area. In 1986 the rebels changed their allegiance and Libyan forces were expelled from Chad. Habré's reign was known for being brutally violent and he was eventually overthrown by a coup d'état led by Idriss Déby in 1990.

Déby a key player in the political landscape

For the next 21 years, Déby and his Patriotic Salvation Movement (MPS) dominated Chad's political stage, first as part of the interim Government and then as the officially elected President in 1996. He was re-elected to serve a second term in 2001. Up until 2005, a President was limited to two terms in office. However, a referendum held in 2005 saw the two term limit on the Presidency lifted, allowing Déby to stand for a third term. Despite the referendum, the 2006 elections were boycotted by the opposition as a response to Déby's decision to run and the legitimacy of the election was brought into question. A series of rebellions took place in the capital N'Djamena between 2006 and 2008.This coincided with a number of failed coup d'états, aimed at ending Déby's rule. Wide-spread corruption has marked Déby's rule along with allegations of nepotism following the appointment of his son as a presidential advisor.

Agreement leading to 2011 Presidential and Parliamentary elections

In 2007, under the supervision of the European Union (EU), members of the ruling MPS party and the opposition parties reached an agreement regarding the organisation of the 2011 Parliamentary and Presidential elections. This agreement included the creation of a new electoral commission with equal representation of the ruling party and the opposition. The agreement also included details pertaining to the electoral procedure including the use of single ballot papers, members of the security forces voting a day before the rest of the country and that nomads vote on the actual voting day. These amendments would ensure that security forces would be deployed on election day to ensure peaceful elections and it would also limit chances of vote rigging as the majority of the voting would take place on a single day.

Despite the pre-election agreements, the Parliamentary elections, which took place on 13 February 2011, came under heavy criticism from members of the opposition. More than 100 parties registered candidates for the Parliamentary election and many of the smaller parties grouped together to provide stronger opposition against the ruling party. However, the MPS won an absolute majority, amidst claims that they had monopolised the state media, interfered with the election process and that Déby had used state allocated means and assets for electioneering. All of the aforementioned are considered 'unfair conditions' under the terms of the electoral process.⁽³⁾⁽⁴⁾

As a result of the perceived misconduct during the parliamentary elections, the leaders of three major opposition groups boycotted the presidential election. They made a range of demands for electoral reform, including the issuing of new voter cards before the Presidential election took place. Their conditions were not met, resulting in an opposition boycott of the Presidential election. Along with their withdrawal, fifteen members of the Electoral Commission resigned, throwing into question the credibility of the elections and the newly formed National Electoral Commission (CENI). The Electoral Commission postponed the Presidential election from 3 April in an attempt to resolve the problems with the opposition parties prior to the election. Déby assured voters that the election would be credible, claiming that the other three candidates had withdrawn because 'they thought they would be beaten'.⁽⁵⁾

Only three candidates remain and key opposition figures boycott election

The President of Chad is elected by popular vote to serve a term of five years. If the candidate does not receive an absolute majority the election goes on to a second round run-off. Although six candidates were originally registered to stand in the poll, the main opposition candidates, Saleh Kebzabo, Wadal Abdelkader Kamougue, and Ngarlejy Yorongar boycotted the poll. This left Déby to face two other candidates - Albert Pahimi Padacké and Nadji Madou. Albert Pahimi Padacké, the current Minister for Post, Information Technologies and Communications and a former Agricultural minister under Déby, was left as his biggest rival in the election. Padacké ran against Déby in the 2006 Presidential election but came third with only 7.8% of votes.⁽⁶⁾ Nadji Madou is a wealthy lawyer from the south, but is a newcomer to the political scene and is consequently not seen as a major rival.

Election day off to a slow start due to delay in voting materials

On election day, voting got off to a slow start in the capital with many voting stations opening late due to a lack of voting materials and the late arrival of staff. A total of 4.9 million people were registered to vote and 64% of them cast their votes.⁽⁷⁾ Despite the calls from the opposition to boycott the elections, more people voted than in the 2006 Presidential elections.⁽⁸⁾ The results were announced on 9 May with Déby declared the winner having received 88.6% of the votes. Padacké and Madou received 6% and 5% respectively.⁽⁹⁾ A civil society group, Civil Movement for the Preservation of Liberties called for the results to be annulled.⁽¹⁰⁾

Aftermath and an increasingly fragmented political sphere

Whilst the elections were aimed at moving Chad closer to the establishment of strong democratic institutions, there are fears that the elections may have left the country more fragmented than before. The rift between members of the opposition, the rebel groups and the Government has further widened following the boycott and what the opposition sees as non-compliance with its demands for reform. With the opposition having boycotted the election, Déby has further extended his power. If Chad's movement towards a strong democratic state is viewed as having come to a standstill, rebel groups may also feel compelled to continue to force a change in regime. Further violence could in return have serious repercussions for Chad's fragile economy as itrelies heavily on foreign investment in their exports, including oil. Further violence would be likely to destabilise the region and may force investors to go elsewhere.

Better dialogue and negotiations are needed between the oppositional rebel forces and the Government to ensure a better agreement can be reached in the future. However, for many members of the opposition, the re-election of Déby signals a continuation of corruption, uneven spending of oil incomes and on-going poverty which has characterised Déby's long reign. In addition, tension between ethnic groups has long been a part of the political landscape in Chad. Historically, ethnic allegiances have played an important role in the election of Presidents and Déby has filled his armed forces with members of his Zaghawa clan, thus ensuring the military's loyalty to him.

Concluding remarks

The political climate in the country continues to be highly charged / volatile, with the country divided along ethnic and regional lines. The election, the associated procedure and outcome, are indicative of Chad's fragile democracy. The opposition is weak and underdeveloped and the newly-formed Electoral Commission failed to impress in the Parliamentary election and again appears to have failed to hold a non-contentious Presidential election. The legitimacy and credibility of the elections, and thereby the Electoral Commission, have subsequently been brought into question. Although the election saw no violence, tensions are still running high. Although the voter turnout suggests that, on the whole, the pleas from the oppositions for voters to boycott the elections failed, the official voter turnout has been disputed by leaders of the opposition and the AU.⁽¹¹⁾

Chad's stability is central not only to its own citizens but also to the thousands of refugees from Sudan and Central African Republic living in Chad. Despite widespread regime change sweeping across Africa, Déby seems to have secured a further term as President. How much longer the citizens of Chad will tolerate his reign however, is yet to be seen.

NOTES:

(1) Contact Madie Schutte through Consultancy Africa Intelligence's Election Reflection Unit ( election.reflection@consultancyafrica.com This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it ).
(2) CIA, 'The World Factbook: Africa, Chad', The World Factbook, https://www.cia.gov.
(3) 'Chadian President runs for a fourth term', News Ahead, 24 April 2011, http://www.newsahead.com.
(4) 'Opposition boycott clouds chad vote', Aljazeera, 25 April 2011, http://english.aljazeera.net.
(5) Ibid.
(6) 'Elections in Chad', African Elections Database, 22 May 2011, http://africanelections.tripod.com.
(7) Ibid.
(8) Ibid.
(9) Ibid.
(10) 'Chad civil group wants poll results annulled', West Africa Democracy Radio, 29 April 2011, http://www.wadr.org.
(11) Madjiasra Nako, 'Chad's Deby wins re-election in boycotted poll', 9 May 2011, http://www.reuters.com.

Written by Madie Schutte ⁽¹⁾