South Africa

JOHANNESBURG – The South African Reserve Bank leaves its repo rate unchanged at 5,5% but raises its inflation forecast and strikes a bullish tone on growth. The Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC’s) hawkish tone suggests rates will start increasing before the end of the year, as many analysts anticipate. However, Governor Gill Marcus declines to comment on the timing of any rate increase. Marcus says inflation will probably average 4,7% this year and 5,7% in 2012, higher than previous forecasts of 4,6% and 5,3% respectively. "The MPC is of the view that the risks to the inflation outlook are on the upside. However, these risks and underlying pressures are mainly of a cost-push nature," she says. The central bank cut the repo rate by 650 basis points between December 2008 and December 2010, taking borrowing costs to their lowest in more than three decades. The March 24 verdict is the second time it has left rates on hold. All 21 economists polled by Reuters during the previous week predicted the move. On growth, the central bank says that prospects appear to have improved moderately and, accordingly, raised its GDP growth forecast for this year to 3,7% and 3,9% for next year. "The domestic growth prognosis has improved and the recovery is expected to be sustained, although not at rates sufficient to make appreciable inroads into the unemployment situation in South Africa," she adds. Consumption expenditure growth will remain relatively robust but is unlikely to accelerate to excessive levels in the short term, she adds.

JOHANNESBURG – Democracy needs "to produce good results" and not a strong opposition to be successful, President Jacob Zuma says. "There are some [who] say that to have a good democracy we need a strong opposition. Democracy must produce results," Zuma says at a Progressive Business Forum dinner, at the Gallagher Convention Centre, in Midrand. Urging the business community to support the ANC ahead of the upcoming local government elections, he said: "Supporting the African National Congress (ANC) is an investment that is done wisely." Zuma says the ANC's policies have led to a reduction in poverty. He says that, while only 36% of households had access to electricity in 1994, 84% of households have access to electricity in 2011. "We are fully aware that these achievements can be undermined by inequalities that are the legacy of apartheid." Zuma says the ANC is unique in that it has garnered community support for its candidates and they have not been forced on communities. In an apparent reference to the Democratic Alliance he says: "Why would you spend money on something that cannot grow." On the Congress of the People, he says those who wish to leave the organisation should do so alone as organisations formed by those who have left the party had not succeeded.

CAPE TOWN – President Jacob Zuma says government will continue to make every effort to ensure South Africans are able to enjoy their human rights as enshrined in the Constitution. “We must work together to achieve a society where millions more have decent employment opportunities . . . to achieve a society where all children, urban and rural, go to decent schools with the right equipment and facilities as well as qualified, motivated teachers. We want a South Africa where hospitals and clinics have adequate medicines, doctors, nurses and other professionals. We must work together towards a country where there is access to water, sanitation, electricity, good roads and recreational facilities,” said Zuma during Human Rights Day celebrations at Athlone stadium. The President outlined his vision for the country going into the future. “It should be a country where the crime rate is at its lowest or nonexistent, and where there are thriving rural area economies with infrastructure and basic services.” He underscored the importance of the equality of the rights of women, children and workers, and called on South Africans to “collectively unite in condemnation, whenever and wherever a woman is raped or beaten, when a child is abused or neglected, and when a worker is mistreated and exploited”. Zuma said that about 15-million people, mainly orphans and vulnerable children, elderly persons, military veterans and those with disabilities were receiving social grants. “Let us continue to promote nonracialism and unity in diversity as taught by struggle icons of our country,” he added.

Africa & the world

PARIS – The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) says it will enforce a Libya no-fly zone but stopped short of taking full command of the United Nations-backed military operations to protect civilians from forces loyal to Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi. Western have jets pounded targets in southern Libya but failed to prevent government tanks re-entering the north-western city of Misurata, whose main hospital was besieged by armour and government snipers. Western commanders hope that rebel forces in eastern Libya will overthrow Gaddafi but the return of tanks to Misurata under cover of darkness highlights the difficulties they face in trying to force the Libyan leader to cease fire. Rebels, who have set up an alternative government in their north-eastern stronghold in Benghazi, say they need more ammunition and anti-tank weapons if they are to end Gaddafi's 41-year rule. "We need arms and ammunition. This is our only problem," rebel military spokesman Colonel Ahmed Bani says. France, Britain and the US have led enforcement of the Libya no-fly zone imposed by the UN Security Council, which authorised "all necessary measures" to protect Libyan civilians against Gaddafi's forces. British Tornado aircraft have launched missiles at Libyan military vehicles, which were threatening civilians in the eastern frontline town of Ajdabiyah, 150 km south-west of Benghazi, the Ministry of Defence says. Differences over the scope the UN resolution given for military action against Gaddafi's army led to days of heated arguments within Nato about its role in the operation.

ABIDJAN – The Côte d’Ivoire’s neighbours urge the United Nations (UN) to toughen the mandate of its 12 000 peacekeepers there and apply harsh sanctions on the inner circle of incumbent leader Laurent Gbagbo. The move adds to pressure on the world body to do more to end a violent postelection stand-off in the top cocoa producer that has already claimed hundreds of lives and is veering toward all-out civil war. France earlier urged a tougher UN role. Gbagbo claimed victory in a disputed November election despite UN-certified results showing that he lost to his rival Alassane Ouattara. Gbagbo says those results were rigged. Yet African States, the US and the European Union have all recognised Ouattara as winner and the Ecowas regional bloc has repeatedly said force may be needed to remove Gbagbo. "(Ecowas) requests the UN Security Council to strengthen the mandate of the UN operation in the Côte d’Ivoire, enabling the mission to use all necessary means to protect life and property and to facilitate the immediate transfer of power to Mr Alassane Ouattara," a communiqué issued after a summit says. It does not spell out what moves it expects but UN measures typically include assets freezes and travel bans. Gbagbo and his senior officials are subject to a range of EU and US sanctions aimed at cutting off his access to funds.

MONROVIA – Côte d’Ivoire’s descent into violence risks wiping out hard-won security gains in West Africa unless a postelection power struggle is resolved, Liberian President Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf (pictured) says. “We’re already at war. We hope there will not be an escalation of war,” she says. “There’s been a lot of investment for peace in this subregion – we’re beginning to see the results of the investment . . . . If nothing is done to resolve the crisis, all of these efforts will be undermined,” she warns. Liberia is still recovering from years of civil war between 1998 and 2003, and is struggling to cope with some 90 000 Ivorian refugees who have poured across the border since a dispute over a November Presidential vote turned violent. The United Nations (UN) refugee agency appealed for $46-million in aid in mid-January but, with the focus of world attention on the conflict in Libya and the earthquake and tsunami disaster in Japan, the agency said earlier this month barely $5-million had come in. “The UN has put out an appeal but the response has been very slow and inadequate,” Johnson-Sirleaf adds. Around 400 Ivorians have died and hundreds of thousands have fled their homes in a dispute over a November 28 Presidential vote which UN-certified results showed was won by Alassane Ouattara, a rival to incumbent leader Laurent Gbagbo.

TRIPOLI – An elaborate shadow boxing match is under way over whether the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) should take command of military operations in Libya, but keeping the Western alliance out of the limelight suits both the US and France. Washington, keen to extract itself from two other wars in the Muslim world, wants as low a profile as possible in the North African conflict, even though it has quietly taken the lion’s share of missile and air strikes so far, diplomats say. Paris believes that putting the US-led defence alliance in charge will alienate the Arab world, already alarmed by the first bombs falling, and burn bridges with Russia, China and developing nations that let the UN resolution pass. “The Arab League does not wish the operation to be entirely placed under Nato responsibility. It isn’t Nato which has taken the initiative up to now,” French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe says. “It’s a coalition of countries leading the operation, so political control . . . is exercised by this coalition, in which Arab, North American and European countries are participating,” he says, adding that Nato might play a role in planning and execution as the mission unfolds. French officials say that Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, which are providing politically vital Arab participation in the coalition against Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi (pictured), will not have joined a Nato-led operation.