The large renewable capacity indicated in the balanced and low-carbon scenarios of the second Integrated Resource Plan or IRP2010, might be somewhat “ambitious”, energy economist Jean-Pierre Favennec said on Thursday.

The balanced plan proposes that 3 800 MW of wind energy be introduced into South Africa's power generation system by 2019.

It further proposes that an additional 7 200 MW of renewable energies (wind, solar, landfill and biomass) be brought on stream between 2020 and 2030.

“While South Africa needs to diversify its energy source away from coal, these are very big capacities, which would require large sums of money and technical skills. Such challenges could prove significant in the implementation of such a plan.

“South Africa has uranium, wind and sun, so it should make use of these resources, but the targets may be a little ambitious in such a short time,” Favennec said at a French Energy breakfast in Johannesburg.

However, he emphasised that the plan was a step in the right direction, and that the implementation of any one of the three scenarios would require an investment of about R100-billion.

The IRP2010 balanced scenario indicates that South Africa would need 41 346 MW of new electricity capacity by 2030, assuming a growth trajectory of 4,5% over the next 20 years.

“It would probably be wisest to just start building new capacity, instead of discussing it too much and leaving it too late,” said Favennec.

The Department of Energy is holding public hearings on the draft IRP2010 throughout the country this week.

The IRP2010 is a 20-year electricity capacity plan, providing an indication of the country’s electricity demand, how this demand will be supplied and at what cost.

Favennec pointed out that the IRP2010 did not speak of the decentralisation of South Africa’s electricity system or of the regional cooperation to meet the country’s demand, which would provide more flexibility and reduce the costs related to the country’s 20-year electricity plan.

“With proper transmission and distribution, South Africa will be able to access complementary power sources from its neighbours such as Mozambique, Zambia and Namibia, at a much lower cost.”

He also noted, that while it would be difficult to fully privatise South Africa’s electricity sector, it definitely needed a degree of privatisation to successfully implement any of the IRP2010 scenarios.

Nevertheless, Favennec said that the implementation of any plan to increase and renew capacity would see an acceleration of South Africa’s economy.