Business organisation Business Leadership South Africa (BLSA) views the 2026 Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) as proof that government’s fiscal discipline is working.

The organisation has welcomed the National Treasury’s ensuring that South Africa’s government debt decreased despite the US-Israel conflict against Iran having been launched three days after the February Budget.

“That discipline is being rewarded: the rand has remained resilient, strengthening and becoming less volatile despite the sharp rise in global oil prices, and the ratings agencies are taking notice.

“S&P upgraded South Africa in November 2025, Fitch followed in June 2026, its first upgrade in almost 21 years, and Moody’s moved to a positive outlook. BLSA expects further upgrades after these figures, which would lower borrowing costs for government and business alike,” highlights BLSA CEO Busisiwe Mavuso.

However, BLSA says the core problem remains the slow pace of economic growth as Treasury cut its 2026 forecast to 1.2% and projects 2% growth by 2029.

The organisation is encouraged with Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana’s endorsement of government’s strategy for faster growth and healthier public finances.

“BLSA fully supports these goals and will continue to assist government wherever it can in achieving them.

“Faster economic growth is the best way to address South Africa’s severe unemployment crisis. This is a long-term process, which is why every effort to accelerate delivery matters, especially on structural reforms and infrastructure,” Mavuso says.

Industry body Business Unity South Africa (Busa) has also acknowledged the continued focus on prudent fiscal management and the responsible stewardship of public finances.

“The mini-Budget recognises the underlying fiscal strength and creates room for sustainable increases in expenditure over time. The proposed fiscal anchor, expected to be introduced through legislation in 2027, should strengthen accountability and help ensure that fiscal plans remain consistent and implementable,” Busa CEO Khulekani Mathe says.

Busa also welcomes the increased emphasis on infrastructure, highlighting that capital assets are the fastest-growing spending category.

Meanwhile, industry organisation Consulting Engineers South Africa (Cesa) CEO Chris Campbell has welcomed the measures to strengthen fiscal stability and improve infrastructure delivery but cautions that these interventions will have limited impact unless funding translates into properly planned, completed and functional projects.

“Debt stabilisation, the operationalisation of the Infrastructure Finance and Implementation Support Agency, the continued scaled of the Budget Facility for Infrastructure (BFI), progress on the Credit Guarantee Vehicle and the push to expand public-private partnerships in the municipal space are all steps in the right direction,” he says.

Campbell also notes the importance of capital spending being the fastest-growing component of the Budget, but he argues that more resources need to be directed towards rebuilding South Africa’s economic capacity and to ease pressure on households and firms that are struggling under tough conditions.

Financial services firms Standard Bank has also commended government’s continued commitment to infrastructure development with an infrastructure pipeline of about R217-billion through the Infrastructure Fund and more more than R100-billion in projects approved through the BFI.

“Infrastructure projects create opportunities far beyond construction. They can stimulate demand across logistics, professional services, manufacturing, technology and business services, creating avenues for small and medium-sized enterprise growth and job creation,” highlights Standard Bank business banking coverage head Umesh Madhav.

He adds that the key will be to translate investment commitments into practical opportunities that are accessible to businesses of all sizes.

FUEL RELIEF, GEOPOLITICS, PRIMARY SURPLUS
From a fuel perspective, AfriForum spokesperson Louis Boshoff says Godongwana’s MTBPS contains a number of sensible decisions, particularly the R10-billion in fuel-levy relief. But, the organisation says that relief must be accompanied by more fundamental reforms regarding how government uses tax revenue.

“The reduction in fuel levies is a step in the right direction, but effective policy and State management must now follow – measures that reward citizens and further unlock the potential of the private sector,” he explains.

Financial services company Nedbank Group Economic Unit has also noted that South Africa’s fiscal outlook remains vulnerable to external shocks, with an escalation of the Middle East conflict potentially keeping oil prices high, weakening the rand, fuelling inflation and interest rates and increasing debt-service costs.

“A reversal in gold and platinum prices would erode the revenue gains that have cushioned the framework,” Nedbank says.

The Group warns that if economic growth doesn't improve as expected, lower economic output will cause the country's debt ratio to rise, even if the government sticks to its spending plans.

However, North-West University Business School economist Professor Raymond Parsons argues that the MTBPS reaffirms South Africa’s commitment to stablilising debt ratios and protecting the primary budget surplus, which provides the predictability that bond markets and credit rating agencies require.

Yet, he cautions that stability alone is not enough.

“While the primary surplus represents a commendable milestone in fiscal constraints, it now serves more as a defensive shield against a tougher economic climate than as a springboard for much stronger inclusive growth,” he explains.