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Although the SACCI’s Business Confidence Index (BCI) dipped sharply in April 2026 due to the fuel price shock, it stabilized and recorded 125.4 in July 2026. Since July the BCI recovered to measure 135.1 in August 2026 - a better level than before the oil price shock.

After the SACCI BCI recovered strongly in August, it was a significant 10.9 index points higher in September 2026 than a year ago. The continuing high international price of precious metals remained in support of business sentiment. Slightly higher inflation, somewhat less volumes of merchandise exports, and higher energy prices had a small negative year-on-year effect on business sentiment in September 2026.

The increase in the SACCI BCI was particularly selective and due to exceptional increases in inward tourists and new vehicle sales. Increased volumes of merchandise exports and retail sales also made positive contributions. Notable negative short-term effects were caused by reduced volumes of merchandise imports, less real value of building plans passed, and higher energy prices.

With renewed uncertainty surrounding the crude oil price, the SACCI BCI lost 0.8 index points in September 2026 to measure 134.3. The BCI averaged 129.3 in the first nine months of 2026 compared to 119.0 in the first nine months of 2025 despite the disturbance caused by the sharp rise in the crude oil price in April 2026 and the destabilising effect it had on the world and local economy.

Recently the financial climate became more challenging while real economic activity was marginally positive. If compared to September 2025 the business climate remained rather mixed with the unstable fuel price, its effect on inflation and financial stability, and trends in global trade that remain main reasons for concern.

SACCI notes with concern the expected restrained activity in the world economy in 2026 and the rearrangement of international trade and the effect on the South African economy.  It is however encouraging to note some positive developments in public finance. If these tendencies are sustained in the upcoming medium-term budget (MTBPS 2026) it could further enhance business confidence and encourage fixed investment given expected higher economic growth to ensue. 

Issued by SACCI