Two-thirds of emerging market and developing economies—and 90 percent of low-income countries—depend on commodity exports, leaving their public finances exposed to the boom-bust swings in global commodity prices.

When commodity prices surge, spending typically rises in step; when they collapse, public services and investments are often cut, amplifying economic volatility and deepening the slump.

Drawing on the most comprehensive analysis to date of a large sample of commodity-exporting developing economies, this book reveals just how deeply these price swings shape government finances, and why some nations weather the cycle better than others.

The book offers a practical roadmap for building fiscal resilience—through stronger fiscal frameworks and institutions, prudent saving during good times, and longer-term fiscal planning—while confronting the added uncertainty of the global energy transition.

The rich menu of policy options outlined can help make public finances more resilient to shocks, reduce economic instability, and support more durable growth for commodity-dependent economies.

Report by the World Bank