With Nigeria’s presidential election set for 16 January 2027, president Bola Tinubu used the country’s 66th Independence Day on 1 October to make the case for his record.
Tinubu pointed to improvements in economic growth, inflation, foreign reserves and investment. These issues are likely to remain central to the campaign, particularly after reforms that have put pressure on prices and household finances.
Africa Check examined several of his claims against official statistics, government records and other credible evidence.
Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, measures the value of goods and services produced in an economy. Growth is usually compared with the same period a year earlier, after adjusting for inflation.
Nigeria’s economy grew 3.89% in the first quarter of 2026 and 4.43% in the second, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Only the second-quarter figure was above 4%. Figures for the third and fourth quarters were not yet available when Tinubu spoke.
But looking at the first half of the year as a whole, NBS data shows real GDP of about N104.73-trillion between January and June 2026, compared with N100.55-trillion over the same period in 2025. This is an increase of about 4.16%.
Prof Benedict Akanegbu, professor of economics at the Nile University of Nigeria in Abuja, told Africa Check that comparing the same period in successive years was acceptable.
“If all things are equal in both periods, then we can compare both periods’ growth,” he said.
The president’s claim is correct based on the data for the first six months of 2026.
Both parts of Nigeria’s economy grew in the second quarter of 2026, the latest period for which data was available. The oil sector grew 7.31% year on year, while the non-oil sector grew 4.31%.
Because the non-oil economy accounts for about 96% of GDP, it was responsible for most of the overall increase.
The oil sector was, however, volatile, contrary to Tinubu’s claim of “stable growth.”
Oil sector growth declined from 6.79% in Q4 2025 to 2.57% in Q1 of 2026, before rising to 7.31% in the second quarter. Non-oil growth was more steady over the same period, at 3.99%, 3.94% and 4.31%.
Although both sectors contributed to growth, the oil sector was more volatile than Tinubu claimed, including due to shifts in global oil markets and geopolitical tensions.
The claim is largely correct.
Nigeria has for years pursued policies to reduce its dependence on crude oil exports and earn more foreign exchange from non-oil products.
The Nigerian Export Promotion Council reported $6.1-billion in non-oil exports in 2025, up from $5.46-billion in 2024. It described this as the highest formally documented non-oil export value in Nigeria's history.
Crude oil theft, vandalism and other disruptions have plagued Nigeria for years, causing losses along its production and pipeline network.
Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) shows reported crude losses fell from 37.6-million barrels in 2021 (102,900 barrels a day) to 20.9-million in 2022, 4.3-million in 2023 and 4.1-million (11,300 barrels a day) in 2024.
Between January and July 2025, the regulator reported average losses of about 9,600 barrels a day, its lowest level since 2009. The seven-month total is 94.57% lower than the full year 2021 figure. The NUPRC published this data in September 2025. We did not find newer data and have contacted the regulator. But the available official evidence does support Tinubu’s claim that oil theft has fallen.
Source: NUPRC
Inflation measures how quickly prices are rising. A low and stable rate helps support a healthy economy.
To measure inflation, the NBS tracks changes in the prices of a basket of goods and services that Nigerians typically buy. This is known as the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Nigeria’s reported headline inflation rate fell from a peak of 34.80% in December 2024 to 15.39% in August 2026.
But the country rebased its CPI in 2025, updating the basket to reflect changing spending patterns and moving the base year from 2009 to 2024.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said the rebasing “mechanically lowered” measured inflation and made comparisons with earlier figures more difficult.
“As a result, changes in inflation levels around the rebasing period should be interpreted with caution,” the IMF said in a June 2026 analysis.
Akanegbu said the seemingly lower inflation rate did not necessarily match Nigerians’ everyday experience of high prices, particularly for food and fuel.
Foreign exchange reserves are foreign-currency assets held by a country’s central bank. They help pay for imports and foreign obligations and can play a key role in supporting the currency and maintaining economic stability.
Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) data shows gross external reserves rose from $35.1-billion in May 2023 when Tinubu took office to about $`54.9-billion on 29 September 2026. This is an increase of about $19.8-billion, or about 56%
The reserves remain below earlier highs, including about $64.85-billion in 2008. But they have increased under Tinubu.
Foreign direct investment, or FDI, generally refers to cross-border investment that gives a foreign investor a lasting stake in a business or project. It differs from portfolio investment, such as shares and bonds, where the investor does not seek to help manage the business.
NBS figures show FDI rising from about $377-million in 2023 to $675-million in 2024 and $923-million in 2025.
The latest available data for 2026 covers only the first quarter, when Nigeria received about $135.08-million. This was slightly higher than the $126-million recorded in the first quarter of 2025.
Tinubu’s claim is mostly correct based on the available data.
In June 2025, the National Pension Commission (PenCom) announced an increase in pension payments under the Contributory Pension Scheme. Monthly payments rose from N8.3-billion to N11.9-billion, benefiting more than 233,000 retirees.
PenCom also reported progress in clearing accrued pension payments – benefits workers earned before the scheme began in 2004 – owed to people leaving public service.
There have been reforms to widen coverage. In 2025, PenCom introduced a plan aimed at self-employed and informal-sector workers.
In 2025, Tinubu also ordered the speedy implementation of free healthcare for low-income retirees, and in 2024 called for pension increases and a minimum guaranteed amount for vulnerable pensioners. We could not immediately establish whether these reforms have been implemented. Africa Check has contacted PenCom for clarification.
PenCom said a backlog in accrued pension rights, which had previously stretched to 21 months, had been cleared up to retirees who left service in March 2025.
In September 2026, PenCom spokesperson Ibrahim Buwai also said that the federal government was 41 months ahead in funding accrued pension rights for retiring public servants.
For salaries, however, we found that there have been delays.
Some federal workers received their February 2026 salaries late, with the Office of the Accountant-General blaming shortfalls in personnel allocations. University of Maiduguri staff also reported delays in June 2026 because federal funds had not been released.
There were also outstanding wage-award payments for March and April 2026, prompting workers to threaten protests.
These cases show salaries were not consistently paid “on time”, even if pension payments have improved.
