Egypt's annual inflation rate is expected to have eased to 14.5% in May, pulled lower by favourable base effects, a Reuters poll showed on Monday, though analysts warn the respite will be short-lived as electricity price hikes and other pressures push prices higher in coming months.
The median forecast of 15 analysts polled by Reuters between June 3-8 was for annual urban consumer inflation to have slipped to 14.5% in May from 14.9% in April. Forecasts ranged from a low of 13.3% to a high of 16.0%.
The rate had eased in April from 15.2% the month before, which marked a 10-month high, despite inflationary pressure from the Iran conflict.
The government statistics agency CAPMAS is due to release the May data on Wednesday, June 10.
Goldman Sachs, which forecast headline CPI at 14.5%, said the expected decline was mainly due to favourable base effects, while projecting a sequential acceleration in monthly prices from 1.1% to 1.5%.
The bank said it expected a rise in food inflation as the drag from falling poultry and egg prices moderates, and an increase in sequential housing inflation as the impact of electricity price hikes announced in April begins to feed through.
Emirates NBD, which forecast 14.4%, said: "Favourable base effects will see another modest slowdown in headline annual inflation in May, but pressures are mounting."
Both Goldman Sachs and Emirates NBD cautioned that the dip would be temporary, with inflation expected to reaccelerate sharply in the months ahead. Goldman said it continued to forecast inflation peaking at around 17.5% in August, while Emirates NBD put the peak at around 17.0% that month.
Five of the analysts in the poll also provided forecasts for core inflation, with a median of 13.5% in May, compared with 13.8% in April. Core inflation forecasts ranged from 13.4% to 13.7%.
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