Most of the world's future demands for electricity will come from
developing countries, believes Eskom's MD of the Resources and
Strategy Division Dr Steve Lennon.
Lennon was addressing a meeting of the Fossil Fuel Foundation of Africa at a sundowner lecture at the University of the Witwatersrand this week.
Globally, the electricity demand is expected to increase by 60% between 2002 and 2030. Some two-thirds of this demand will be from developing countries.
While renewable energy made up 2% of the pie three years ago, by 2030 it will grow to 6%. The total share of nuclear power will decline, he said.
Of the renewable options currently being used, wind and biomass will increase in popularity while hydroelectricity will move from a 13% to a 16% share in this segment.
The Congo River at Inga currently has 2 000 MW of installed capacity, but could push this to 40 000 MW; the total installed capacity in South Africa. However, there is no infrastructure to link this power into on the continent and, at the moment, no market to sell to.
This would mean a global network of power lines in which transmission lines are linked to current networks.
Technology being investigated for the future includes gas, which Lennon would like to see playing a larger role in power provision. Eskom is at an advanced stage of a feasibility study in this area.
Globally, the coal industry is looking at a solution for environmental issues and Eskom is also closely watching developments in a Finnish pressurised-water reactor, tipped to push out 1 500 MW.
Longer term, solar has not been very successful, Lennon said, but the company is currently involved in feasibility studies in Upington.
The study involved solar photovoltaics in a thermal plant that melts salt and turns the steam into power.
And renewable power may well be the route to take, he indicated, as the situation with fossil fuels into the next 100 years is not clear. Fossil fuels in total will made up some 90% of the demand and by 2010 natural gas will overtake coal.
On the downside, the need for fossil fuels will see emissions grow by 62% in the same period and developing countries' emissions will overtake those of OECD countries in the 2020s.
By 2030, developing countries will push out some 18 000-million tons of carbon dioxide.
The question, said Lennon, is how to get developing countries onto the power board with the impact that this will have on the environment.
Dwindling resources versus growing demand
Challenges that lie ahead include the rising prices of commodities such as coal and oil, and climate change commitments as well as dwindling resources.
Lennon said that nations generally depend on a few countries for their primary energy needs, and that one readily available at the moment is coal.
While the top five developing countries - Brazil, China, India, Mexico, and South Africa - can leapfrog technological challenges there will still be a drain on resources.
Lennon urged engineers to think 50 and 100 years into the future, especially when looking at Africa's need for power. Electricity underpins growth in developing economies and nowhere is this need more apparent than in Africa.
Its share of global electricity consumption is only 2%, despite having 12% of the world's population. Conversely, North America uses 30% and Western Europe 19%.
And this is not due to an ability to use electricity more efficiently, but rather to a lack of power.
Some 66% of Africa is rural, with no access to electricity infrastructure. In 2002, Africa had 526-million without power but by 2030 it will have gone backwards with 584-million people having no access to electricity.
China, with 221-million without electricity in 2002, will close this gap to 98-million by 2030.
Worldwide, by 2030 there could be as many as 1,4-billion people without power whereas there are currently 1,6-billion people without power.
The local picture
Locally, demand for power is expected to grow at just under the expected gross domestic product rate, while long-term forecasts put electricity demand on a growth path of between 2% and 4%. In 2003, there was an installed capacity of 40 000 MW.
Excess capacity built up over the last 15 years is close to being exhausted and now there is a drive to built new capacity.
The first unit at the coal-fired Camden Power Station in Mpumalanga was commissioned last weekend and the station will push out between 3 600 MW and 3 800 MW of peak capacity once running at full power.
Yet more peaking capacity is required.
Eskom is looking at having 1 000 MW of open-cycle gas-turbine power on line by 2007, with the Department of Minerals and Energy's independent power producer plant on line in 2008/9.
In 2011 a pumped-storage project will come online. Two such stations are at advanced design stage while one is in the early stages on construction.
In about 2020, many plants will have to be decommissioned and replaced.
Due to the long lead cycle, investment decisions must be made around 2012 for these eventualities.
But, looking longer term, commodities prices will go up and Eskom's R85-billion infrastructure spend over the next five years means that prices will go up.
Lennon points to oil at $100 a barrel and says that futures have already pegged it at $80 a barrel.
Lennon was addressing a meeting of the Fossil Fuel Foundation of Africa at a sundowner lecture at the University of the Witwatersrand this week.
Globally, the electricity demand is expected to increase by 60% between 2002 and 2030. Some two-thirds of this demand will be from developing countries.
While renewable energy made up 2% of the pie three years ago, by 2030 it will grow to 6%. The total share of nuclear power will decline, he said.
Of the renewable options currently being used, wind and biomass will increase in popularity while hydroelectricity will move from a 13% to a 16% share in this segment.
The Congo River at Inga currently has 2 000 MW of installed capacity, but could push this to 40 000 MW; the total installed capacity in South Africa. However, there is no infrastructure to link this power into on the continent and, at the moment, no market to sell to.
This would mean a global network of power lines in which transmission lines are linked to current networks.
Technology being investigated for the future includes gas, which Lennon would like to see playing a larger role in power provision. Eskom is at an advanced stage of a feasibility study in this area.
Globally, the coal industry is looking at a solution for environmental issues and Eskom is also closely watching developments in a Finnish pressurised-water reactor, tipped to push out 1 500 MW.
Longer term, solar has not been very successful, Lennon said, but the company is currently involved in feasibility studies in Upington.
The study involved solar photovoltaics in a thermal plant that melts salt and turns the steam into power.
And renewable power may well be the route to take, he indicated, as the situation with fossil fuels into the next 100 years is not clear. Fossil fuels in total will made up some 90% of the demand and by 2010 natural gas will overtake coal.
On the downside, the need for fossil fuels will see emissions grow by 62% in the same period and developing countries' emissions will overtake those of OECD countries in the 2020s.
By 2030, developing countries will push out some 18 000-million tons of carbon dioxide.
The question, said Lennon, is how to get developing countries onto the power board with the impact that this will have on the environment.
Dwindling resources versus growing demand
Challenges that lie ahead include the rising prices of commodities such as coal and oil, and climate change commitments as well as dwindling resources.
Lennon said that nations generally depend on a few countries for their primary energy needs, and that one readily available at the moment is coal.
While the top five developing countries - Brazil, China, India, Mexico, and South Africa - can leapfrog technological challenges there will still be a drain on resources.
Lennon urged engineers to think 50 and 100 years into the future, especially when looking at Africa's need for power. Electricity underpins growth in developing economies and nowhere is this need more apparent than in Africa.
Its share of global electricity consumption is only 2%, despite having 12% of the world's population. Conversely, North America uses 30% and Western Europe 19%.
And this is not due to an ability to use electricity more efficiently, but rather to a lack of power.
Some 66% of Africa is rural, with no access to electricity infrastructure. In 2002, Africa had 526-million without power but by 2030 it will have gone backwards with 584-million people having no access to electricity.
China, with 221-million without electricity in 2002, will close this gap to 98-million by 2030.
Worldwide, by 2030 there could be as many as 1,4-billion people without power whereas there are currently 1,6-billion people without power.
The local picture
Locally, demand for power is expected to grow at just under the expected gross domestic product rate, while long-term forecasts put electricity demand on a growth path of between 2% and 4%. In 2003, there was an installed capacity of 40 000 MW.
Excess capacity built up over the last 15 years is close to being exhausted and now there is a drive to built new capacity.
The first unit at the coal-fired Camden Power Station in Mpumalanga was commissioned last weekend and the station will push out between 3 600 MW and 3 800 MW of peak capacity once running at full power.
Yet more peaking capacity is required.
Eskom is looking at having 1 000 MW of open-cycle gas-turbine power on line by 2007, with the Department of Minerals and Energy's independent power producer plant on line in 2008/9.
In 2011 a pumped-storage project will come online. Two such stations are at advanced design stage while one is in the early stages on construction.
In about 2020, many plants will have to be decommissioned and replaced.
Due to the long lead cycle, investment decisions must be made around 2012 for these eventualities.
But, looking longer term, commodities prices will go up and Eskom's R85-billion infrastructure spend over the next five years means that prices will go up.
Lennon points to oil at $100 a barrel and says that futures have already pegged it at $80 a barrel.
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