Exports from South Africa were less hampered by the strong rand than by the poor performance of the G7 economies, said Econometrix senior director Tony Twine on Tuesday, speaking at a Ford media briefing.
He noted that the rand's foreign exchange value was a matter of hot debate at the moment, as South African producers and exporters believed the strong rand was to blame for the real value of exports declining.
Twine said that this had lead to some South African producers calling for the deliberate weakening of the rand to "rescue exports" which they said had "become too expensive".
However, said Twine, money was currently flowing from the slow-growing G7 economies to developing countries, including South Africa, in search of better returns than the world's major economies could offer, so it was "no real surprise" that the G7 gross domestic product was softening, and the rand strengthening.
"If we deliberately weaken the rand, it could turn around and bite us in the leg very quickly if the existing position of traders and investors changed, and the G7 [countries] again become more attractive as investment destinations, or emerging markets less attractive."
Examples of a weak rand bearing its teeth include the fact that imports - ranging between a wide variety of consumer and industrial goods used in the South African economy - accounted for between 22% to 25% of total spending within the economy.
"If the rand was to weaken against other currencies across the board, or even just major currencies like the US dollar, euro and yen, most of that 22%-plus imports would be exposed to the change," noted Twine.
"The cost, insurance and freight prices at local ports would increase, as would most of the value added by onshore participants who use the imported goods as inputs to their business activities."
Outside of the trading goods and services, financing arrangements in foreign currencies would become more expensive in rand terms, added Twine, including major borrowings by government and parastatals denominated in foreign currency terms.
"Those trade and finance exposures are simply round one of the impacts of a weaker rand, and quickly transmit to the prices of wholly South African made goods and services.
"A third level of exposure exists in South African produced items which use either import or export parity pricing policies, an example of the first being steel and of the second being foodstuffs."
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