June 15, 2026.

For Creamer Media in Johannesburg, I’m Sabrina Jardim.

Making headlines:

Traders cut South Africa rate-hike bets after Iran peace deal

BLSA says structural reforms gain traction but criminal justice enforcement lags

And, Senegal's Sonko softens tone on debt restructuring as IMF talks due

Traders have scaled back bets on additional South African interest-rate hikes after a US-Iran peace deal sent oil prices tumbling, potentially reducing inflationary pressures.

Forward-rate agreements are now pricing in 15 basis points of tightening at the South African Reserve Bank’s July 23 policy meeting, down from 30 basis points a week ago. The contracts are pricing in a total of 32 basis points of rate hikes this year, compared with 70 basis points a week ago.

Policymakers last month raised borrowing costs by 25 basis points to 7%, delivering their first increase in three years as inflationary pressures intensified because of the Iran war. They also signalled that further tightening may be warranted if the conflict drags on.

Inflation in Africa’s biggest economy probably quickened to 4.7% in May from 4% a month earlier, according to the median estimate of 18 economists in a Bloomberg survey. The central bank targets inflation at 3%.

There are emerging signs that South Africa’s structural reforms are slowly improving the country’s investment potential.

In her weekly newsletter business organisation Business Leadership South Africa CEO Busi Mavuso highlights that the 0.5% GDP growth, Fitch ratings upgrade, and the Port of Durban’s recognition as the world most improved port by international financial organisation the World Bank all reflect successful structural reform efforts and point to a stabilising fiscal outlook following years of decline.

However, she also stresses that urgent criminal justice reform is critical to maintaining investor confidence, especially on the eve of the financial action task force reevaluation, which is expected to conclude in October 2027.

Mavuso says that these positive signals have been reflected in the relatively good performance of the rand and the country’s investment markets, with both bonds and equities remaining largely unchanged despite the global turmoil driven by conflict in the Middle East.

Senegal's ousted prime minister, Ousmane Sonko, softened his tone on debt restructuring in an interview broadcast today, saying he does not hold "rigid positions" on the issue, a departure from his previous staunch opposition to such a move.

While he was dismissed by President Bassirou Diomaye Faye, who dissolved the government last month, lawmakers then voted to make Sonko speaker of the National Assembly, giving him a powerful position to influence government policy.

In his new role, Sonko could have considerable ability to obstruct Faye's agenda, including potentially resisting reforms required for a new IMF programme. An IMF team is expected to resume talks this week over a new lending programme.

In the interview with French outlets, Sonko said policymakers must respond pragmatically to the country’s mounting debt crisis, the result of misreported debt under former President Macky Sall's government.

That’s a roundup of news making headlines today

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