https://www.polity.org.za
Deepening Democracy through Access to Information
Home / Opinion / Latest Opinions RSS ← Back
Close

Email this article

separate emails by commas, maximum limit of 4 addresses

Verification Image. Please refresh the page if you cannot see this image.

Sponsored by

Close

Article Enquiry

Chickens and the economy: fact-checking Ramaphosa's #SONA2021

Verification Image. Please refresh the page if you cannot see this image.
Close

Embed Video

Chickens and the economy: fact-checking Ramaphosa's #SONA2021

18th February 2021

By: Africa Check

SAVE THIS ARTICLE      EMAIL THIS ARTICLE

Font size: -+

  • Ramaphosa didn’t shy away from economic realities, correctly claiming the unemployment rate has reached a “staggering” 30.8% and that the economy shrunk by 6% over most of 2020.

  • The president was also correct that his employment stimulus programme has supported over 430,000 opportunities.

    Advertisement
  • He understated growth in the poultry industry and his claim about citrus exports can’t be proven. But Ramaphosa was on the money in saying Eskom is the country’s largest greenhouse gas emitter.

  • Africa Check is still fact-checking a number of other claims made by the president. Check back for updates.

    Advertisement

 

South African president Cyril Ramaphosa delivered his fifth state of the nation address (Sona) on 11 February 2021.

In a speech rich with comparisons between South Africa and fynbos, a type of natural vegetation, Ramaphosa spoke of the resilience of the country’s people.

“This is no ordinary year, and this is no ordinary state of the nation address,” he said. Indeed, to comply with Covid-19 restrictions, Ramaphosa’s address differed from previous years. Fewer people were present in parliament and many of the ceremonial aspects were scrapped.

As always, Africa Check listened out for key claims made by the president. Did he stay on the right side of the facts? Here’s what we found.

Claim: In the third quarter of 2020, the economy was 6% smaller than it was in the third quarter of 2019.

Verdict: Correct

The size of an economy is measured through its gross domestic product (GDP). This refers to the value of all goods and services produced in a certain period, usually a year.

To track economic growth over time, GDP should be measured in real terms. This removes the effect of inflation.

In the third quarter of 2020, South Africa’s real GDP was R3,155,290,000,000 (3.16-trillion). By the third quarter of 2020, this had dropped to R2,962,669,000,000, a decrease of 6.1%.

Claim: There were 1.7-million fewer people employed in the third quarter of 2020 than there were in the first quarter. Our unemployment rate stands at a staggering 30.8%.

Verdict: Correct

Statistics South Africa, the country’s data agency, tracks employment statistics in its quarterly labour force survey.

In the first quarter of 2020, when news of Covid-19 was just reaching South Africa, there were 16,383,000 employed people between the ages of 15 and 64. By the third quarter of 2020, that figure had dropped to 14,691,000. This is a difference of 1.69-million.

The unemployment rate for the third quarter of 2020 was 30.8%. The expanded unemployment rate, which includes discouraged work seekers, was 43.1%.

Claim: “Through the implementation of the poultry master plan the industry has invested R800-million to upgrade production. South Africa now produces an additional 1-million chickens every week.”

Verdict: Understated

South Africa’s department of trade, industry and competition met with the poultry industry in December 2020. They reviewed progress on a poultry “master plan”, signed into effect on 7 November 2019, which aimed to increase state support to local poultry farmers.

Government support included a 62% tariff on imported bone-in chicken and a 42% tariff on imported boneless chicken, both introduced in March 2020.

Poultry industry representatives reported to the department that they had produced 1-million additional chickens every week since the plan was signed into effect.

But the industry reported investing R1.1-billion into upgrading and improving production – not R800-million as the president stated.

Just over 21-million chickens slaughtered every week

Izaak Breitenbach, a general manager at the South African Poultry Association, told Africa Check that he had supplied Ramaphosa’s office with the statistic. The association obtained their statistics from an audit of chicken producers.

“The slaughter numbers that we had pre-Covid in March last year was 19.6-million birds per week,” he said. “We are now slaughtering just above 21-million birds per week. And that is the increase that president Ramaphosa is talking about.”

This translated to an increase of 1.4-million chickens slaughtered per week.

Breitenbach attributed the increase to the additional R1-billion invested by the poultry industry, which boosted the production capacity of the industry by 5%.

Claim: “By the end of January 2021, over 430,000 opportunities have already been supported through the [Presidential Employment Stimulus]. A further 180,000 opportunities are currently in the recruitment process.”

Verdict: Correct

The Presidential Employment Stimulus is a R100-billion project announced in April 2020. The project, which started in October, is intended to provide financial support, protecting existing jobs during the Covid-19 pandemic and as the economy recovers, creating new job opportunities over several years.

The latest figures from a progress report published on 9 February 2021 show that 433,167 opportunities have been supported by the programme. This was made up of “342,827 jobs” (newly created or existing) and “90,340 livelihoods”.

As Ramaphosa also noted, a further 186,879 opportunities are currently recruiting or accepting applications.

An example of the stimulus provided is an initiative by the department of social development intended to provide financial support to early childhood development programmes. According to the presidency, this programme will support 108,833 workers. It is not clear how many of these are new jobs.

Another example is the Subsistence Producer Relief Fund through the department of rural development, which supports livelihoods by providing financial support to self-employed farmers impacted by Covid-19.

Numbers misreported in media

The day before the president’s address, a number of South African news agencies – among them eNCA, Times Live and the Citizen – misreported the numbers released by the presidency.

News channel eNCA reported that “the presidency said 600,000 jobs have been created under the presidential employment stimulus plan announced in October”.

This is incorrect. The stimulus aims to create new jobs but it is also supporting existing jobs and livelihoods. And 186,879 opportunities are currently recruiting or accepting applications – they have not yet been filled.

Claim: Eskom is the “largest greenhouse gas emitter” in South Africa.

Verdict: Correct

Eskom is South Africa’s national power utility. Data from Statistics South Africa shows that it produces 90% of the electricity used in the country.

In 2020 the department of environment, forestry and fisheries published a report on greenhouse gas emissions in South Africa by sector. These gases include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and fluorinated gases. When released into the atmosphere they block heat from escaping the atmosphere, warming the planet.

The report measured carbon emissions in gigagrams. One gigagram is equal to 1-million kilograms. Carbon is released into the atmosphere through natural processes like volcanic eruptions and human activities like burning fossil fuels.

Data was collected from industry stakeholders such as Eskom, the oil and gas company Sasol and the department of mineral resources. Carbon emissions were then calculated using models obtained from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a body established by the United Nations to assess science related to climate change.

38.1% of emissions due to energy and heat generation

The report estimated that South Africa produced 555,663.2 gigagrams of greenhouse gas emissions in 2017, excluding emissions from forestry and other land uses (FOLU). The total greenhouse gas emissions were 513,140.0 gigagrams when including FOLU. (Note: Forestry is able to capture carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and transform it into energy in the form of biomass through photosynthesis.)

Of the figure excluding emissions from FOLU, 84.75% was from carbon dioxide, 9.28% from methane, 4.81% from nitrous oxide and 1.16% from fluorinated gasses.

According to the report, electricity and heat generation contributed 38.1% of greenhouse gas emissions. The second largest contributor was road transport which accounted for 12.15%. This was followed by manufacturing industries and construction at 5.54%.

The report said that electricity generation was the largest key greenhouse gas emitter in South Africa. It said this was because the country “mainly uses sub-bituminous coal which is abundantly available”.

Dr Andrew Marquad is a senior researcher at the University of Cape Town’s African Climate Development Initiative. He told Africa Check that while the report does not provide figures for specific companies, the vast majority of the emissions attributed to the electricity and heat production would be from Eskom.

“It is definitely true that Eskom is the largest greenhouse gas emitter in the country, by quite a long way. This is because of their large coal-fired power plants,” he said.

Africa Check asked the department of environment, forestry and fisheries to provide a breakdown for Eskom’s emissions. We will update this report when we get a response.

Claim: “In 2020, [South Africa] became the world’s second-largest exporter of citrus.”

Verdict: Unproven

Tyrone Seale, the president’s acting spokesperson, told Africa Check that the claim was based on data from the Citrus Growers Association of Southern Africa.

“There are a number of different sources of data,” Justin Chadwick, the association’s chief executive, told Africa Check. “Our information manager goes through all these sources to get an idea of the numbers.”

He said these data sources included the United States department of agriculture’s foreign service, the United Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organization, and the UN Comtrade database.

Latest data for 2019

In 2020, the association published a report on industry statistics. But it only includes data for the 2019 export season.

It shows that in 2018/19, South Africa exported 2.1-million tonnes of fresh citrus. The only other country to export more than that was Spain, at 2.7-million tonnes.

SONAreport

South Africa was also the second-largest exporter of fresh citrus during the 2017/18 season, exporting 1.9-million tonnes.

“We’ve solidified our position as number two,” Chadwick said.

However, as data for 2020 is not yet available, we have rated the claim unproven.

This report was written by Africa Check., a non-partisan fact-checking organisation. View the original piece on their website.

 

EMAIL THIS ARTICLE      SAVE THIS ARTICLE

To subscribe email subscriptions@creamermedia.co.za or click here
To advertise email advertising@creamermedia.co.za or click here

Comment Guidelines

About

Polity.org.za is a product of Creamer Media.
www.creamermedia.co.za

Other Creamer Media Products include:
Engineering News
Mining Weekly
Research Channel Africa

Read more

Subscriptions

We offer a variety of subscriptions to our Magazine, Website, PDF Reports and our photo library.

Subscriptions are available via the Creamer Media Store.

View store

Advertise

Advertising on Polity.org.za is an effective way to build and consolidate a company's profile among clients and prospective clients. Email advertising@creamermedia.co.za

View options
Free daily email newsletter Register Now