Ramaphosa didn’t shy away from economic realities, correctly claiming the unemployment rate has reached a “staggering” 30.8% and that the economy shrunk by 6% over most of 2020.
The president was also correct that his employment stimulus programme has supported over 430,000 opportunities.Advertisement
He understated growth in the poultry industry and his claim about citrus exports can’t be proven. But Ramaphosa was on the money in saying Eskom is the country’s largest greenhouse gas emitter.
Africa Check is still fact-checking a number of other claims made by the president. Check back for updates.Advertisement
“This is no ordinary year, and this is no ordinary state of the nation address,” he said. Indeed, to comply with Covid-19 restrictions, Ramaphosa’s address differed from previous years. Fewer people were present in parliament and many of the ceremonial aspects were scrapped.
As always, Africa Check listened out for key claims made by the president. Did he stay on the right side of the facts? Here’s what we found.
The size of an economy is measured through its gross domestic product (GDP). This refers to the value of all goods and services produced in a certain period, usually a year.
To track economic growth over time, GDP should be measured in real terms. This removes the effect of inflation.
Statistics South Africa, the country’s data agency, tracks employment statistics in its quarterly labour force survey.
In the first quarter of 2020, when news of Covid-19 was just reaching South Africa, there were 16,383,000 employed people between the ages of 15 and 64. By the third quarter of 2020, that figure had dropped to 14,691,000. This is a difference of 1.69-million.
South Africa’s department of trade, industry and competition met with the poultry industry in December 2020. They reviewed progress on a poultry “master plan”, signed into effect on 7 November 2019, which aimed to increase state support to local poultry farmers.
Government support included a 62% tariff on imported bone-in chicken and a 42% tariff on imported boneless chicken, both introduced in March 2020.
But the industry reported investing R1.1-billion into upgrading and improving production – not R800-million as the president stated.
Just over 21-million chickens slaughtered every week
Izaak Breitenbach, a general manager at the South African Poultry Association, told Africa Check that he had supplied Ramaphosa’s office with the statistic. The association obtained their statistics from an audit of chicken producers.
“The slaughter numbers that we had pre-Covid in March last year was 19.6-million birds per week,” he said. “We are now slaughtering just above 21-million birds per week. And that is the increase that president Ramaphosa is talking about.”
This translated to an increase of 1.4-million chickens slaughtered per week.
Breitenbach attributed the increase to the additional R1-billion invested by the poultry industry, which boosted the production capacity of the industry by 5%.
The Presidential Employment Stimulus is a R100-billion project announced in April 2020. The project, which started in October, is intended to provide financial support, protecting existing jobs during the Covid-19 pandemic and as the economy recovers, creating new job opportunities over several years.
The latest figures from a progress report published on 9 February 2021 show that 433,167 opportunities have been supported by the programme. This was made up of “342,827 jobs” (newly created or existing) and “90,340 livelihoods”.
As Ramaphosa also noted, a further 186,879 opportunities are currently recruiting or accepting applications.
An example of the stimulus provided is an initiative by the department of social development intended to provide financial support to early childhood development programmes. According to the presidency, this programme will support 108,833 workers. It is not clear how many of these are new jobs.
Another example is the Subsistence Producer Relief Fund through the department of rural development, which supports livelihoods by providing financial support to self-employed farmers impacted by Covid-19.
Numbers misreported in media
News channel eNCA reported that “the presidency said 600,000 jobs have been created under the presidential employment stimulus plan announced in October”.
This is incorrect. The stimulus aims to create new jobs but it is also supporting existing jobs and livelihoods. And 186,879 opportunities are currently recruiting or accepting applications – they have not yet been filled.
In 2020 the department of environment, forestry and fisheries published a report on greenhouse gas emissions in South Africa by sector. These gases include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and fluorinated gases. When released into the atmosphere they block heat from escaping the atmosphere, warming the planet.
The report measured carbon emissions in gigagrams. One gigagram is equal to 1-million kilograms. Carbon is released into the atmosphere through natural processes like volcanic eruptions and human activities like burning fossil fuels.
Data was collected from industry stakeholders such as Eskom, the oil and gas company Sasol and the department of mineral resources. Carbon emissions were then calculated using models obtained from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a body established by the United Nations to assess science related to climate change.
38.1% of emissions due to energy and heat generation
The report estimated that South Africa produced 555,663.2 gigagrams of greenhouse gas emissions in 2017, excluding emissions from forestry and other land uses (FOLU). The total greenhouse gas emissions were 513,140.0 gigagrams when including FOLU. (Note: Forestry is able to capture carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and transform it into energy in the form of biomass through photosynthesis.)
Of the figure excluding emissions from FOLU, 84.75% was from carbon dioxide, 9.28% from methane, 4.81% from nitrous oxide and 1.16% from fluorinated gasses.
According to the report, electricity and heat generation contributed 38.1% of greenhouse gas emissions. The second largest contributor was road transport which accounted for 12.15%. This was followed by manufacturing industries and construction at 5.54%.
The report said that electricity generation was the largest key greenhouse gas emitter in South Africa. It said this was because the country “mainly uses sub-bituminous coal which is abundantly available”.
Dr Andrew Marquad is a senior researcher at the University of Cape Town’s African Climate Development Initiative. He told Africa Check that while the report does not provide figures for specific companies, the vast majority of the emissions attributed to the electricity and heat production would be from Eskom.
“It is definitely true that Eskom is the largest greenhouse gas emitter in the country, by quite a long way. This is because of their large coal-fired power plants,” he said.
Africa Check asked the department of environment, forestry and fisheries to provide a breakdown for Eskom’s emissions. We will update this report when we get a response.
Tyrone Seale, the president’s acting spokesperson, told Africa Check that the claim was based on data from the Citrus Growers Association of Southern Africa.
“There are a number of different sources of data,” Justin Chadwick, the association’s chief executive, told Africa Check. “Our information manager goes through all these sources to get an idea of the numbers.”
Latest data for 2019
South Africa was also the second-largest exporter of fresh citrus during the 2017/18 season, exporting 1.9-million tonnes.
“We’ve solidified our position as number two,” Chadwick said.
However, as data for 2020 is not yet available, we have rated the claim unproven.