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Cape Town’s water crisis is no longer a distant possibility. It is an escalating future risk that will fall hardest on poor and indigent communities unless urgent planning, affordability protections and supply interventions are put in place now.

The Cape Town Water Outlook is the single most important report for assessing the status of the City’s water supply, demand and infrastructure. Its latest findings paint an extremely worrying picture for the next five years, as Cape Town’s capacity constraints become increasingly clear. Most concerning is the warning that water restrictions could become a recurring feature in the province until at least 2035. GOOD notes with extreme concern that this future risk will fall hardest on poor and indigent communities, as water becomes scarcer, more expensive and less reliable in an already drought-fragile city.

The response to the 2018 drought from the COCT (City of Cape Town) was to implement the NWP (New Water Plan) with a key goal to add 300 million litres of water from new sources. The Water Outlook is the means in which the process is made transparent to key stakeholders and the public with its final report reading concluding on the 2nd of July. 

Eerily, Cape Town had the driest July since 1958, and our dam levels currently sit at a 13% decrease from last year’s readings. A positive update from the Water Outlook would have lightened this mood however the reality is a bleak. 

The City has hedged its bets on desalination plants. Where water can be treated and take pressure off infrastructure and increase supply. The two expansion plants set to be developed in Paarden Island which were critical to the 2019 NWP for water supply in the province are now delayed until further notice as an agreement with Transnet has not been reached due to port expansion plans. In addition, mass cable theft has ravaged Atlantis’s plant resulting in delays to their expanded capacity. This means that half of the crucial desalination capacity set out in the NWP is at risk of a shortfall. This cannot be compensated due to an increase in demand. 

This growth rate is not minimal by any means. The report confirms that it is three times the necessary growth rate to not experience a serious shortfall in the next ten years. The city is expected to reach its raw water allocation from the Western Cape Water supply in under two years. The report also acknowledges that this will result in an increase in water costs. The most vulnerable communities already struggling with rate and tax increases surrounding utilities will have their already tight wallets stretched even further as a result. This is only made more concerning by the planned supply interruptions from infrastructure breakdowns and urgent maintenance. 

Voëlvlei dam cannot fully be utilised until its pipe is repaired. The RSE tunnel is set to be repaired intermittently for a minimum of three years, and once certain sections are turned off 40-60 percent of supply will be unavailable meaning an extreme supply shortage. In addition, key infrastructure will be unavailable throughout the years as repairs are done. While many of these repairs are necessary, they can only occur if growth demand is sustainable and climate is predictable. 

Unfortunately for the province both aforementioned conditions will not be achievable. The report concedes that the 2025/26 demand increased by 5% rather than the desired 1.5% which is completely unsustainable. The climate situation is even worse. The reports prediction assumes a 2% risk chance of a high climate chance one year before a super El Nino is set to hit the region. This is without a doubt going to cause either an extreme flooding or drought event in the region with the possibility of both. Any assumption that next year’s weather is going to be consistent in any form is scientifically incorrect. We cannot rely on extreme weather events such as May’s flood to fill dams when it was a 1:200 event. 

Considering all of this from the report we can come to two ultimate conclusions. There will be less water in the province going forward and it will be more expensive. While this report attempts to inspire hope with commitments to hundreds of thousands of new meters, a dedicated plumbing team for repairs and environmental agreements for catchment cleanups they ultimately lack substance. Periods given are broad and encompass ten years without a clear time frame or step by step plan. Environmental catchments have no departmental funding commitments.

No details are given with how plumbing teams will be recruited nor their definitive plan. Exciting projects like desalination plants have been delayed and the Berg Rivier- Voëlvlei Augmentation scheme which could be providing 40 million litres a day has been revised to 2030 (seven years after the 2019 plan’s date) while actively costing the city money. One cannot be excited when commitments lack substance.  

GOOD calls on the province to provide the following: a revised plan where short-term solutions are acknowledged so that a man-made disaster does not occur. Data centres and other potential major water consuming developments should be placed on an immediate hold. Transparency into the planning and negotiations between the city and Transnet as well as the Department of Water and Sanitation. Immediate communication on prospective water restrictions and cost increases.   

Concluding with a revised environmental assessment considering next year’s extreme weather event. Only once these conditions are met can this plan go forward without leaving others behind. GOOD cannot accept a plan that places the repercussions of an underdeveloped plan on future generations leaders. 

Issued by Kaden Arguile, GOOD National Youth Organiser