Youth gangs disrupt rallies, civil rights meetings and polling stations, yet the politicians who bankroll them go unpunished.

The August attack at the rally of opposition wing Linda Mwananchi in Homa Bay, western Kenya, points to a rise of political intolerance across the country – a worrying trend as general elections approach. Two people died in the incident, 46 were injured, and six vehicles were torched.

Before the attack, a local politician aligned with President William Ruto’s government, Peter Kaluma, issued threats and mobilised youth to block access roads to the town, threatening those who worked with the opposition. Although the police arrested 17 suspected gang members, none of the political actors accused by the opposition was apprehended.

The Kofi Annan Foundation’s June 2026 Electoral Vulnerability Index report reveals an 84% probability of violence during next year’s general elections. Patronage competition along ethnic lines, youth mobilisation, economic grievances and police conduct in managing protests are presented as possible triggers.

Central to these dynamics is ‘political goonism’, which typically involves young people being enticed with money and alcohol to disrupt political functions, influence political competition and deter the public from attending rallies and voting. Widening inequality feeds the goon economy, with political violence offering short-term relief to the high number of unemployed youth.

Politicians recruit these youth, taking advantage of weak and selective police investigations. Recruits are paid as little as US$3.5-US$10, depending on politicians’ status, to intimidate and attack their rivals’ supporters. A National Crime Research Centre study put the number of local criminal gangs operating in 11 counties alone at 309.

Kenya’s political violence dates back to discriminatory land policies directed at Africans during colonialism. The colonial government deployed home guards to violently suppress resistance, targeting independence fighters – a tactic that has since evolved. Successive administrations have been accused of lax law enforcement against political goonism, which increasingly features during elections and public protests.

Kenya has experienced violence during every ballot since multiparty democracy was introduced in 1992. As new players emerged to challenge years of one-party dictatorship, political competition deepened a reliance on ethnic clientelism. This system rewards particular ethnic groups through development projects, jobs and other favours in exchange for votes.

In 1992, political elites aligned with the ruling Kenya African National Union organised armed gangs to attack perceived opponents of then president Daniel arap Moi’s government. Around 300 000 people were displaced, and voter turnout was low. The trend towards lower levels of violence during the 1997 and 2002 elections was crushed by the brutal 2007/8 post-election clashes that killed over 1 000 people.

Some parts of Kenya saw inter-communal clashes during the 2013 general election, and in 2017, security agencies conducted a brutal crackdown against opposition-aligned protesters. While the 2022 polls appeared more issue-based and were largely peaceful, gang violence reappeared during the March 2023 anti-government protests against high living costs.

This trend continued when goons were recruited to counter the 2024 Gen Z protests. In June 2026, closed-circuit television footage showed armed gangs invading Nairobi’s All Saints’ Cathedral, disrupting a civil rights group meeting in the church compound. The National Council of Churches of Kenya blamed the attack on an unnamed government official. No one has been held accountable.

In July, hooded armed men in unmarked high-end vehicles stormed polling stations during a by-election in Ol Kalou Constituency in central Kenya, clashing with a group of youths. Journalists were assaulted and their equipment confiscated. Allegations that the hooded men were ‘rogue police officers’ and that uniformed police at the scene failed to stop them have further eroded trust between the public and the police.

Kenya’s elections have long been highly charged and deeply divisive, with political parties often mobilising along ethnic or regional lines, turning polls into a contest of ‘us’ versus ‘them’.

Most political parties draw support from the regions associated with their leaders’ ethnic identities. Patronage extends to organised violent groups, and political violence cuts across political divides. Rogue political players and leaders use violence to disenfranchise opponents’ supporters and increase their bargaining power in post-election arrangements.

National development projects are skewed in favour of politically connected ethnic communities, and every community has a political kingpin who transacts with government on their behalf. Some politicians found to have infringed the law have claimed they were targeted because of their ethnic identity. An example is the impeachment of former deputy president Rigathi Gachagua, which was viewed as unfair by his ethnic voting bloc of Mount Kenya.

The country’s top leadership has become captive to ethnic voting blocs, making it difficult to draw a line between holding government officials accountable and protecting tribal loyalty.

The National Cohesion and Integration Commission (NCIC) has issued summonses to political leaders accused of spreading hate speech. But many have gone unanswered, reflecting a culture of impunity that persists despite Kenya’s democratic gains. This is compounded by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission’s failure to disqualify candidates who use violence as a political tool.

Political goonism risks driving Kenya down the road to deadly electoral violence in 2027. The Ministry of Interior and National Administration should reinforce warnings with action by conducting political violence hotspot mapping, deploying sufficient police officers during political rallies, and investing in intelligence gathering.

The NCIC should consider peace messaging through the mainstream media and countrywide peace caravans. In collaboration with the National Police Service, it should ensure that those contravening the law are arrested and prosecuted, regardless of social or political status.

The government should create community outreach support programmes with a structured platform for youth to engage in peaceful activities such as sports, mentorship programmes and gainful economic activities to reduce the incentive to act as political goons.

Written by Guyo Chepe Turi, Research Officer, East Africa Peace and Security Governance, ISS Nairobi