There has never been a more important time than today to change South Africa’s economic narrative. The country currently has the highest unemployment rate (46.6% of the labour force per the expanded definition) in the world as well as the highest youth unemployment rate (77.4% per the expanded definition) on the planet. South African respondents to the survey underpinning the World Economic Forum (WEF) Global Risks Report 2022 identified prolonged economic stagnation as the number one risk for the country.

South Africa’s real GDP per capita declined every year during 2015-2022 as slow economic growth failed to keep pace with an expanding population. Following the 2021 bounce-back in GDP, economic growth will soon revert to its long-term low growth trend if structural changes are not made. We estimate that following the 2020 recession, the South African economy expanded by more than 4.0% last year. Our forecasts suggest a growth rate of 2.5% this year, moderating to 2.0% in 2023 and 1.5% in 2024. This is actually a little bit more optimistic compared to National Treasury forecasts.

Report by PwC