According to the latest data from the Central Energy Fund, the petrol price is currently set for a hike of around R1.25 a litre, while diesel could be increased by R1.29.

Given the current outlook, 95 octane petrol in Gauteng could cost around a record high R21.39/l from the first week in March, with 93 octane petrol increasing to R21.13/l, the Automobile Association (AA) said in a statement.

The coastal price of 95 octane will also breach the R20/l mark for the first time, rising to R20.67/l, based on the current data. Diesel and illuminating paraffin will also increase to record levels.

Local fuel prices are determined by international oil prices - as well as the dollar-rand value, as South Africa buys oil in dollar.

The rand has been strengthening in recent times, breaking below R15/$ for the first time since November this week. However, the oil price continues to increase, with Brent oil now trading above $90 a barrel – from around $60 a year ago.

There is strong demand for oil as economies recovery from the pandemic, but at the same time, supply is constrained due to logistical and production problems.

"The rand is currently trading in a more positive band than it has for some weeks, with the local currency shaving around 17 cents off oil’s negative movement. Without this, the expected increases could have been between R1.40/l and R1.47/l for fuels across the board," the AA notes.

If the price of 95 octane petrol inland is hiked to R21.39 in March, that will be 31% higher than a year ago. The cost of diesel could rise from R14.12 in March 2021 to R19.33 in 2022 – a 37% hike.

The biggest increase, though, is in illuminating paraffin, the AA notes. "Considering the expected increase of R1.22/l for this fuel, the price in March 2022 could reach R13.19/l (off its current price of R11.97/l), which would represent a whopping 56% increase year-on-year."

"Naturally we are concerned about these expected increases which will undoubtedly put more pressure on already stretched consumers," Efficient Group chief economist Dawie Roodt says. "These hefty increases also reaffirm our belief that a review of the fuel price is necessary to establish if there are any components within the current pricing model that can be revised to mitigate against rising costs."

The AA called on the Minister of Finance Enoch Godongwana not to increase the General Fuel and Road Accident Fund levies in his budget speech next week. "Any relief – even in the form of non-increases – would be welcome to a consumer base already reeling from economic hardship."