A number of African countries have attempted to consolidate their democracies by scheduling presidential and Parliamentary elections in 2012. Egypt’s Parliamentary and presidential elections ended with the victory of the Muslim Brotherhood. Kenya has once again been riddled by intimidation and violence, thus having to postpone elections; and in the case of Mali, a coup d’état has rendered the election date uncertain. Senegal held both Parliamentary and presidential elections, which were widely regarded as a testament to the country’s democratic pre-eminence in the West African region. By the end of 2012, Togo, Sierra Leone, Ghana, Burkina Faso and Madagascar are also expected to hold elections.

This paper attempts to analyse the most important elections that have taken place on the African continent, while also undertaking a preview of upcoming elections. A few case studies from each of the regions in Africa are used to discuss the outcomes of past elections and the potential implications of upcoming elections. Ultimately, the paper attempts an assessment of the contributions of these elections to the consolidation of democracy in Africa.

North Africa

Following the recent political uprisings in North Africa, elections were scheduled in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya as a continuation of the political transformation that had been set in motion by the ousting of the dictatorships in these countries. Due to their regional importance, the analysis in this section focuses on the presidential and Parliamentary elections in Egypt and Libya respectively.

Egypt’s presidential elections regarded as a ‘nightmare scenario’

Egypt’s presidential election, held on 23 and 24 May (first round) and 16 and 17 June (second round), was only the second election in Egypt’s history involving more than one candidate. For a country that has only recently gone through a regime change, where in 2011 former president, Hosni Mubarak, was overthrown after 30 years in power, the recent election could be regarded as a step in the right direction; a step towards a more democratic Egypt. However, many observers have claimed that the May/June presidential elections were nothing more than a nightmare scenario, given their extreme polarisation.

The presidential election revolved around two main candidates, Mohammed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood and Ahmed Shafiq, a former Prime Minister under the presidency of Mubarak.⁽²⁾ Many Egyptians regarded the elections as a nightmare scenario based on the fact that Morsi, whose affiliation lies with the Muslim Brotherhood, was described as despotic and fanatical, while Shafiq, seen as a remnant of the former regime, was described as a person who would try to restore the old regime.⁽³⁾ Some observers went as far as saying that Shafiq was climbing to power over the corpses of the martyrs of the revolution. Nevertheless, the elections passed without major incident, with a voter turnout of 51.58%, and in the first round of voting, Morsi and Shafiq polled at 26% and 23% respectively. In the second round of voting, Morsi polled at 51.73% compared to Shafiq’s 48.27%, thereby beating Shafiq with more than 900,000 votes and winning the title of Egypt’s fifth president.⁽⁴⁾

Morsi’s Muslim Brotherhood already dominates Egypt's Parliament, after winning the 28 November 2011 to 11 January 2012 Parliamentary elections with 47% of the votes. The hard-line Islamist Salafi al-Nour party won 24%, while the liberal al-Wafd party won 7%. Not only does this mean that Islamists control over 70% of the 498 seats in Parliament, but it also indicates a low support base for parties associated with former President Mubarak’s regime, as well as the more secular-minded youth protest leaders who ousted Mubarak in 2011.⁽⁵⁾ After the Muslim Brotherhoods’ Parliamentary victory, Morsi’s presidential victory came as no surprise. Whether or not this outcome is a positive one depends not only on individual perceptions, but also on the commitment of President Morsi to bring about the renaissance that he campaigned for. President Morsi promised a renaissance that would curb the Mubarak-era corruption and improve the country’s infrastructure. However, there are fears that Morsi’s renaissance will also introduce a greater degree of rule by Islamic law, which many Egyptians and their closest neighbours, such as Israel, fear most.⁽⁶⁾ Nevertheless, whatever the outcome of these elections, perhaps their major significance lies in the fact that the people of Egypt were allowed, for the first time, to freely choose their president.

Libya’s secularist bloc wins Parliamentary majority

Despite their proximity and similar history and experience, particularly in the past year, Libya’s 7 July 2012 Parliamentary elections share little common ground with the May/June 2012 presidential elections in Egypt. While both elections were characterised by the contest between the Muslim Brotherhood and secular/liberal groups and candidates, Libya’s elections ended with the Muslim Brotherhood having to concede defeat. The Parliamentary elections were the first elections since the overthrow of late Colonel Gaddafi, and were seen as a landmark election, with a broad coalition of secular parties winning the majority of seats in the 200-member General National Assembly.⁽⁷⁾

More than 100 parties competed in the polls, and most of them were formed in the aftermath of the uprising/rebellion in Libya. The National Forces Alliance (NFA), led by ex-interim Prime Minster Mahmoud Jibril, won 41 out of 80 seats reserved for political parties, while the Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated Justice and Construction Party gained 17 of the seats. The remaining 120 seats, reserved for constituencies, were divided among independent candidates.⁽⁸⁾ Libya’s last fully free Parliamentary elections were held in 1952; therefore, these elections marked a turning point in Libya’s election history. Additionally, a voter turnout of 62% serves as testament to the Libyan people’s commitment to democracy and their hope for a better tomorrow. Additionally, European Union (EU) election observers said that the election process was “peaceful and smooth,” even though some technical delays and violence disrupted polling in several locations.⁽⁹⁾

For some observers, the victory of the NFA came as a surprise, given the ascendancy of the Muslim Brotherhood in the region. However, it turned out that Jibril’s strong, diverse and moderate coalition was the most obvious choice for most Libyans. The NFA coalition included an assortment of individuals, from liberals to Islamists, but unlike what happened in Egypt, where the moderate-secularist vote was split between so many candidates and thereby paved the way for the Islamist victory, in Libya, the moderates and Islamists managed to cooperate and assemble a unified and strong coalition, and ultimately won. Another reason for the Muslim Brotherhood’s loss in the Parliamentary elections was the group’s collaboration with the Gaddafi regime in the past and their perceived role as Qatar’s political pawns.⁽¹⁰⁾ In addition, many Libyans look at Mahmoud Jibril favourably due to his role as the rebellious and revolutionary Prime Minister under the Gaddafi regime, while additionally having an American education and thereby good relations with the West. Ultimately, even under the Gaddafi regime the Islamists were oppressed and had little social influence, while the moderates were the instigators of the revolution. The fact that Libya, unlike its closest neighbours Egypt and Syria, was relatively stable and functioning after the ousting of Gaddafi, was just another factor influencing the moderates’ advantage in the 7 July 2012 Parliamentary elections.⁽¹¹⁾

East and Horn of Africa

For some time now, socio-political and economic dynamics in the East and the Horn of Africa have been shaped by the insurgency in Somalia. The year 2012 brought hope to this volatile region as African Union peacekeepers and Somali soldiers, backed by forces from Kenya, made major gains against the Islamist Al-Shabaab rebels. More importantly, the international community finally succeeded in putting pressure on Somali leaders to elect new political institutions that would consolidate peace in the country. Ironically, prospects for stability in Somalia have been accompanied by rising uncertainty about the political situation in Kenya, in the wake of the postponement of presidential and Parliamentary elections in the country. This section of the paper analyses the elections in Somalia and Kenya.

A new hope for Somalia after presidential elections?

Bearing the title of the world’s most failed state, Somalia is by no means a place where elections of any kind are to be taken lightly or seen as an occurrence of little importance. The 10 September 2012 presidential elections, which brought to power Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud, were hailed as a breath of fresh air for the complex world of Somali politics, and for the country as a whole.⁽¹²⁾ Being a newcomer to politics and having set up his Peace and Development Party only in 2010, President Mahmoud is regarded both as a strength and weakness. He is not associated with the violence and corruption of Somalia’s past, but his lack of political experience in an arena filled with powerful politicians who lost in the elections may hamper the successful execution of his presidential mandate. In addition, even though President Mahmoud was not elected by the people but by the country’s members of Parliament, he appears to have quite a large popular support base, probably due to his academic career and his background as a civil society activist.

Despite the many challenges that President Mahmoud has to face, especially with regard to the continuous threat to security and rule of law posed by al-Shabaab and the on-going dispute with Somaliland,  President Mahmoud has come to power at a time of relative optimism, particularly in the capital, Mogadishu. While the rebuilding of shattered properties is an on-going process, one that is often disrupted by unrest and threats from al-Shabaab, it is a reflection of the spirit of hope that the Somali people carry within them. If President Mahmoud should be able to harness that spirit and unite the people of Somalia to rally behind him, Somalia will be one step closer to the goal of becoming a viable nation state once more.⁽¹³⁾ While President Mahmoud is still only President in name, the establishment of a new federal system, as decided by the new Constitution, is already underway; however, the allocation of power between the capital, Mogadishu, and the other regions has not been decided yet. President Mahmoud is therefore presented with the challenge of cautiously balancing the power in order to keep Somalia’s powerful clans and regions satisfied.⁽¹⁴⁾

Kenya riddled by the consequences of postponed elections

On 14 August 2012, Kenyans were supposed to vote for their new president and lawmakers in the country’s first Parliamentary and presidential elections since the 2007 poll that gave rise to violent clashes. Over 1,000 people were killed and 350,000 displaced by the violence. However, the August 2012 elections were postponed until 4 March 2013 by a High Court order.⁽¹⁵⁾ The elections were postponed due to President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s inability to reach an agreement on the new election date. Under the new Constitution, endorsed by a referendum in 2010, the election was set for August 2012, exactly five years after the previous elections were held. However, the ultimate decision to dissolve the coalition Parliament and allow the electoral body to proceed with organising new elections must be jointly made by the two principals of Kenya’s coalition Government, President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga. Both leaders, however, find themselves in a state of deadlock. This stalemate forced a number of Kenyans to approach the High Court and ask for a solution to the problem. The High Court proposed January 2013 and March 2013 as new election dates, to the dissatisfaction of most Kenyans. Kenyans are eager to vote, which would give them the opportunity to eliminate the perceived lazy and corrupt lawmakers, whose actions serve more to the detriment than the wellbeing of the country in general.⁽¹⁶⁾ While Prime Minister Odinga leads in opinion polls in the race to replace Kibaki, Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister, Uhuru Kenyatta, and former Minister of Education, William Ruto, both facing International Criminal Court charges over the 2007 post-election violence, are Odinga’s main rivals in the upcoming presidential and Parliamentary elections.⁽¹⁷⁾ The dispute over the election date, coupled with rising ethnic tensions and the general population’s lack of trust in the current political institutions and their lawmakers, are clear indications of the political instability that Kenya is facing, one that needs to be resolved sooner rather than later.

West Africa

While the Senegalese February/March 2012 presidential and July 2012 Parliamentary elections were hailed as a great victory of democracy and an example for neighbouring countries, the upcoming December 2012 presidential and Parliamentary elections in Ghana as well as the November 2012 presidential and Parliamentary elections in Sierra Leone warrant a degree of mindfulness.

Sierra Leone’s upcoming elections a test for democracy

On 17 November 2012, Sierra Leone is expected to hold presidential, Parliamentary, local council and mayoral elections. The ruling All People’s Congress (APC), which was in power from the end of World War II until 1991, and historically draws its support from the northwest, faces stiff competition from the the current opposition, the Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP), that draws its support from the southeast. Even so, Sierra Leoneans are hopeful that the upcoming 17 November 2012 elections will not result in regional rivalry and violent clashes, as has happened many times before, particularly during the 1973 and 1977 Parliamentary elections. These elections will be a test of the country’s democracy, but also of the ability of all the actors involved to ensure peaceful, inclusive and credible elections. Therefore, the free and fair execution of the elections is of crucial importance. According to Jens Anders Toyberg-Frandzen, the United Nations (UN) Secretary-General’s Executive Representative and head of the UN Integrated Peace building Office in Sierra Leone (UNIPSIL), the upcoming polls and their anticipated successful conduct will not only show the maturity of Sierra Leone’s political leadership and institutions, but also serve as an opportunity to further consolidate peace and democracy in a country whose present still bares the consequences of a past tainted by civil war.⁽¹⁸⁾

Ghana focuses on upcoming elections amidst mourning of President Mills

Just hours after the death of President Johan Atta Mills, Vice President John Dramani Mahama was sworn in as Ghana’s new president, thereby ensuring that the country avoided the kind of messy transition that plagued, and still plagues, other countries in the conflict-prone region.⁽¹⁹⁾ The death of President Mills, however, served to shift the focus of Ghanaian politics to the upcoming December 2012 presidential and Parliamentary elections. International analysts contend that the elections may be affected by the on-going tensions within the major political parties. For example, the ruling National Democratic Congress (NDC), is currently struggling with a leadership battle over who will succeed its late leader, Atta Mills. Similarly, the opposition New Patriotic Party (NPP) continues to be characterised by tensions between supporters of rival aspirants to the party’s leadership, a conflict that has been on-going since the 2008 presidential elections. Observers are concerned that these intra-party tensions could have important political ramifications on Ghanaian politics. Unless both the NDS and the NPP put the interest of the country above the personal aspirations and desires of party elite, the tensions within them could affect not only Ghana’s stability, but also challenge Ghana’s reputation as a beacon of democratic governance and the bastion of peace on the African continent.⁽²⁰⁾  

Southern Africa

In Southern Africa, a continued dispute over Zimbabwe’s constitution drafting process in anticipation of upcoming elections that would put an end to the much detested coalition Government, has been the major political highlight in the region, even overshadowing Parliamentary elections in Lesotho. However, it is the August 2012 elections in Angola that deserve to be underscored, given the rise of Angola as an important player not only in the region but also on the continent.

Angola’s President of 33 years to rule for another 5 years

On 31 August 2012, Angolans voted once again for new lawmakers in the country’s Parliamentary elections. The elections passed without major incident, although the low voter turnout indicates that Angola still has a long way to go with regard to consolidating its democracy.  In comparison to the 2008 Parliamentary elections where voter turnout was at 87.4%, this year’s elections had a voter turnout of only 62.8%.⁽²¹⁾ Of the 9,757,671 registered voters, only 5,756,004 were able to cast valid votes. This is partly due to faulty electoral rolls which included people who had died a long time ago. In addition, many voters were told at their neighbourhood voting stations that they were supposed to vote at another station, hundreds of kilometres away.⁽²²⁾ Moreover, the low voter turnout this year could also be attributed to perceptions of vote rigging in favour of President Jose Eduardo Dos Santos’ Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) party. The MPLA won this year’s election with 71.85% compared to the 81.64% win in 2008. President Dos Santos has repeatedly postponed the presidential elections until the National Assembly reached a decision to change the Constitution in 2010, so that the leader of the party with the highest votes in the Parliamentary elections automatically becomes president.  This year’s victory for the MPLA means that President Dos Santos has secured another five years in office, after having already served 33 years as president of Sub-Saharan Africa’s second-largest oil producer.⁽²³⁾ Angola is also increasingly becoming one of the pivotal states in African politics. The largest opposition party, the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA), won 18.67% of the votes in the August 2012 elections.⁽²⁴⁾ Opposition parties and civil society activists claim that the MPLA victory came as no surprise and that the credibility and transparency of the voting process is questionable.⁽²⁵⁾

Is democracy being consolidated on the continent?

According to former UN General Secretary, Kofi Annan, democracy is a universal value and aspiration, unbound by region, ethnicity, religion or culture. Elections provide citizens with a say in the decisions that affect their everyday lives and provide governments with a legitimate authority to govern. However, only when elections are free, fair and credible can they help promote democracy, human rights and security. On the other hand, when elections are fraudulent and subject to vote rigging, they have the potential to trigger political instability and violence, such as that witnessed in Kenya in 2007. Thus, for democracy to fulfil its potential, the integrity of elections is crucial.⁽²⁶⁾ Electoral integrity is threatened by many factors, which are not limited to poor or conflict-torn countries. Long-standing democracies see a decline in citizen trust in democratic institutions and process, mainly due to reasons relating to the global recession and rising inequality that not even the strongest states are immune to. Moreover, while governments in long-standing democracies are struggling to uphold their profile of being trustworthy and legitimate, newly formed governments born out of revolutionary transitions in countries such as Egypt and Libya, are faced with both opportunities and dangerous pitfalls.⁽²⁷⁾ While integrity in elections is crucial, there are other factors that will influence the outcome of elections and thereby contribute to building citizens’ trust in democracy.

Annan outlines five crucial challenges that need to be addressed in order to maintain election integrity and uphold democratic values:

• The rule of law needs to be strengthened in order to protect the rights of voters and candidates
• Elections should be managed by professional and independent national bodies in order to maintain credibility and avoid the kind of disaster that happened in Kenya in 2007
• Avoid the ‘winner-takes-all’ politics by encouraging building of institutions and processes that are vital for multi-party competition and division of power
• Remove the barriers that prevent voting and promote inclusion of women, minorities and other marginalised groups
• Minimise the flow of unregulated money in politics, which undermines voters faith in elections and ultimately in democracy and instead breeds fear that wealth buys political power and influence.⁽²⁸⁾

While the abovementioned challenges are universal, they may potentially have worse consequences in African states, unless addressed properly and in time. As mentioned previously, even though they passed relatively calmly and without major disturbances, the elections in Egypt and Libya are only the first stepping stone on the countries’ paths towards democracy. These two countries have a long way to go in the process of consolidating their democracies. However, the relatively calm elections indicate a level of maturity and a desire for change amongst Egyptians and Libyans. Furthermore, despite the fact that the presidential elections in Somalia were not by popular vote, they do indicate a certain level of progress and reflect hope on the part of parliamentarians and citizens. As claimed by Annan, election integrity is crucial, but the establishment of the rule of law precedes that. In the Somali case, hope exists that the new President will be able to establish the rule of law and thereby put the country on the right track, that is, if he does not succumb to the grip of the winner-takes-all phenomenon, as so many before him have done.

In countries like Sierra Leone, where the wounds of civil war are still very present, electoral integrity is particularly important. If managed properly, the upcoming 17 November 2012 elections will serve as an indicator of the country’s commitment to peace and democracy. Ghana on the other hand, a West African and potentially African beacon of hope and democracy, has been plagued by rivalry within its major political parties over the course of the last few months, a development that may have a devastating effect on the country as a whole, during and after the upcoming December 2012 elections. These two cases are prime examples of Annan’s assertion that not even long-standing democracies are immune to the challenges that arise during elections, and that electoral integrity is a crucial aspect of democracy. Ultimately, Angola has witnessed a decline in voter turnout between the 2008 and 2012 Parliamentary elections. Analysts claim that this is due to perceived vote rigging, mismanagement of electoral rolls and the perceived corrupt dealings of President Dos Santos’ ruling MPLA party. This case study is the perfect example of Annan’s five challenges to holding elections with integrity, where mismanagement of electoral lists, uncontrolled flow of campaign finances and the highly present “winner-takes-all” phenomenon all contribute to not only fraudulent elections, but to the slow demise of democracy.

Concluding remarks

The year 2012 has so far proven to be a turbulent one with regard to upholding democratic values on the African continent. While democratic processes and values are slowly gaining momentum in Egypt and Libya, where elections were held for the first time after many decades of dictatorship; in other African countries, such as Angola, which have been on the democratic path for many years, the future of democracy appears to be dwindling. As stated by Kofi Annan, elections with integrity are not the solemn instigator of citizens’ trust in democracy, but they are a crucial stepping stone. Therefore, African governments and their people must make a commitment to render the electoral process credible and fair, without which efforts to consolidate democracy on the continent will continue to remain lacking.

Written by Nusa Tukic ⁽¹⁾

NOTES:

(1) Contact Nusa Tukic through Consultancy Africa Intelligence’s Elections and Democracy Unit ( election.democracy@consultancyafrica.com)
(2) Black, I., ‘Egyptian election results present ‘nightmare scenario’’, The Guardian, 25 May 2012, http://www.guardian.co.uk.
(3) Ibid.
(4) ‘Muslim Brotherhood's Mursi declared Egypt President’, BBC News, 24 June 2012, http://www.bbc.co.uk.
(5) Bradley, M., ‘Islamic Parties Dominate Egypt Parliamentary elections’, The Wall Street Journal, 21 January 2012, http://online.wsj.com.
(6) Black, I., ‘Egyptian election results present ‘nightmare scenario’’, The Guardian, 25 May 2012, http://www.guardian.co.uk.
(7) ‘Libya election success for secularist Jibril's bloc’, BBC News, 18 July 2012, http://www.bbc.co.uk.
(8) Stephen, C., ‘Mahmoud Jibril's centrist party dominates Libyan election’, The Guardian, 17 July 2012, http://www.guardian.co.uk.
(9) ‘Libya election success for secularist Jibril's bloc’, BBC News, 18 July 2012, http://www.bbc.co.uk.
(10) VanDyke, M., ‘Why Islamists lost in Libya and why nobody should be surprised’, The Huffington Post, 20 July 2012, http://www.huffingtonpost.com.
(11) Ibid.
(12) Harper, M., ‘Will President Mohamud be able to tame Somalia?’, BBC News, 11 September 2012, http://www.bbc.co.uk.
(13) Ibid.
(14) Ibid.
(15) Leposo, L., ‘Kenya sets March 2013 election date’, CNN News, 17 March 2012, http://articles.cnn.com.
(16) Macharia, J., ‘UPDATE 3-Kenya high court delays elections to March 2013’, Reuters, 13 January 2012, http://www.reuters.com.
(17) Ibid.
(18) ‘Sierra Leone: UN calls for credible polls on November 17’, African Elections Project, 18 September 2012, http://africanelections.org.
(19) Kpodo, K., ‘As Ghana mourns president, focus turns to election race’, Reuters, 25 July 2012, http://www.reuters.com.
(20) Sowah, K. N., ‘Peace & security are vital for Ghana’s Election 2012’, Ghanaian Chronicle, 27 September 2012, http://ghanaian-chronicle.com.
(21) ‘Elections in Angola’, African Election Database, 8 September 2012, http://africanelections.tripod.com.
(22) Ahrens, L., ‘40 percent abstention at Angola elections’, Bloomberg Businessweek News, 4 September 2012, http://www.businessweek.com.
(23) Ibid.
(24) ‘Elections in Angola’, African Election Database, 8 September 2012, http://africanelections.tripod.com.
(25) Fletcher, P. and Laxmidas, S., ‘UPDATE 3-Angola's Dos Santos secures big election win’, Reuters, 2 September 2012, http://in.reuters.com.
(26) Annan, K., ‘Annan: Why we should grade countries on their elections’, CNN News, 20 September 2012, http://edition.cnn.com.
(27) Ibid.
(28) Ibid.