This paper interrogates major trends in the outcome of the 2024 national and provincial elections against the backdrop of South Africa’s broad political economy.

Virtually all analyses of the elections converge at the self-evident conclusion that a fundamental shift has occurred in South Africa’s body politic. But, in large measure, that is where the consensus ends.

Among the questions that need further interrogation is whether the plummeting of the ANC’s support implies the death of the liberation idea! Is South Africa’s ideological centre of gravity shifting left- or right-wards? What are the implications of the coalescence of the centre-left and the centre-right in the multi-party Government of National Unity (GNU), and is it conceptually appropriate to draw parallels between the current GNU and the 1994 political arrangement?

None of these questions lend themselves to easy answers. However, the electoral facts and figures do point to important macrosocial trends.

Starting with high-level data, extrapolations are then made on broader issues such as identity and socio-economic orientations, as well as political coalitions and social compacting.

Paper by the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection