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The political future of South Africa's former Deputy President Jacob Zuma and his chances of becoming the nation's next head of state rest on the outcome of his trial on corruption charges that starts on July 31.

Zuma, 64, who is trying to resurrect his political career since being fired by President Thabo Mbeki last year after the corruption allegations surfaced, denies any wrongdoing and says there is a plot to discredit him. Zuma was acquitted on May 8 of rape, a charge he also said was politically motivated.

The African National Congress, which has ruled the country since the end of the apartheid regime in 1994, will elect its next leader at a conference in December 2007. The winner is likely to become president after elections in 2009, given that two-thirds of the population has backed the ANC in the past decade. Many labor unionists and the ruling party's youth league back Zuma.

“The case will determine whether Zuma remains a candidate for the ANC leadership race in 2007,” said Aubrey Matshiqi, an independent political analyst in Johannesburg. “If he's acquitted, I'm certain he will emerge as the strongest candidate.”

Zuma has said he backs current ANC economic policy and that the value of the rand must be determined in the market.

The Durban High Court on June 2 ruled that Schabir Shaik, Zuma's adviser, tried to solicit a bribe for Zuma in exchange for political support to win weapons contracts. The trial raised ``questions of conduct that would be inconsistent with expectations that attend those who hold public office,'' Mbeki told parliament on June 14 after firing Zuma.

While Zuma has yet to be served with a final indictment, he has been charged with two counts of corruption, which are a “mirror” of those in the Shaik trial, said Makhosini Nkosi, a spokesman for the National Prosecuting Authority.

Thint, a local unit of Thales SA, Europe's No.1 military electronics maker that allegedly tried to bribe Zuma, is a co-accused in his trial.

The case, which will take place in the High Court in Pietermaritzburg in the eastern KwaZulu-Natal province, may take months. Prosecutors plan to ask the court to delay the case until next year because they need more time to investigate, Nkosi said.

Zuma will oppose any delay.

Michael Hulley, Zuma's lawyer, told the South African Broadcasting Corp. that he will file documents this week asking the court to ensure Zuma's constitutional rights to a fair and speedy trial are respected. The state broadcaster said Zuma is expected to ask the court to drop the case.

Hulley did not return Bloomberg calls to his mobile phone seeking comment.

The ANC will probably decide on its next leader before its national conference, and Zuma's bid may be compromised while the fraud charges are hanging over him, said Jonathan Faull, a political analyst at the Institute for Democracy in South Africa.

“By the end of this year, there needs to be a fairly broad understanding of who is in the running,” Faull said in an interview in Cape Town. “The jockeying should start now.”

The son of a policeman and a maid, Zuma had no formal education. He joined the armed struggle against apartheid and in 1963 was convicted of conspiring to overthrow the government and sentenced to a 10-year jail term.

After all-race elections in 1994, he served in the provincial government of KwaZulu-Natal, where he helped broker an end to a conflict between the ANC and the Zulu-nationalist Inkatha Freedom Party. Mbeki named him deputy president in June 1999.

During his rape trial, Zuma testified he had consensual sex without a condom with his 31 year-old accuser, who is HIV-positive. After his acquittal, he apologized, saying he had acted irresponsibly.

Other potential candidates for the presidency include the ANC's Secretary-General Kgalema Motlanthe and Cyril Ramaphosa, one of the country's wealthiest black businessmen.

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