Tunisia is the latest state to follow the African trend of citizens attempting to resolve problems by resorting to violence because of an incompetent Government. The citizens of Tunisia are currently faced with a situation similar to that of Zimbabwe, including high prices of food, rising unemployment and being deprived of basic civil liberties such as freedom of speech. Frustrations mounted and they began protesting in order for the Government to take note of their concerns, in addition to wanting Tunisian President Zine El Ben Ali to step down. To ease the tensions, Ben Ali declared that he will not seek another term in 2014 and also ordered a price cut on selected foods. This however, did not appease the angry and frustrated Tunisians.⁽²⁾ The question now is will Ben Ali keep his word of not seeking another term or will he stage a comeback when the protests have died down?

This discussion paper will project whether Ben Ali will keep to his word or not, first focussing on the history of his governing system. Second, it will project the next move by looking at Ben Ali’s associations, particularly with the Arab world.

Ben Ali’s governing system

Most African Presidents have a hunger for power, and this is particularly true of Presidents who came to power through a liberation movement or coup d'état, both nonviolent and violent. For example, Robert Mugabe is the second President of Zimbabwe who came into power through a liberation movement against white minority.⁽³⁾ Ben Ali became President of Tunisia after a coup d’état against the first President of Tunisia Habib Bourguiba.⁽⁴⁾ Ben Ali has been the President since 1987, even though Tunisia is a multi-party state and its political system has been organised under the Constitution.⁽⁵⁾

The twenty-three years of rule raises concerns on Ben Ali’s intentions of extending his rule in 2014. It is granted that through elections people make their choice of the political party they want, and ultimately the leader of the country. It is alarming though, to have the same individual being the President of a political party and state for over two decades consecutively. An assumption can thus arise that Ben Ali will stage a comeback in 2014 or when the protests die down.

On 14 January 2011, he was ousted from the Presidential seat because the citizens of Tunisia demanded he leave office. During the protests, lives were lost and Ben Ali had no choice but to leave his Presidency. He has found refuge in Saudi Arabia and his family members have also fled the country.⁽⁶⁾ Although Ben Ali has fled the country, it would be unwise to assume that he will not want to return to power. In contrast with Mugabe, Ben Ali did not protest to stay in power, but he left after citizens demanded his resignation.⁽⁷⁾ However, this does not imply that he has no intentions of returning to power in the future and his intentions will only be visible in months or even years to come.

Arab association enough reason for a come back?

Tunisia is both a member of the African Union (AU) and a member of the Arab League; hence Ben Ali’s ousting caused tensions in the Arab world. Arab world leaders are criticised particularly by opposition parties and this has raised concerns on whether the Tunisian protests could be a precedent to the ousting of other Arab leaders.⁽⁸⁾ Ben Ali’s association with the Arab world can yield two outcomes. First, it can give him an opportunity to stage his come back when least expected. Second, his association and ousting can be a precedent for other Arab leaders to be expelled.

The first proposition is as valid as the second because in the history of the Arab world, the leaders have always united against the “enemy”. For example, the Arab world still believes that the Jews do not have the right to occupy Jerusalem and that the Jews are believed to threaten the existence of the Arab world, Palestinians in particular.⁽⁹⁾ Hence, any threat that might arise from Tunisia and threaten the existence of the Arab world can cause uproar and the taking back of Tunisia by violence.⁽¹⁰⁾

The second proposition assumes that the leaders of the Arab world stand at a possibility of being ousted. This is valid because opposition has gained momentum to call for the resignation of Arab leaders such as Omar al-Bashir of Sudan.⁽¹¹⁾ Recently, protests have sparked in Yemen because of service delivery. An activist, Tawakul Karman led the protests, calling for the resignation of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, which came after the protestors in Tunisia were successful in calling for Ben Ali to step down. Hence, other Arab leaders can also be challenged.⁽¹²⁾ These challenges might arise primarily because of the style of governance practiced in the Arab world, famous for authoritarian rule; and other Arab citizens might look at Tunisia as a catalyst to bring about a revolution in the Arab world.⁽¹³⁾

Conclusion

Tunisia is not the first state in Africa to experience such tensions. The concerns however, are the needs of the citizens. Only when the needs are properly addressed will the protests cease, as the frustrations of the people have reached an apex point. The discussions above have illustrated that Ben Ali could stage a comeback or gracefully stay out of the political arena, but it is only in the coming months that a conclusion on his future plans for Tunisia can be made.

NOTES:

(1) Contact Precious Ncongwane through Consultancy Africa Intelligence's Africa Watch Unit (africa.watch@consultancyafrica.com).
(2) “Tunisia President Ben Ali ‘will not seek another term’,” BBC News Africa, 13 January 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk.
(3) “Mugabe ‘an impossible obstacle’ to Zim deal,” Mail & Guardian, 22 December 2008, http://www.mg.co.za.
(4) Encyclopaedia of Nations, “History of Tunisia”, http://www.nationsencyclopedia.com.
(5) Ibid.
(6) “Watching and Waiting,” The Economist, 15 January 2011, http://www.economist.com.
(7) “Tunisia and the Arab world: Let the scent of jasmine spread. How wonderful if Tunisia became a paragon of democracy for other Arab countries to emulate,” The Economist, 20 January 2011, http://www.economist.com.
(8) “Tunisia unrest echo across the Arab World,” Times Live, 21 January 2011, http://www.timeslive.co.za.
(9) Black, I., “Expectations low for Arab summit to ‘save’ Jerusalem,” The Guardian, 25 March 2010, http://www.guardian.co.uk.
(10) “Tunisia and the Arab world: Let the scent of jasmine spread. How wonderful if Tunisia became a paragon of democracy for other Arab countries to emulate,” The Economist, 20 January 2011, http://www.economist.com.
(11) “Tunisia unrest echo across the Arab World,” Times Live, 21 January 2011, http://www.timeslive.co.za.
(12) “Yemen releases female activist after protests,” Reuters Africa, 24 January 2011, http://af.reuters.com.
(13) “Tunisia unrest echo across the Arab World,” Times Live, 21 January 2011, http://www.timeslive.co.za.

Written by Precious Ncongwane ⁽¹⁾