February 2011 has been a rather significant month in terms of Sudan’s evolution. This year, hopes for lasting peace in Sudan are firmly back on the global agenda, most importantly due to the national referendum that was held from 9-15 January 2011, and its later confirmation on 7 February 2011. But most recently, Sudan has been the cause for concern due to renewed conflicts in the South of Darfur and protests in Omdurman, the former capital, which lies adjacent to Khartoum.

Darfur

It is the events in Darfur which has seen President Omar al-Bashir burdened with charges of war crimes and genocide, making him an international pariah and near-prisoner within his borders. And in spite of this, there are still continued attacks against civilians in the region, by rebel groups, of course, but also reportedly by Government forces. Human Rights Watch’s Africa Director Daniel Bekele had this to say about resurging violence in the region this year: "We are seeing a return to past patterns of violence, with both Government and rebel forces targeting civilians and committing other abuses."⁽²⁾

It seems as if the attacks, such as the recent attack in and around Tabit in the north of Darfur on 25 January 2011 are once more targeting certain ethnic groups. It also seems to be a direct result of the Government’s removal of Minni Arko Minawi, who served as the Darfur Transitional Regional Authority, a man with a loyal faction of rebels that are also part of the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA).⁽³⁾

The Referendum

The South Sudan Referendum is without a doubt one of the most significant events in Sudan’s long history, let alone this year (2011). A vote which has been in the making since the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and which may now see the creation of the world’s newest state, South Sudan, is worth noting within and without the state. Furthermore, the fact that the referendum was carried off with relative efficiency and has thus far been recognised and respected by President al-Bashir in the North, is also a victory for a population that voted 99% in favour of secession.⁽⁴⁾

The referendum will, however, not mean an end to the conflict, as there has already been a reported “massacre” in Jonglei, leaving 211 people dead. Rebels led by General George Athor, a losing candidate in the 2010 elections, have set about on a violent revolution in the South. They had agreed to a ceasefire for the duration of the referendum, but this latest atrocity on 15 February 2011 signals the end of this period.⁽⁵⁾

In addition, the oil rich Abyei region is another bone of contention that still needs to be decided upon, both for the sake of the Governments in the North and the South, but also for the people of this region. The Dinka Ngok group wants the region to be part of the South, whilst the Arabic Misseriya wants the region to remain as part of the North. Until now, these groups have been at odds over this point and over issues relating to their cattle herds. A recent peace accord signed on 14 February 2011 between the Dinka Ngok and Misseriya may see the potential for conflict in this region dissipate to some degree.⁽⁶⁾

Arab world protests

Regimes are toppling all over the Arab world. Autocratic regimes, which were previously thought of as bulletproof, have started to crack and in some cases to crumble entirely. Whilst low living standards, unemployment, and states’ disregard for human rights have been a long standing issue, the global protests were sparked by a Tunisian man, Mohamed Bouazizi, a street vendor who set himself on fire to protest the confiscation of his cart by the police, and the subsequent beating he received from them. This radical, yet moving act of self-immolation proved to be the spark which set off the powder keg, and the Tunisian people, in spite of violent opposition by the state, forced President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, and his key ministers to step down. The protest was assisted by anonymous’ denial-of-service attacks, international pressure, the Tunisian Bar Association, local journalists, and other activists. Information, which added fuel to the fire, came from Wikileaks and activists using social media platforms, like Twitter and Facebook, to help organise their efforts. In the end, however, it was the unwavering commitment of the Tunisian population that made the difference.⁽⁷⁾

Events in Tunisia, dubbed the Jasmine revolution, have been echoed around the Arab world (similar to Eastern Europe’s Velvet Revolution after the Cold War), inspiring protests in other states, including Yemen, Bahrain, Algeria, Libya, Iraq, Iran, and Sudan to name a few. Egypt’s uprising was probably the most important, ending the three-decade long rule of Hosni Mubarak on 11 February 2011. This was an important revolution, partially because of Egypt’s influence both regionally and globally, but also due to the historic lesson it spreads of the power of non-violent protest.⁽⁸⁾

These are the two major success stories to come out of the Arab world protests, but their success has not been ubiquitous. Other protests have had limited success or none at all. In Sudan, for instance, the Government violently put an end to any attempt to protest. On 30 January 2011, thousands of students and supporters protested in Omdurman against the leading National Congress Party and Government-led price increases. Armed riot police and national security forces violently stamped out the protests, arresting more than 100 people, (including nine journalists for Al Midan, a communist-affiliated newspaper, who were arrested outside their office)⁽⁹⁾ and killing one student, Mohammed Abderahman. There was an international outcry following this repressive reaction from the Government, and fears for some of the arrested, who can, according to the National Security Act, be held for up to four and a half months without any form of judicial review. Furthermore, the Government repressed the release of two national newspapers (one being Al Midan) on the two days of protests and arrests.⁽¹⁰⁾

The mood in Khartoum

I was glad to be in Khartoum this month, when the results of the referendum were announced, and just days after the student protests in Omdurman. A sense of being in the thick of history’s creation was not to be found, however, whether for good or ill. Touring the city and speaking to locals in Omdurman’s market relayed one strong message for one who calls London home: in a country which has endured decades and more of constant strife, and more than one oppressive regime, that this month was just like many before it. The gravity of the referendum was, of course, appreciated when asked about, and there was regret that they would be split from their countrymen in the South. In spite of unequal distribution n of resources and little social cohesion across Sudan, people in the South are still seen as fellow countrymen. Furthermore, this is a country with strong ties to its history and its identity as Africa’s largest state. The result has, however, been a foregone conclusion for some time, so the news on 7 February 2011 was received stoically and with little fanfare (in stark contrast to celebrations down South). And as for reports of violence over recent weeks (even those within the city), these were much less interesting to the residents of Sudan’s capital.

Khartoum is by no means an accurate reflection of the feelings of state, but no one area could give one insight into the whole state. This lack of cohesion is part of the problem. But as it is, Khartoum is carrying on, with lots of money and infrastructure (like bridge construction) flowing in from China. Sudan, as a whole, is by no means out of the woods, and Darfur and South Sudan are still going to be magnets for conflict. But as for further protests in Khartoum or Omdurman, there seems little chance for it. Firstly, Khartoum is a comparatively thriving, well-run city. Secondly, the Government has zero tolerance for anything it sees as civil disobedience and is seasoned at holding onto power in spite of immense global pressure against it. And finally, Sudan voted for Omar al-Bashir only last year and according to reports, the election was fairly run. So there seems little fuel for that fire.

Concluding remarks

Sudan seems to be at the nexus of some powerful competing forces, pulling the state in a number of directions, from protests, inspired by current events in the region, to resurgent ethnic violence in Darfur and the difficult times ahead for South Sudan, as they begin to etch out their hard won self-destiny.

NOTES:

(1) Contact Andre Lotz through Consultancy Africa Intelligence's Conflict & Terrorism Unit (conflict.terrorism@consultancyafrica.com).
(2) ‘Sudan: New Attacks on Civilians in Darfur’, Human Rights Watch, 2011, http://www.hrw.org/.
(3) Ibid.
(4) ‘South Sudan Backs Independence – Results’, BBC News, 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk/.
(5) Clarke, J., ‘Over 200 Dead in South Sudan “Massacre”: Officials’, Reuters, 2011, http://www.reuters.com/.
(6) ‘Sudan Deal to End Abyei Clashes’, BBC News, 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk/.
(7) Rifai, R., ‘Timeline: Tunisia’s Civil Unrest’, Al Jazeera, 2011, http://english.aljazeera.net/.
(8) ‘Timeline: Egypt’s Revolution’, Al Jazeera, 2011, http://english.aljazeera.net/.
(9) ‘Sudan: Amnesty Calls for Release of 16 Seized during Newspaper Raid’, Amnesty International, 2011, http://www.amnesty.org.uk/.
(10) ‘Violent Response to Peaceful Protests’, Human Rights Watch, 2011, http://www.hrw.org/.

Written by Andre Lotz ⁽¹⁾