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Date : 29/08/2005
Source: Ministry for Environmental Affairs and Tourism
Title: van Schalkwyk: Institute of Environment and Recreation Management Congress


Keynote speech by Marthinus Van Schalkwyk, Minister of Environmental Affairs & Tourism, opening the 2005 Congress of the Institute of Environment and Recreation Management, Port Elizabeth

CLIMATE CHANGE: DECISIONS TODAY TO PROTECT TOMORROW

Introduction

At the first African Regional Conference on Environment and Sustainable Development, held in Kampala in 1989, President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda said: “No nation, however powerful, can legislate against acid rain or ban it over its airspace. We have a common future and we must defend it if we are to survive on this planet.”

Two weeks ago I joined environmental Ministers and leaders from 25 nations in the small town of Illulisat in Greenland to discuss the defence of our future. Our discussions, on the dangers of climate change, were set against some of the most dramatic and persuasive scenery in the world – the Arctic icecap which has melted and thinned by almost 20% since 1950.  As we spoke, rivers of melt-water streamed down glaciers that have stood for millennia.  On the other side of the globe, the Larsen ice-shelf in Antarctica has also thinned, in places, by as much as 18 meters since 1990. There is, of course, no need to travel to the ends of the Earth to observe these warning signs.  The ice fields that have covered the peaks around Mount Kilimanjaro for nearly 12000 years have lost 82% of their ice since 1912.  If current climate trends hold true, the glaciers on Africa's highest summit could disappear by 2020.  Even closer to home, we have seen Marion Island warming significantly since 1980, warming of about 1 degree in the Western Cape over 30 years, and even possible early warning signs of desertification with a die-back of desert plants, such as the Kokerboom, in the Northern Cape and southern Namibia.

In other words – climate change is a powerful and threatening reality.  I am very pleased today to officially open this 2005 Congress of the Institute of Environment and Recreation Management, because it provides an opportunity for policy and decision-makers from a range of organisations and spheres of Government, to discuss the impact of the decisions we make today on our shared future.

The ‘Life-Span’ of Decisions, the Costs of Inaction & Opportunities for Growth

One of the more comfortable fictions with which most people live is the sincere belief that time is on our side.  When we speak of the dangers of global warming and climate change it is all too easy to shrug off impacts that are predicted for 20 years or 50 years time.  It is human nature to focus our energy and attention on the most immediate concerns.  A key insight for visionary governance is that our decisions today either build restrictive cages or allow growing opportunities for tomorrow.  As Churchill once said:  “We shape our buildings and afterwards they shape us.” This is even more true of policy decisions.

Uninformed decisions in Government, industry and even in households could lock South Africa’s next generation into even higher Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, inefficient energy use, and wasteful patterns of production.  Consider for a moment the lifespan of some basic infrastructure decisions: every vehicle purchased has a likely lifespan of at least ten years; factories and industrial developments remain as they are for at least thirty years; power stations and energy facilities last for fifty years; homes and offices have a lifespan of one hundred years; and decisions about land-use and development patterns last even longer than that.

Apart from the opportunity cost of our decisions, climate change will have a direct cost to our economy.  The Energy Research Centre at the University of Cape Town has estimated that the yearly cost to South Africa of not acting to adapt to the effects of climate change now, will be about 1,5% of GDP by 2050 – roughly equivalent to total annual Foreign Direct Investment in South Africa at present.  This is the cost of damages without the benefits and costs of taking action, i.e. adaptation.

It is the belief of our Department that this estimate is exceptionally conservative, and excludes the almost-certain indirect costs.  Since this week sees that start of Tourism Month let us take tourism as just one example.  Contributing almost R100 billion every year to our economy, it is one of South Africa’s most important growth sectors.  At least 30% of our tourism attractions however centre on our natural environment – from landscapes to wildlife.  Climate change and the resulting loss in biodiversity have the potential to do irreparable damage to key sectors like tourism.

Whilst inaction holds the potential for great costs to South Africa, the decision to respond proactively to climate change holds great opportunities for growth and development, especially as new technologies are introduced, and new skills transferred from developed countries. Achieving our 2013 additional renewable energy target of 10 000 giga watt hours, for instance, could have a positive impact on GDP of more than R1 billion, lead to additional government revenue of R299 million, additional income to low income households of R128 million, and water savings of up to 16,5 million kilolitres per year – at the same time creating just over 20 000 new jobs.  Reaching our national target of a 12% increase in energy efficiency will save money for industry and consumers, and reduce the emissions of local and global pollutants.

In other words, as managers and leaders, it is our responsibility to the future to ensure that the planning decisions we take or influence today are environmentally sustainable.  I would like to issue this challenge to all members and affiliates of the Institute of Environment and Recreation Management – to find the opportunities in your own sphere of work to support and promote our climate change response strategy.

Challenging the Sceptics - National Climate Change Conference

In spite of the scientific evidence, and the even-more persuasive directly observable effects of climate change, there remain a few vocal and hardened climate sceptics.  Sceptics are useful for keeping us on our toes but the balance of scientific evidence is overwhelming and we should not be distracted by wasteful debates with fringe scientists.  We have won the scientific debate and must now proceed on that basis.  The focus is not whether our climate is changing or if humans are contributing to the rate of that change, but rather how best do we respond? The time has come to apply the precautionary principle.  It is time to act, time to change behaviour, and time to prepare our communities to deal with the social, economic and human impacts of climate change.

In our national and international response we must not only reduce our contribution to the causes of climate change (mitigation), but in a particularly vulnerable developing country like South Africa adaptation must receive our highest priority.  Amongst the many focal areas for action are our needs to improve our capabilities for Earth observation and climate monitoring; bolstering our disaster management capacity to deal with extreme weather events; implementing initiatives to conserve fresh water supplies; and extensive further research into minimising the likely impacts on agriculture.  In other words – do we simply strengthen our existing crops to make them more resilient or do we need to switch what is planted from apples to grapes and olives for instance?  Where will our future grazing land be situated?  How do we avert the predicted reduction of up to 20% in maize crop yields?  These are the questions that must shape our response.

In the international arena, South Africa is poised to play a key role as a bridge-builder. One of our most urgent challenges as the global community is to convince all nations to join and support the international effort to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gasses. I have no doubt that the next few years will be crucial to move us out of an approach of stalling, of avoidance, and of excuses to one where we all accept our responsibility to deal with climate change within an inclusive multilateral international framework. Climate change is a global scourge and requires a unified global partnership for action.

For this reason Cabinet has approved the hosting of a major national conference on climate change in October.  The conference will run in two parallel and overlapping sessions at Gallagher Estate in Gauteng.  From 17 to 19 October there will be a meeting of eminent scientists from across the continent to advance scientific methodologies and research findings relating to climate change in Africa.  From 18 to 20 October the National Consultative Conference on Climate Change will be held to test and inform South Africa’s policies, strategy and action plans; explore the way forward on future commitments; generate inputs for the 2nd National Communication on climate change; revise policies to take into account new scientific developments; develop scenarios for the different international models being proposed to reduce GHG emissions; and more closely align our environmental approach with our development priorities.

This groundbreaking conference presents a direct challenge – especially to African scientists and experts in the field.  One of the single most important priorities is for us to integrate all available data into the global climate change models, to bring Africa and its reality into the climate change mainstream.

Conclusion

I would like to thank you for the invitation to join you at your congress today, and to wish you well for your discussions over the next three days.

It is our hope that initiatives like the October conference, our climate change response strategy, and partnerships with organisations such as your own, will bring together enough knowledge and generate enough consensus, to help us choose a different, better path for our people and our future.

It is my great pleasure to officially declare the 2005 IERM Congress open.

Issued by: Ministry for Environmental Affairs and Tourism
29 August 2005
   

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