There is a threat of a domino effect in other North African Arab countries following the relative success of the popular uprisings in both Egypt and Tunisia. Libya was soon to follow, but the uprisings proved more brutal, as President Muammar Gaddafi is reluctant to hand over power. The Jasmine Revolution, which took place in Tunisia in early January 2011, is testament to the volatility involved in having a large group of unemployed youth, combined with fragile political stability caused by social and economic challenges. Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali was President in Tunisia for 23 years, but on 14 January 2011, after 29 days of popular uprising, he was toppled and fled the country with his family.⁽²⁾ The uprising came as a result of years of corruption and high levels of unemployment, especially among young Tunisians.

The revolution escalated when Mohammed Bouazizi, set himself on fire in December 2010 to protest the political and economic disenfranchisement.⁽³⁾ Bouazizi was an educated, unemployed youth, who set himself on fire after the police confiscated the fruits and vegetables he was selling because he did not have a permit to do so.⁽⁴⁾ This act led to several youths committing suicide and people taking to the streets to protest.⁽⁵⁾ Although the protesters were able to oust President Ben Ali, uncertainty still remains with regard to Tunisia’s ability to address the issues of the people and achieve socio-economic transformation.⁽⁶⁾ The Arab-dominated region of North Africa is at risk of a domino effect caused by the events in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya, as several of the region’s countries are battling with similar challenges. It is also pressing to establish a new Government which the majority of the people will accept. The relative peace in Tunisia remains fragile, however, as the future is still uncertain.

Background

Tunisia became independent from France in 1956 and only had two leaders until the start of 2011; the first was President Habib Bourguiba, who was succeeded by President Ben Ali.⁽⁷⁾ The majority of the population comprises young people and half of the population is below 25 years of age.⁽⁸⁾ After decades of corruption and the clampdown of civil liberties, the unemployed youth of Tunisia had enough and were able to oust President Ben Ali.⁽⁹⁾ Fouad Mebazza, was sworn in as interim President, following a month of street protests.⁽¹⁰⁾ The interim President ordered the formation of a coalition Government and a presidential election will be held within 60 days, according to constitutional authorities.⁽¹¹⁾

The protests took place in response to citizens’ frustrations with general social and economic challenges, with specific attention to high levels of unemployment, official corruption, and rising food prices.⁽¹²⁾ Tunisia ranked 65th in the Corruption Perceptions Survey conducted by Transparency International in 2010.⁽¹³⁾ These factors, combined with a struggling exports market and global commodity prices, made it difficult for Tunisia to ease social tensions. There is also another element that affects the economic challenges facing Tunisia: a factor caused by international economics. According to the IMF, the lack of economic growth in the European Union (EU) influences Tunisia’s ability to ease social tensions as the EU is by far the largest partner when it comes to exports, workers’ remittances, and foreign direct investments (FDI).⁽¹⁴⁾ This makes it even more difficult for Tunisia to deal with its domestic political and economic issues since it is closely linked to outside influences. The stage was therefore set for a revolution and President Ben Ali was expelled from office.

The question now is what of the future of Tunisia? The people were able to overthrow President Ben Ali, but who will take over and how long will there be relative peace?⁽¹⁵⁾ There is also the question of whether the people will accept the new Government. The socio-economic challenges facing Tunisia are many and difficult to solve.⁽¹⁶⁾ A new Government may not be able to solve the challenges, and to overcome even some of them, will take time.⁽¹⁷⁾

Regional instability

These problems are not unique for Tunisia, but are challenges facing the Arab countries in North Africa. There are concerns that the expulsion of President Ben Ali may undermine rulers across the region that also rule by way of authoritarianism.⁽¹⁸⁾ The riots in Tunisia, followed by the demonstrations in Egypt and Libya, cause reason for alarm for a continent with fragile states and a large group of unemployed youths. Incidents like these may lead to regional instability and also encourage riots in other countries, particularly as several countries in Africa are suffering from high numbers of unemployed youths with no immediate prospects of jobs.⁽¹⁹⁾

Similar situations may arise in countries like Morocco and Algeria, and has already happened in Egypt and Libya; the former ranking well below Tunisia in Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index.⁽²⁰⁾ Various countries in the region are also struggling with social and economic challenges, where especially unemployment is high.⁽²¹⁾ The IMF estimated in October 2010 that the unemployment rate had reached 13.2% with more than 15% unemployment amongst university graduates.⁽²²⁾ This makes the region especially volatile as it has one of the highest unemployment rates among youth in the world, along with high levels of inflation, constrained political freedom, and fragile political stability.⁽²³⁾

Several events, somewhat similar to those in Tunisia and Egypt, have already taken place in the Arab-dominated region of North Africa, but these have been swiftly contained. In Sudan, opposition parties in the north were encouraging protests against austerity measures that led to an increase in fuel and sugar prices.⁽²⁴⁾ The demonstrations in Egypt also gained widespread media attention and finally led to President Hosni Mubarak stepping down and handing power over to the Supreme Council for the Armed Forces in mid-February 2011.⁽²⁵⁾ Prior to the demonstrations, Egypt experienced many of same challenges as Tunisia - rising food prices, high unemployment, and high levels of official corruption.⁽²⁶⁾ In Algeria, Tunisia’s neighbour, a state of emergency has been in place since 1992 and public demonstrations in Algiers, the capital, are banned.⁽²⁷⁾ Following the events in Tunisia, triggered by the same economic grievances, young people took to the streets in Algeria.⁽²⁸⁾ Unlike Tunisia and Egypt, however, the demonstrations have not escalated and the situation is currently relatively calm. Morocco, likewise, has been able to contain protests so far and allow limited freedom of expression.⁽²⁹⁾ Protests in Libya with Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, Africa’s longest serving ruler, erupted soon after Egypt and the uprisings have proved difficult and brutal as the President refuses to step down.⁽³⁰⁾

Following the events in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, the future of these three countries remain uncertain. The former two countries were able to overthrow their Presidents, but now the power vacuum needs to be filled and who will be accepted by the people?⁽³¹⁾ In Libya, the people are still fighting President Gaddafi, but if they succeed, a power vacuum will arise. Although the Tunisian and Egyptian Presidents are removed, the root causes for the revolutions and the socio-economic challenges are not solved.⁽³²⁾ The region, thus, remains volatile.

Concluding remarks

The growing problem of high levels of unemployed youths, combined with weak state institutions, limited freedom of expression, and no immediate prospects of future job opportunities have proven (and may continue) to cause trouble for several countries in the Arab-dominated region of North Africa. Tunisia may have been in need of a regime change after having been ruled by only two autocrats since independence in 1956, but this does not, however, guarantee stability in Tunisia in the near future unless there are drastic changes in the socio-economic situation. Ben Ali’s resignation as President is one step further towards democracy, but a change in Government does not necessarily lead to socio-economic improvements. Protests may thus erupt again if the demands of the people are not met.⁽³³⁾

There is a potential threat in the domino effect caused by the seemingly successful popular uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt, which may spill over to neighbouring countries in the region. Therefore, the concern is that a domino effect will take place, much like the events taking place in Eastern Europe 1989.⁽³⁴⁾ There are, however, several obstacles facing the three countries as the battle for power begins. The socio-economic challenges, which led to the uprisings, have not been dealt with and will be difficult to deal with. The three Presidents were merely symbols of fragile states, who suffer from decades of mismanagement and rebuilding will depend heavily on the new Governments and the possibilities, if any, which exist. There is a long way ahead and the removal of Tunisia’s President does not necessarily entail a shift in the status quo.

NOTES:

(1) Contact Christine Storø through Consultancy Africa Intelligence’s Conflict & Terrorism Unit (conflict.terrorism@consultancyafrica.com).
(2) Elthahawy, M., ‘Tunisia’s Jasmine Revolution’, The Washington Post, 15 January 2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com.
(3) Ibid.
(4) Bridgland, F. and Pratt, D., ‘Revolution in Tunisia’, Herald Scotland, 16 January 2011, http://www.heraldscotland.com.
(5) Ibid.
(6) Ryan, Y., ‘Change comes to Tunisia, slowly’, Al Jazeera, 8 February 2011, http://english.aljazeera.net.
(7) Elthahawy, M., ‘Tunisia’s Jasmine Revolution’, The Washington Post, 15 January 2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com.
(8) Ibid.
(9) Ibid.
(10) Bridgland, F. and Pratt, D., ‘Revolution in Tunisia’, Herald Scotland, 16 January 2011, http://www.heraldscotland.com.
(11) Ibid.
(12) ‘Mid-East: Will there be a domino effect?’, BBC News Africa, 3 February 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk.
(13) Shahine, A., ‘Tunisia Revolt Threatens Rulers Sharing Ben Ali's Regime Model’, Bloomberg, 17 January 2011, http://www.bloomberg.com.
(14) Ibid.
(15) ‘What now for Tunisia?’, The Islamic Standard, 18 January 2011, http://theislamicstandard.wordpress.com.
(16) Ryan, Y., ‘Change comes to Tunisia, slowly’, Al Jazeera, 8 February 2011, http://english.aljazeera.net.
(17) Ibid.
(18) Ibid.
(19) Ibid.
(20) Ibid.
(21) ‘Mid-East: Will there be a domino effect?’, BBC News Africa, 3 February 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk.
(22) Shahine, A., ‘Tunisia Revolt Threatens Rulers Sharing Ben Ali's Regime Model’, Bloomberg, 17 January 2011, http://www.bloomberg.com.
(23) Ibid.
(24) Ibid.
(25) ‘Hosni Mubarak resigns as President’, Al Jazeera, 11 February 2011, http://english.aljazeera.net.
(26) Leyne, J., ‘Egypt protests: Three killed in “day of revolt”’, BBC News Africa, 26 January 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk.
(27) ‘Mid-East: Will there be a domino effect?’, BBC News Africa, 3 February 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk.
(28) Ibid.
(29) Ibid.
(30) Ibid.
(31) Kienle, E., ‘Egypt without Mubarak, or Mubarak without Mubarak’, Open Democracy, 3 March 2011, http://www.opendemocracy.net.
(32) Ryan, Y., ‘Change comes to Tunisia, slowly’, Al Jazeera, 8 February 2011, http://english.aljazeera.net.
(33) Ibid.
(34) Ibid.

Written by Christine Storø ⁽¹⁾