This year South Africa marks 20 years of democracy, but what will things look like by 2030? And with national elections just around the corner, what role can political leaders and the electorate play in ensuring a prosperous and more equitable society? This week the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) released a forward-looking set of scenarios that map realistic outcomes for the country based on an in-depth study of South Africa’s political and economic prospects. According to the ISS, prosperity is within our grasp, but it’s up to South Africans to decide what kind of country they want.

Using the International Futures forecasting system, a comprehensive analysis was undertaken to quantify and compare some of the costs and benefits of alternative futures. The ISS aims to strengthen policy and practice in the human security field in Africa, and so three scenarios were presented up to 2030, the year that coincides with the timeline of the government’s National Development Plan (NDP).

The results are detailed in the latest ISS Paper, South African Futures 2030: How Bafana Bafana made Mandela Magic written by ISS executive director Jakkie Cilliers. South Africa’s current track (called Bafana Bafana after the national football team) is that of the perennial underachiever, despite its potential for international success. ‘Mandela Magic’ reflects a country with a clear economic and developmental vision, while ‘A Nation Divided’ tracks the fallout of factionalism and populist policies.

Coming on the heels of President Jacob Zuma’s State of the Nation address in parliament, the ISS paper provides a timely and considered analysis of future scenarios for South Africa. Against the backdrop of economic uncertainty and the commotion that typifies pre-election politics, the study has been widely profiled in the media and discussed among decision makers.

Diplomats and South African government officials were briefed in a closed meeting at the ISS in Pretoria, before the findings were released at public launches in Cape Town and Pretoria. The business and academic communities also joined the debate, with lectures delivered at the Universities of Pretoria, Johannesburg and the Gordon Institute of Business Science.

Media coverage was widespread and detailed, and included, among others, articles and interviews in leading newspapers and media outlets such as the Cape Times, Business Day, City Press, Sunday Independent, Mail and Guardian, Beeld, Die Burger, Daily Maverick, Rapport, several 702 Talk Radio shows and news broadcasts, Cape Talk, SAFM, eTV, Africa 360 on eNews Channel Africa, and ANN7.

This project was funded by the Open Society Foundation for South Africa and some of the outreach events by the Hanns Seidel Foundation. The ISS is also grateful for the support of the following core partners: the governments of Norway, Sweden, Australia and Denmark.