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In African Futures Policy Brief Number 2, a report by the Institute for Security Studies, a team of researchers formulate two scenarios about education. Using historic data, the researchers identify the African countries that have made the most dramatic improvements in primary school completion and secondary school enrolment over the last 20 years. The researchers formulate a positive scenario by applying these aggressive, yet plausible, development rates to all countries across the continent. The researchers compare this positive scenario with a base case scenario from the International Futures software. Such a comparison shows that:
If education enrolment and completion rates of all African nations advanced as rapidly as those from the best-practice countries in Africa, then the continent would:
Effectively meet the goal of universal primary education by 2030 and universal basic education by 2035
Achieve 85 per cent upper-secondary enrolment by 2050
Reduce by 2050 the number of malnourished children by 3,5 million, the number of people living on less than US$ 1,25 per day by 60 million and the chance of state failure by nearly 8 per cent
Add US$ 2,5 trillion to Africa’s gross domestic product (GDP) through 2050, which is more than five times the cumulative increase in overall spending on education through that year.
Such improvements would require an increase in educational spending from 4% of Africa’s GDP to 4,8%.
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