The latest edition of the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ Armed Conflict Survey captures a global landscape characterised by increasing intensity and intractability of conflicts driven by rising third-party state interventions and leverage and deepening geopolitical fragmentation.

These trends are reinforced by the growing clout of non-state armed groups (NSAGs) as conflict parties and political actors against a backdrop of declining state legitimacy and reach. According to ICRC estimates, 200 million people live in areas controlled to different degrees by these actors across the world. NSAGs are also becoming more globalised amid international support from third party states and other NSAGs, and increasingly regional and/or global presence, networks, and operations.

These factors have led to a rise in the intensity of global armed conflicts, making conflicts such as the one in Ukraine more protracted in nature. The intractability trend is mirrored in an increasing length of conflicts, presently estimated at around 30 years on average as compared to under 20 in early 1990s.

Report by International Institute for Strategic Studies