In the first edition of The African Futures Brief, a team of researchers build three scenarios to explore possibilities for the delivery of water and sanitation. First, using historic data, the researchers identify the African countries that have made the most dramatic improvements in access to water and sanitation over the last 20 years. The researchers formulate a positive scenario by applying these aggressive, yet plausible, development rates to all countries across the continent. Secondly, through an examination of low performing countries, the researchers construct a stagnant scenario for water and sanitation. Thirdly, the team makes use of a base case, a business-as-usual scenario, derived from the International Futures software.

Using these three possible futures, the researchers are able to demonstrate the impact that water and sanitation delivery has on infant mortality, communicable disease, GDP and state fragility. In addition the African Futures Brief No. 1 also produces a preliminary cost-benefit analysis to show when the initial investment will be recouped in terms of economic productivity.

This policy brief is written by Mark Eshbaugh, Eric Firnhaber, Patrick McLennan, Jonathan D. Moyer and Erin Torkelson of the Institute for Security Studies