President Zuma’s second set of major changes in the national Executive in two years has surprised many, although public pressure and reports by the Public Protector left him with few other options. It would be incorrect to interpret these cabinet changes as essentially about two problematic Ministers, Sicelo Shiceka and Gwen Mahlangu-Nkabinde. It is also about re-organisation of at least two Ministries and Departments: Communications and Public Works.

Significant changes implemented across seven Departments

During the cabinet changes in 2010, the Minister of Communications, Siphiwe Nyanda, was ousted and replaced by Roy Padayachie, Deputy Minister Dina Pule was moved to Performance Monitoring and Evaluation and Obed Bapela became the new Deputy. In the latest change, Pule is returned to Communications as Minister, which means that she is relatively familiar with the portfolio. Her new Deputy, Thembisa Stella Ndabeni is, however, a complete newcomer, being an ordinary member of the parliamentary portfolio committee on Communications but not its chairperson. She has been aligned to the ANC Youth League. Padayachie was ostensibly a relatively successful Minister, but Pres. Zuma appears to be dissatisfied with the leadership in that portfolio. The SABC’s unending problems might be one explanation for it.

Public Works is another traumatised department. Under Thoko Didiza’s leadership, it functioned relatively well. After her resignation in 2008 as part of the Mbeki exodus, she was succeeded by Geoff Doidge. As the main land-owner of the state and manager of the public sector’s property portfolio, it controls huge construction and building contracts. It also regulates all construction and civil engineering standards. Doidge refused to play a patronage role and to approve lease contracts for police buildings. In the 2010 changes, he was replaced by Gwen Mahlangu-Nkabinde.

The controversy about lease contracts for police buildings exposed by the Public Protector, took its toll on both the Minister, the Director General who was placed on special leave and Police Commissioner Bheki Cele. The ineffective Deputy Minister Henrietta Bogopane-Zulu, who is a disabled, semi-blind person, was also removed. The Department’s leadership is now left in the hands of a very young Acting Director General, Mandla Mabuza, a graduate from Uppsala University in Sweden, a former SASCO President and a confidante of Deputy President Motlanthe.

The new Minister of Public Works, Thulas Nxesi, is the former Deputy Minister of Rural Development and Land Reform – a portfolio not really suitable for his background. He is a former General Secretary of the SA Democratic Teachers’ Union and has therefore a strong association with the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU). He is also the former chairperson of the Portfolio Committee on Foreign Affairs and developed a reputation as a fierce oversight leader. As a teacher and unionist, he does not have any experience of Public Works but his commitment to his duties in general might bring him success.

The Minister of Cooperative Government and Traditional Affairs (COGTA) is another focus point in these changes. It does not, however, affect the entire Ministry, because the Deputy, Yunus Carrim, is retained in his post. Though the Department’s performance is under pressure, specifically for the lack of proper government in the municipal sphere, and for lack of effective coordination between the three spheres of government, the Minister’s personal conduct and absence from work since the beginning of 2011, disqualified him in the public eye. The Public Protector’s latest report was the catalyst for his demise.

The appointment of Richard Baloyi as Shiceka’s successor at COGTA is not without merit. As Minister of Public Service and Administration, he was responsible for the national and provincial services of government and therefore developed a good understanding of how government functions. Local government, as part of the COGTA jurisdiction, will however probably be the most challenging new task for him. The fact that Baloyi was given this problematic portfolio can be understood as a confirmation of Pres. Zuma’s confidence in him and should not be understood as a lateral movement away from Public Service and Administration.

Another of the seven Departments affected by the changes is Rural Development and Land Reform. Though one of the five key electoral priorities for the ANC, the Department’s performance is below par. It has become the focus of attention of the public debate about expropriation of land as part of land reform. The recently announced Green Paper on Land Reform was a prime example of a missed opportunity to provide new direction in policy. Its Deputy Minister (Nxesi) has now been promoted to Minister of Public Works, where the primary responsibility for expropriation is located.

Nxesi’s successor, Lechesa Tsenoli, is a newcomer to government. He has been the chairperson of the Portfolio Committee on COGTA, is a former MEC for Housing and Local Government in the Free State and is the former President of the SA National Civics Organisation (SANCO). His lack of involvement in agricultural or land issues means that it is unlikely that his presence will provide a new impetus to the land reform programme.

A brief assessment of the recent changes

The latest changes in government provide an indication of how Pres. Zuma assesses his team. Firstly, he did not touch the ministers who might be contenders in the leadership struggle at the next National Conference, and therefore it does not appear to be a form of power play or involvement in the ANC’s internal politics. Tokyo Sexwale, Lindiwe Sisulu, Fikile Mbalula and Paul Mashatile were therefore not affected by the changes. Ministers in sensitive portfolios like Susan Shabangu (Mineral Resources), Nathi Mthethwa (Police) or Siyabonga Cwele (State Security) were also not affected. Shabangu’s pronouncement against nationalisation of the mines and Cwele’s actions against his top officials, his wife’s involvement in drug trafficking and his handling of the Protection of Information Bill must therefore carry Pres. Zuma’s approval.

Also notable is the fact that none of the departments in the economic cluster were affected by the changes. Finance, Trade and Industry, Economic Development, Mineral Resources, Tourism and Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries were not changed despite the crisis in the employment situation. The global economic crisis is ostensibly the justification for their lack of performance and both Pres. Mbeki and Zuma are exceptionally sensitive to prevent negative international perceptions regarding economic policy continuity.

Another indicator of Pres. Zuma’s actions is that he seems not to be overly concerned about a possible negative impact within the ANC. Most of the seven ministers he dismissed in 2010 were members of the National Executive Committee (NEC). Shiceka is also an NEC member but not Mahlangu-Nkabinde. At the same time, all the new appointments are also not NEC members: Nxesi, Ndabeni and Tsenoli. It might be possible to conclude that the NEC is not Pres. Zuma’s power base from which he recruits his government members. The National Working Committee is, however, very significant for him as a constituency.

Finally, it is said that Pres. Zuma primarily relies on KwaZulu-Natal as his support base in the ANC. It is however informative that most of the newcomers and changes are not from KZN: Dina Pule is from Mpumalanga, Nxesi and Ndabeni are from the Eastern Cape, Tsenoli is from the Free State and Baloyi is from Limpopo.

Possible influencing factors

Why did Pres. Zuma take these steps? The first possible answer is that he was forced into it by the Public Protector’s reports. But why did he not limit it to actions against Shiceka and Mahlangu-Nkabinde only? Some speculate that it is to strengthen his hand in the ANC’s National Conference. However, neither Baloyi, Nxesi nor Tsenoli are key players in the ANC – only Dina Pule is a NWC member. They would hardly make a difference in the internal balance of power.

Are the cabinet changes related to the Cele suspension, impending release of the Donen report or the commission of inquiry into the arms deal? Ostensibly, they have corruption as a common denominator. Pres. Zuma has been criticised by COSATU and the ANC Youth League about corruption and it is also articulated as a grievance in many local township demonstrations. For him to be seen as an assertive leader and to rebuild his credibility amongst ANC supporters, firm steps against corruption are an unavoidable prerequisite.

Related to an uncompromised stand on corruption, is the popular demand for improvement in the quality of government and services. Arguably, it is the justification for involving a combination of COGTA, Public Service and Administration, and Performance Monitoring and Evaluation in the cabinet changes.

Public Works and Rural Development and Land Reform are also linked in the sense that Public Works is responsible for property expropriation on behalf of the state and must also take responsibility for the protracted delay in establishing a new Expropriation Act. It exacerbates the public debate on land reform and the possible alternatives for the ‘willing buyer, willing seller’ market principle.
At least four priorities addressed

The latest cabinet changes therefore address at least four priorities:

* Public communications;
* Land reform;
* Public services; and
* Corruption.

These are not necessarily designed as deft political footwork by Pres. Zuma to secure a second term. Only if it is understood by ANC supporters as examples of uncompromising and principled leadership, will it become part of the ANC’s Conference politics. Otherwise it was a case of public outrage, impending court cases that will force the Government to disclose information and institute investigations and the oversight power of constitutional bodies that forced his hand into the changes.

NOTES:

Written by Prof Dirk Kotzé

Contact him through Consultancy Africa Intelligence’s Africa Watch Unit (africawatch@consultancyafrica.com).