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Slowdown more pronounced than anticipated, OECD cautions

9th September 2010

By: Terence Creamer
Creamer Media Editor

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The slowdown in the pace of the global economic recovery is "more pronounced" than previously anticipated, the latest Interim Economic Assessment released by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) states. However, chief economist Pier Carlo Padoan was still of the view that another downturn was "unlikely", despite the loss of momentum and increased uncertainty.


The report, which was released in Paris, France, on Thursday, indicated that annualised growth in G7 countries could be 1,5% in the second half of 2010, which was lower than the OECD's May estimate of 1,75%.

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Based on its reading of the most recent data, the OECD expected the US economy to grow by 2% in the third quarter, but for the expansion to moderate to 1,2% in the fourth quarter of 2010. In the second quarter, the US economy grew by 1,6%.


Japanese growth was forecast at 0,7% in the fourth quarter after 0,6% in the third, while the combined gross domestic product of the three largest countries in the Eurozone was projected to grow at 0,4% in the third quarter, rising to 0,6% in the fourth quarter.

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While Padoan described the threat of another downturn as small, he acknowledged that it was not yet certain whether the loss of momentum was temporary, or whether it signalled greater underlying weaknesses in private spending at a time when policy support was being removed.


"If the ongoing slowdown is temporary, the appropriate policy response would be to postpone the withdrawal of monetary support for a few months, while maintaining planned budget consolidation to address unsustainable fiscal positions," he argued.


"On the other hand, if the slowdown reflects longer‐lasting forces bearing down on activity, additional monetary stimulus might be warranted in the form of quantitative easing and commitment to close‐to‐zero policy interest rates for a long period. Where public finances permit, planned fiscal consolidation could be delayed."

 

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