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Size of rate cut won't affect Rand

5th February 2009

By: Sapa

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The size of the eagerly awaited rate cut by the Reserve Bank will make no difference to the local currency, RMB currency strategists said on Thursday.

"Will the rand care one way or another? With the rest of the world going to zero interest rates, it will make little difference to speculators if South African rates are at 10.5 percent or 11 percent," said RMB's John Cairns in a statement.

Cairns said the importance rather was what signal Thursday's decision sent.

"Cut 100 basis points and the market's expectation of aggressive cuts all the way down to close to seven percent looks justified. Cut less and the view will have to be reassessed."

Cairns said the rand needed interest rates that were consistent with a contraction in the current account deficit -- which, after the trade data revision, wasn't quite as bad as economists had thought.

"The pace of cutting then isn't as important as how far rates fall. But the one signals the other -- and my nervousness about the rand will grow with a 100 basis cut," he said.

For Thursday, the risks from the meeting were biased towards rand strength.

A 50 basis points cut would disappoint and push the entire rates curve up. Even if the bank's Monetary Policy Committee cut by 100 basis points, Cairns said he couldn't see the Reserve Bank signalling an even more aggressive cutting cycle than the market was already discounting.

"The rand, however, is already looking very strong in a world where risky assets are under pressure," Cairns said.

At 8.45 am, the rand was trading at 10.04 to the US dollar.

 

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