Following the deferral of Zimbabwe from the agenda at an extraordinary regional meeting in Windhoek, Namibia in May 2011, SADC members tackled Zimbabwe on the margins of the Second Tripartite Summit of the Common Market for East and Southern Africa (COMESA), East African Community (EAC) and the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) held in Johannesburg this past weekend.

The discussion, which was initially scheduled to take place on Saturday, was postponed to early evening on Sunday as many dignitaries attended the funeral of the late South African struggle icon Albertina Sisulu on 11 June 2011.

In the run-up to the meeting, ZANU-PF and the MDC-T lobbied intensively around the extent to which the outcomes of the Livingstone Summit, in April 2011 would be endorsed by the SADC member states. The meeting of the SADC Troika of the Organ on Politics, Defence and Security in Livingstone was the last time Zimbabwe was discussed. The communiqué of the Livingstone Summit made explicit mention of the “polarization of the political environment”, calling, among others, for an end to the violence and harassment and the development of a roadmap for elections. Many perceived this as the strongest rebuke to Zimbabwe’s main political principals by the regional body.

Expectations were high that SADC would endorse the Troika’s decisions at the Johannesburg meeting.

From remarks made by one of the SADC-appointed facilitators, Ambassador Lindiwe Zulu, at a meeting of the Southern African Liaison Office held a few weeks ago in Pretoria, it appears that the South African team were pushing for a resolution of the now well-known outstanding issues. At the time, Ambassador Zulu had noted that all parties at the negotiating table were in agreement that elections would not be held in 2011. However, one also recalls the almost immediate reaction by ZANU-PF spokesperson refuting such statements. There thus continues to be disagreement both between and within parties.

The latest communiqué reveals an unwillingness by SADC member states to take a firmer position on the Livingstone communiqué as the Troika’s decisions were merely “noted”, and not “endorsed” as some had hoped. This position could very well be construed as yet another victory for Robert Mugabe’s ZANU-PF, which had lobbied extensively for Livingstone decisions not to be adopted. While MDC-T representatives might also claim that the latest meeting had ended in their favour, it is a difficult argument to make given that the communiqué nowhere calls for an end to violence, arrests and intimidation, nor does it mention explicit timelines for the implementation of the GPA, but essentially repeats the sentiments of previous communiqués.

A three-member team of representatives from the SADC Troika have yet to be appointed to assist the twelve-member Joint Monitoring and Implementation Committee (JOMIC), which was up to ensure “full and proper implementation of the letter and spirit” of the Global Political Agreement (GPA) signed on 15 September 2008. Their activities are expected to feed into a report on progress made at the next annual SADC Summit that will be hosted in August in Luanda by the incoming Chair of the Organ, Angola.

It remains difficult to forecast what the outcome of that report will be and whether they will indeed present a road map outlining the conditions necessary to hold the next free and fair election, but what can be said at this point is that if such a document or any other negotiated agreement between the parties continues to include issues that are not within the control of its signatories, then one can hardly expect any significant progress in terms of fully implementing the GPA. The issue of sanctions comes to mind here.

The road map might prove to be a litmus test for a break from the past. ZANU-PF has on numerous occasions argued for an election in 2011, and there are concerns that if one were to be unilaterally declared there is little SADC could do to veto such a decision. An early election is arguably sought amidst growing concerns over President Robert Mugabe’s health and the lack of an obvious successor. However, nothwithstanding these challenges, there also remains the ever-present question as to whether SADC has any leverage to enforce decisions that are made by the Organ. While it may have enforcement mechanisms – such as sanctioning, and even expelling a member – it is unlikely to take such an approach, particularly if one recalls the lack of such measures being put in place to ensure compliance with past decisions issued by the Organ.

Regardless of the outcomes of this weekend’s meeting, there is little doubt that any transition in Zimbabwe is likely to be lengthy, and there can be no quick-fix solution given the continued fragmentation and lack of consensus that continues to characterise the relationship between the partners in the Interim Government.

Written by Judy Smith-Hoehn, Senior Researcher, African Conflict Prevention Programme, ISS Pretoria Office