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The results of the monthly SACCI Trade Conditions Survey for December 2010 were released today at the SACCI offices in Rosebank, Johannesburg.
Current trade conditions, as reflected by the Trade Activity Index (TAI), dipped into negative territory in December 2010 to 44 from 57 in November 2010. Although the dip in December is a normal seasonal occurrence, the TAI declined by 13 points between November and December 2010 compared to 9 points in 2009. The December 2010 TAI was nevertheless still 2 points above the December 2009 TAI. The improvement in trade conditions established since September 2010 is likely to continue following the resumption of trade activities post the festive season break.
The improved levels of the sales volumes index since September 2010 was severely disrupted in December 2010 with the index dipping by 16 points to 47. As intermediary business trade typically slows down in December, the decline does not reflect a permanent setback. In 2009 sales volumes slowed down by 14 points. The other components of the TAI also revealed comparable declines.
The TEI (Trade Expectations Index) continued to improve and measured 62 in December 2010 after measuring 58 in November 2010 and 61 on average during the previous five months. Expectations for all the components of the trade survey improved on the November figures.
The price indices for expected and current sales and input prices remained virtually unchanged and therefore did not alter the inflationary outlook of subdued price changes. The input price expectations index that rose by 4 points in November and a further one point in December 2010, signals potential inflationary pressures around the middle of 2011.
The index on employment conditions in the trade environment contracted to 44 from 48 in November 2010 and remains in negative territory. The employment prospects index registered 52, moving into positive territory in December 2010, after being in negative territory since September 2010.
Released by the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry – 18 January 2011.