South African is in a state of "hysterical pessimism", independent political analyst Aubrey Matshiqi said on Thursday.

This "hysterical pessimism" had arisen after controversial African National Congress Youth League (ANCYL) leader Julius Malema had sung a song about "shooting the farmer" and after Afrikaner Weerstandsbeweging (AWB) leader Eugene Terre'Blanche was killed on his Ventersdorp farm, Matshiqi said.

He was addressing a conference hosted by the Bureau of Economic Research (BER) of the University of Stellenbosch held in Sandton, Johannesburg.

Matshiqi said that the state of mind of South Africans "lowers our collective IQ and compromises our ability to reason".

Even seemingly sensible people had been gripped by the pessimism.

"At such moments it is better for us to pause and reflect. Let's strike while the iron is cold, not hot."

He said that the lesson of the past few weeks had been that reconciliation had been dealt a setback.

"But this doesn't mean that there is no reconciliation. It still exists."

Matshiqi said that the ruling ANC had begun to fracture.

"To understand this, we must look back to the Polokwane conference when 40% of the delegates voted for [then President Thabo] Mbeki and 60% of the delegates voted for [President Jacob] Zuma."

Matshiqi said that part of the 40% were now members of the Congress of the People while others remained in the ANC.

Of the 60% who voted for Zuma, not all wanted to see him as head of state, however, most wanted to see the back of Mbeki.

"Mbeki was the glue keeping the Zuma coalition together but the fracturing nevertheless began and many who were part of the Zuma coalition now found themselves on opposite sides."

Matshiqi said that after the April 2009 elections, both the South Africa Communist Party (SACP) and the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) were excited and bullish that the ANC would shift to the left.

"And some on the left said it was not the ANC but the alliance that should be the strategic centre and that the alliance should form government policy," he said referring to the alliance between the ANC, SACP and Cosatu.

This, Matshiqi added, led to tensions.

He said that he had put it to members of the ANC that the centre was not holding.

"They said 'no, for a centre to not hold it has to exist but the centre isn't there' and that is the difficulty facing the ANC."

Matshiqi said that the lack of a centre surfaced recently when the ANC had to decide whether the party should take action against Malema.

"What the ANC said on Tuesday was that the ruling party had not decided to suspend the disciplinary process against Malema but that the leadership of the ANC would decide whether or not to proceed against him."

Matshiqi said that on the weekend, Malema had told a gathering that some people in power had forgotten who had helped them get there.

"In Zulu we say 'the kingmaker does not rule with the king' - and this is what Malema is trying to do - it doesn't matter whether he is correct or not."

Matshiqi said that the question arose as to who would benefit from the fracture in the ANC. "The lack of decision by the ANC indicates that it is Malema who is benefiting."

But, asked Matshiqi, was Malema damaging the image of the ruling party?

"Yes but Malema isn't causing damage where it matters most - for damage to be significant it must extend to the upper echelons and the support base of the party."

However, he said that the fact that the ANC could not impose a disciplinary code on its members showed how fractious it had become.

"And Malema has become a vehicle through which people transmit their prejudices."

He said that Malema would have influence in the leadership battle soon to face the ANC given that some believed Zuma should have a second term in office.

"What 2012 will be all about is whether Zuma survives a leadership battle," he said.