The failure by the United Nations and Kinshasa to neutralise thousands of Rwandan Hutu rebels in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is widely regarded as a key obstacle to sustainable peace in the former Zaire.

Neighbouring Rwanda twice invaded DRC, in 1996 and 1998, on the grounds that these rebels, who are blamed for much of the killing in Rwanda's 1994 genocide, posed a threat to the Tutsi-led government in Kigali.

The last invasion prompted a devastating five-year conflict that sucked in troops from more than half a dozen African countries and left some 2,5-million people dead, either directly through conflict or as a result of hunger and disease.

Rwandan President Paul Kagame has made it quite clear that he would redeploy in eastern DRC if the Hutu fighters, collectively known as the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), were not dealt with.

Part of the mandate of the UN mission in DRC, Monuc, is to organise the voluntary disarmament, demobilisation, repatriation, rehabilitation and reintegration of the FDLR, with Kinshasa's help.

In a deal struck in Pretoria in 2002, Kinshasa pledged to stop supporting the FDLR and assist in this process, in return for Rwanda's military withdrawal from DRC, which took place later that year.

Since then, little more than 3 000 of the estimated 10 000 to 20 000 FDLR fighters have willingly given up their fight and returned to Rwanda.

Last week, in the wake of clashes between rival army factions in east DRC that prompted fears of a new war, Kagame and DRC President Joseph Kabila met in Nigeria and recommitted themselves to the Pretoria accord.

But several DRC-watchers dismissed the meeting for its lack of concrete new initiatives.

"A hard core of the FDLR is still active in the east, and it will be difficult to neutralise it on a voluntary basis," explained one diplomat in Kinshasa, who asked not to be named.

Rwanda's military occupation of eastern DRC between 1998 and 2002 also failed to solve the problem by force, he added.

Last week a Rwandan government official, Joseph Mutaboba, said many Rwandan Hutu fighters were still in the ranks of the DRC army.

Rwanda insists it is the responsibility of Monuc and the DRC army to deal with the FDLR and that this should be done by force.

But as Le Phare, a Kinshasa daily newspaper pointed out, "The Congolese still don't have a national army that is up to the task."

In an editorial, the paper regretted that Kabila had made another promise he was unable to keep.

"It is clear that the onus is now on DRC to prove that the Rwandan fighters have been neutralised. Otherwise, Kigali will be able to justify another adventure in our country," it added.

Kigali's detractors suggest that eastern DRC's mineral and agricultural riches would be the real reason for any re-occupation.

Kagame's refusal to even consider negotiating with the FDLR only serves to prolong the problem, according to the International Crisis Group (ICG), an influential think tank.

Back in May 2003, ICG published a report on the FDLR, noting its recent alliances with exiled political groups and stressing that the crisis in eastern DRC was inextricably linked to Rwanda's efforts to "eliminate virtually all internal political opposition" ahead of elections.

Kagame and his party won massive victories in legislative and presidential polls last year, after most opposition candidates were effectively locked out of the running. – Sapa-AFP.