Two long-awaited and potentially landscape altering energy- related documents were released last week.

First, the Department of Energy (DoE) released the Draft Integrated Energy Planning Report for public consultation and announced that it will host stakeholder consultations in various parts of the country during the months of September, October and November.

The 160-page document presents scenarios for various energy policy options, but does not yet provide recommendations to guide future energy infrastructure investments and policy. These, the department says, will be made only once the consultation process has been finalised.

The draft report, which covers a time horizon from 2010 to 2050, is premised on a more than doubling in the total energy demand over the period, increasing at an average yearly rate of 2%.

The transport sector, comprising 34% of total energy demand in 2010, is expected to continue to impose the most significant total energy demand. But demand for electricity is also expected to continue to rise as houses become electrified and as the tertiary sector continues to expand. In the industrial sector, the increase in electricity demand is largely expected from the manufacturing sector, with the iron and steel and mining subsectors expected to show little increase from current levels.

The final plan is expected to be published 12 months from the start of stakeholder consultations.

The second important document released is the South African Coal Roadmap, the publication of which has been somewhat delayed.

This document raises a number of significant issues that will affect the country’s future energy security, particularly electricity security, given the dominance of coal in South Africa’s generation mix. Eskom has confirmed that it still needs to secure, contract and build the mines to provide about two-billion tons of the estimated four-billion tons it will require to supply its current power-station fleet to the end of their planned operating lives.

The roadmap document argues that, while some of the incremental demand for existing power stations can be met by extending existing mines into adjoining but poorer-quality resources, the majority will need to be met from new mines. It also warns that, although most of this new coal is required before 2040, shortfalls at some power stations are anticipated as early as 2015 – well ahead of the so-called ‘coal supply cliff’ of 2018.

Also highlighted is the need for appropriate infrastructure planning to open up the Waterberg coalfields, together with a requirement to identify those resources that will be critical to Eskom’s future supply amid escalating competition between Eskom and exporters.

The good news is that the processes are now properly under way to identify the risks and improve planning. The not so good news is that South Africa has again left it quite late before moving to address a number of pressing energy economy problems.