Africa was one of the global focus points for a third wave of democratisation in the 1990s. Despite the removal of many dictators, however, the continent continues to be plagued by political instability and insecurity as, since the turn of the century, its people have witnessed numerous coups and even more attempted coups. Africa’s largest island nation, Madagascar, witnessed this force of power in 2009 when the then mayor of Antananarivo and opposition leader, Andry Rajoelina, overthrew the elected president, Marc Ravalomanana, to become the continent’s youngest head of state.

Rajoelina’s coup contributed to the international isolation of Madagascar as well as local tension as supporters of each leader continued to vie for power. For two years, the country remained a pariah state until its leaders adopted the Southern African Development Community’s (SADC) Roadmap in September 2011 to end the political stalemate. The global community has subsequently welcomed Madagascar back into its ranks. Not only has the European Union (EU) resumed multilateral relations with the state but the African Union (AU) has also withdrawn all sanctions.

Although the Roadmap has been an important step toward achieving peace and stability in the country, this article will argue that Madagascar is not out of the woods as significant hurdles remain in the run-up to the elections scheduled for May 2012. Before turning to identify these threats, a brief reflection on the 2009 coup and the SADC Roadmap is outlined.

From rebellion to Roadmap

Ravalomanana, elected president in both 2001 and 2006, was once considered a hero of Madagascar given his rags to riches history. As the story goes, the former president sold yoghurt off the back of his bicycle to steadily build a dairy business empire unrivalled in the country.⁽²⁾ Where his humble background once contributed to his popularity among the people, his opponents soon began to call the leader a dictator who was more interested in promoting his own business interests – which had broadened to include construction, radio, television and energy – than addressing pressing developmental concerns.⁽³⁾ One such opponent was the mayor of the capital city: Rajoelina of the Tanora Malagasy Vonona (TGV) party.

In January 2009, Rajoelina, a former disk jockey and entertainment producer, led a series of protests against Ravalomanana and his Government. As state authorities responded with excessive force, Rajoelina soon became known the ‘People’s Champion’ and secured support from various divisions within the army.⁽⁴⁾ By March 2009, Rajoelina and his TGV party, otherwise known as the Young Malagasy Determined, ousted the president, boldly declaring “We can now say we are free,”⁽⁵⁾ whilst Ravalomanana went into political exile.

The international community did not approve. Madagascar was not only expelled from both the AU and SADC but these regional bodies also slapped sanctions on Rajoelina and more than 100 of his supporters.⁽⁶⁾ The EU further moved to freeze hundreds of millions of dollars in vital donor money.⁽⁷⁾ In addition to bearing the brunt of international isolation, Madagascar witnessed further instability back home as many opponents staged a series of attempted coups following Rajoelina’s rise to power.⁽⁸⁾

After two years of a political deadlock, Rajoelina finally bowed to international pressure in September 2011 when his imposed Government and various opposition parties agreed to a SADC-brokered Roadmap. This document stipulated, among other things, that the TGV would permit the appointment of an opposition leader as Prime Minister whilst the country prepared itself to host new elections in May 2012. Furthermore, the return of all political exiles coupled with the implementation of an amnesty law was to be guaranteed.⁽⁹⁾

Threats to stability

Although this Roadmap remains the first and most important step toward restoring democracy to the people of Madagascar, various threats to future peace and stability in addition to the upcoming elections have emerged.

Firstly, the TGV has already contravened one of the primary conditions of the agreement. Where the Roadmap called for the appointment of the interim Prime Minister to stem from an opposition party, the Government awarded this position to Omer Beriziky, a well-known high-ranking member of the TGV. Opponents have subsequently rejected this appointment thereby discrediting the entire mandate of the interim Government.⁽¹⁰⁾

Secondly, and most controversially, Rajoelina denied Ravalomanana’s right to return to Madagascar, as per the Roadmap, on 21 January 2012 when the former president’s plane was ordered not to land in the capital city and to turn around mid-flight.⁽¹¹⁾ Although the Government has denied these allegations, such speculation has only contributed to growing dissent in the country, as Rajoelina’s commitment to the agreement remains questionable. Moreover, this latest scandal has inspired Ravalomanana’s supporters to take to the streets in protest whilst his Tiako I Madagasikara party has suspended all collaboration with the country’s Government.⁽¹²⁾

As Rajoelina and his TGV party continue to act unilaterally, the authority of the Roadmap has been undermined which threatens to derail all plans to host elections in May 2012. Whether the people of Madagascar can ride out this storm remains to be seen, however, as the return of political violence and international isolation has re-emerged as a possible outcome.

Conclusion

Madagascar’s immediate future remains alarmingly uncertain. Where it seemed that Rajoelina and his TGV party had finally buckled under international pressure and conformed to democratic principles, their subsequent conduct has only suggested otherwise. Madagascar’s current situation therefore threatens to reverse any progress the country may have achieved in recent months. In this regard, it is imperative that local and international authorities remain committed and on standby to help guide this island nation out of the woods and towards democracy.

Notes

(1) Contact Keri Leicher through Consultancy Africa Intelligence's Africa Watch Unit (africa.watch@consultancyafrica.com).
(2) Bearak, B., ‘Rumours of conspiracy rattle Madagascar’, The New York Times, 13 May 2010, www.nytimes.com.
(3) Ibid.
(4) Bearak, B., ‘Madagascar’s president quits after weeks of chaos’, New York Times, 17 March 2009, www.nytimes.com.
(5) Ibid.
(6) ‘Madagascar leaders sign Roadmap to elections’, The Mail and Guardian, 17 September 2011, www.mg.co.za.
(7) Ibid.
(8) Campbell, J., ‘The return of the African coup’, Council on Foreign Relations, 22 June 2010, www.cfr.org.
(9) ‘Madagascar Government resigns in line with Roadmap’, Reuters Africa, 18 October 2011, www.af.reuters.com.
(10) ‘Madagascar names new Government, opposition rejects’, Reuters Africa, 21 November 2011, www.af.reuters.com.
(11) Fabricios, P., ‘Madagascar turns away Ravalomanana’, IOL News, 22 January 2012, www.iol.co.za.
(12) Stoddard, E. and Iloniaina, A., ‘Madagascar’s Ravalomanana back in South Africa’, 21 January 2012, www.af.reuters.com.

Written by Keri Leicher ⁽¹⁾