Several weeks ago we warned that for the first time since 1994, electoral violence, unfair practices and election fraud threaten the integrity  of South Africa’s fifth democratic elections. With only a week to go before the elections, some of the latest developments around the upcoming elections confirm there continues to be much reason for concern.

In tandem with the current election-driven political developments, the growing convergence between political and labour developments of the last two years have produced more and more tensions that are now reaching a potentially explosive flashpoint.

President Jacob Zuma himself has in the last ten days repeatedly called for peaceful elections. Ironically, until last week it was his own party, the ruling African National Congress (ANC), which was associated with much if not most of the violence and intimidation, as well as unfair practices that have marked the election campaign.

Attacks now aimed at ANC

Until last week ANC members attacked or threatened members and facilities of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), the Democratic Alliance (DA) and AgangSA. But since Thursday attacks have been directed by striking mineworkers – associated with a new, emerging labour-political left wing – against the ANC.

Potentially the most likely flashpoints are North West province (especially in the Marikana area), parts of the East Rand in Gauteng, some parts of Soweto, the Polekwane region of Limpopo, parts of the Eastern Cape (mostly where migrant mineworkers live), and the usual suspect, KwaZulu-Natal, where decades of pre-election political violence has become the norm already. But there may well be more areas at risk.

President Zuma’s repeated appeals for calm seem to suggest that he may be in possession of intelligence that may suggest a high likelihood of election violence.

Political violence shifts to platinum belt

In the last week violence has escalated in the North West province between the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (AMCU) and the ANC. When the latest round of wage talks in the platinum strike collapsed last Thursday it triggered renewed anger and militancy among the striking mineworkers of the platinum belt. At the same time the “invasion” of ANC election campaigners in the area was like a red rag to a bull…violence was inevitable. On election day the situation could well repeat itself.

The first trouble came immediately after the news broke on Thursday that the latest wage talks had collapsed, when an ANC office in the Marikana areas was burnt down.

From Friday through to Sunday ANC canvassers were attacked in parts of the North West platinum belt by stone-throwing groups, ANC councillors’ and members’ houses were set alight, an ANC councillor was thrown out of the area, ANC posters were torn down, and Sports Minister Fikile Mbalula had to be evacuated from the area in a police armoured vehicle.

Ironically when Mbalula was still viewed as a close ally of the then ANC Youth League leader Julius Malema he would have been welcome in the Marikana squatter settlements. Now it is only Malema – since kicked out of the ANC – who is welcome there and where his new party, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), has strong support.

Township protests and shack-dwellers

Similar developments occurred in recent months when Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) workers and ANC election campaigners and facilities were targeted by protesting residents of townships and informal settlements. In these areas  anger is high over issues ranging from corruption, poor service delivery, lack of housing, high unemployment, unpopular ANC councillors, and more.

These high-tension political dynamics are now also gaining traction within the potentially powerful, but hitherto apolitical shack dwellers movement, Abahlali baseMjondolo. For the first time the movement is offering its backing to a political party as long as it is not the ANC (because of the 20-year lack of housing for its constituency). Last week it considered representations for its backing from various political parties – both left-wing and centre - but not from the ANC.

But in Cape Town ANC members involved in the human faeces-strewing campaign are working closely with another squatter movement, Ses’khona People’s Rights Movement, and other groups that a few months ago staged violent and destructive protests in the city centre.

Unfair practices

As for unfair practices, these continue with the ANC unashamedly abusing state resources and facilities such as the SABC, government advertising, police vehicles, handing out of food parcels and other offerings to voters paid for with public money, and more.

To this list can be added the ANC’s initial blocking of the Public Protector’s report on Nkandla and now its undermining and shutting down of the parliamentary ad hoc committee dealing with the report. These actions show the ANC to have become increasingly arrogant, intolerant and blurring the line between party and state while not being sufficiently supportive of democratic practices and institutions.

Bigger picture involves emerging left forces

The labour and social volatility in the platinum mining area should also be seen within the bigger picture of the labour-political developments left of the ANC that are giving rise to what is likely to become the biggest challenge to the ANC’s hold on power in future.

All inter-linked in the dynamics of these developments in some or other way are AMCU, its ANC-aligned rival the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM), the ANC Alliance, the political battles in the Congress of SA Trade Unions (COSATU), the imminent breakaway from COSATU by the National Union of Metalworkers of SA (NUMSA), the activities of the Workers and Socialist Party (WASP) and allied organisations, various squatter and informal workers’ groups and committees, the EFF, and the new workers’ socialist front and political party that NUMSA hopes to establish. (See our previous reports for more details.)

Marikana with its tragic connotations and its popularised profile of workers-fighting-capital has become the rallying point for much of this. Government is resented here, the mining companies are seen as its capitalist face, and the NUM, COSATU and ANC as its labour-political face.

Platinum strike

Meanwhile, while AMCU still has to formally reject the latest wage offer made by the strike-affected platinum producers Lonmin, Anglo American Platinum and Impala Platinum (expected this week), workers have already held impromptu mass meetings rejecting the offer and indicating that the costly platinum strike would continue indefinitely. AMCU leaders also rejected the offer at these meetings.

The union and its members were angered by the fact that the mining companies offered to meet the demand of a monthly cash remuneration of R12,500 within five years but which would include all allowances as part of this sum, therefore effectively falling away.

Unless the striking workers become involved in serious flare-ups of intimidation, violence or protests on or around election day necessitating intervention by police, we anticipate the status quo to remain in respect of the platinum strike until after the elections at which point the government may intervene more directly for the first time.

Monitoring the election

While unfair practices, intimidation and violence have already come into play in this general election, and more could possibly follow, issues such as election fraud and other irregularities will only be assessable on and after election day next week. Foreign observer teams from organisations such as the African Union, Commonwealth and Southern African Development Community are already in South Africa to help assure free and fair elections.

While irregularities with, for instance, ballot papers and possible intimidation or irregular practices by election officials are always a possibility, to date South Africa’s vote-counting processes have been free of any tampering due to there being in place a system of checks and balances or monitoring of vote-counting involving all political parties.

Written by Africa-International Communications Political Analyst & Editor Stef Terblanche