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Kantor urges clarity on exchange control

17th February 2004

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Finance Minister Trevor Manuel should either finish his exchange control reforms in one "big bang" or set out rules for the next decade, economist Brian Kantor said on Thursday.

"I think exchange control is an affront to human dignity," the Investec investment strategist told the Cape Town Press Club.

"What you do with your savings should be your business".

He said the uncertain exchange reform process was one of the reasons the rand had been so volatile, and that this uncertainty made running a business very difficult.

"Let us get this process over with: it is very destructive," he said.

Kantor said that thanks to the medium-term budget framework, there would be no surprises in next week's Budget, and that the parameters – government spending at 28% of GDP and a tax rate of 25%- had been spelled out long ago.

There was absolutely no reasons to believe these settings would change. However there would be fine-tuning, and this would revolve around inflation.

He said government should send out the message that any wage hike or increase in benefits above four per cent would be "excessively generous".

He also said government had not been given the respect it deserved for its enterprise- and investor-friendly policies, and that this was clearly demonstrated in the market for government stock and in the currency market.

As an optimistic South African, he found this almost a personal affront.

It was frustrating to watch how the inflation rate came down long before long term interest rates followed, which reflected this pessimism and anxiety.

South Africa was investor friendly and doing all the right things, but paying a high price for scepticism.

"How do you reduce that price?" Kantor asked.

"Well, you don't go to Haiti... You may like to recognise your friends of the past, but it's an expensive affair".

Replying to a question about the effect of Aids on the economy, he said it was uncertain, but less than Aids activists would suggest.

"We can't afford to sign blank cheques for Aids," he added.

"We can't spend all our money on keeping people with Aids alive". – Sapa.
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