Reserve Bank senior deputy chief economist Brian Kahn said the CPIX would average about 5.7 percent late in 2003, and it would remain at that level in 2004.
"The expectation is that we should reach the six percent (range) in the fourth quarter," Kahn told the Bank's Monetary Policy Forum in Midrand.
"This forecast implies that there is approximately a 60 percent probability that the CPIX inflation rate will be below six percent in the final quarter of 2003."
The CPIX currently stands at 11.2 percent after declining from 11.3 percent in February. In January, the CPIX stood at 11.8 percent and it was at 12.4 percent in December 2002.
The SA Reserve Bank uses the CPIX to determine its inflation target which has been set at between three and six percent for this year.
Mboweni has indicated in the past that he will not cut interest rates until the CPIX moves rapidly toward the inflation target range.
The bank's monetary policy committee (MPC) is to again meet in June to review the repo rate. The repo is currently at 13.5 percent.
The repo is the rate which the Reserve Bank lends money to commercial banks and, in turn, determines the prime lending rate of banks, which is currently at 17 percent - Sapa
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