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Inflation slows in January

25th February 2009

By: Sapa

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Consumer-price growth (CPI) decelerated to an annual 8.1 percent in January from 9.5 percent in the previous month, Statistics SA said on Wednesday.

From December 2008 to January 2009 the Consumer Price Index for all urban areas increased by 0.4 percent, the Pretoria-based agency said.

CPI now replaces CPIX (which removed mortgage costs) as the SA Reserve Bank's targeted measure.

Commenting on the data, Nedbank economist Carmen Altenkirch said the inflation figure was "a little bit disappointing as the market was expecting an ease to 7.5 percent."

Altenkirch said she still believed that inflation would ease over the next six months and should fall below six percent towards the middle of 2009.

"Along with the deteriorating outlook for the local economy and the global scenario, the case for more aggressive rate cutting will be bolstered."

Efficient Group economist Doret Els said although CPI for January was above market consensus, the downward trend was still intact.

Els said this was "a good sign" -- however, she said Wednesday's data did not support an emergency rate cut.

"There are a few reasons for this, but importantly, an emergency rate cut could give the wrong impression such as panic -- and investor sentiment is already fragile," Els said.

She added that two-thirds of the new inflation basket was still increasing at seven percent -- "so inflation pressures are still there".

T-SEC economist Mike Schussler said he found January inflation data "rather disappointing".

"I expected it to indicate that food prices were lower -- but it looks like they've picked up speed and I'm a bit concerned about this."

The argument for an emergency rate cut was still there -- but if inflation had come in lower than eight percent, then the argument would have been stronger, he said.

"However, the governor won't work on market expectations so for him inflation has gone down -- but on the other hand he's just given us a cut of 100 basis points," Schussler said.

He added that he saw inflation back in the reserve bank's target range later this year.

 

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